Mafia 4

Yeah could well be and it seems milk hasn't been converted anyway so he was chatting ****!

 

I'm gonna get a vote on the table for nozzer

He's avoided suspicion mainly, plus if lucaaas wasn't recruiter but just mafia it's possible the recruiter is still at large and since there was no recruit with nozzer in prison it's possible he was the real recruiter.

Not the most concrete vote it has to be said!

I'm highly likely to change this but it's good to have something on the table!

 

I still think lucaaas was the recruiter and astro just chose to keep it vague, perhaps because the odds are stacked against the mafia now? Either way we'll know if there is still a recruiter out there the minute the mafia count increases by one!

I'll state it again, milk is 100% the vigilante, the investigation proved it. So the only way he could possibly not be innocent is if
A. he was recruited by the mafia, but we have no evidence of any increase in he no of mafia,
Or B. he becomes a freemason, and by some odd twist they are aligned with the mafia, which would be very odd imo.

 

Vigilante can't be converted.

MITO was the investigator, and the one investigation he completed before he was assassinated showed that Milk is the vigilante. Milk's ability to finger Lucaaas as Mafia hinges on him being recruited - he could have had no other contact with Lucaaas within the game.

Basically the known roles atm are:

Sir Tennisball - Cop
Milk - Vigilante
MITO - Investigator (deceased)
IBWT - Mafia Heavy (deceased)
Lucaaas - Mafia Recruiter (deceased)
Billy - Town (deceased)
Gerrez - Town (deceased)
brb - Town (deceased)

So we have remaining:
Swarbs
AFC
Valley
Nozzer
danilo
RHC
Bod

Two of those seven must be the Mafia hacker and assassin. Nozzer can't be the assassin.

Personally, I tend to agree with Milk that afc is suspicious, but not sure about danilo. I think he's too astute a player to make such an obvious intervention to try and save Lucaaas. I'd be more tempted to look at Valley - he was active as anyone in the early part of the game, then as soon as suspicion fell on him his posting volume fell drastically.

I vote Valley for that reason.

 

Why would he keep it vague to try and help out the mafia? We have been given roles of everyone when they die so far, why would we randomly not get the role now? The whole lucaaas identity changing depending on the source of info we go by has confused me completely...

 

Freemasons are a town aligned role. If Astro changed them to be Mafia aligned that would be very odd because you'd start with 4 Mafia, and 2 Masons (6 out of15 people)- 7 once Masons recruited someone. So they would win on day one if a townie was lynched.

Think it is safe to say Masons have their usual town-aligned role!

 

Posting volume fell because I'm busy in work. I explained last night I wouldn't be on much. Same as tomorrow until I get in from work. Can't exactly come on here when I'm teaching a class full of kids.

 

So... so far we have:


Danilo (1) .... Mummy
Nozzer (1) ... AFC
Valley (1) ... Swarbs

Is that correct?

 

I didn't mean he had been converted to mafia but rather whether he had been converted to be a Freemason.

Since milk says he wasn't recruited to the Freemasons as lucaaas said he would be I assume that means there isn't a mafia connection to the freemasons. If milk had been recruited then I'd be concerned how lucaaas called it given that there are so many possibilities of who to recruit to Freemasons.

Might be barking up a wrong tree though and just buying into lucaaas playing games on his deathbed!

 

So the mafia has the assassin and hacker left right?

The hacker has almost certainly used his hack, one of those articles was hacked. (helpful if the journo could confirm this tomorrow).
The Assassin has killed two so far, but we have no idea how many kills they get, which means anyone could still be a target.

Tomorrow we need to find that assassin!

Where I currently stand

AFC, Danilo and RHC - the three haven't been posting a lot at all, especially AFC who never usually shuts up, although he did give a reason at the start of the game as to why he would be posting less.
Danilo seems very quiet and when he does post he seems controlled and to the point. Don't know what to make of RHC really, except that he said he wanted to kill me on Day 1.
I dont think any of the three have necessarily done anything else to warrant suspicion, though it looks like some people seem to be targetting AFC now.

Valley - Still the dodgiest one imo, fake coersion claim on Day 1, also seems much less active in last 24 hours.

Milk and TB - I trust are innocent 100%

Swarbs - Probably a free mason, seems very helpful and genuinely wants to help the town, though could be an act.

Nozzer - Not sure at all. I suspect he is either the hacker or the journalist, from what he has been saying and his reaction to the articles. I am getting a strong link between he and the articles.

 

Swarbs

Reason? He's voted for me

 

Only other option i can think of is this:

Perhaps the mafia are allowed to swap roles, but have to do so before 8pm.
So lucaaas knows he's going to get lynched, and lets assume he's the recruiter. He swaps with the hacker, who has hacked once already so is either got no hacks left, or if they regenerate then at the very least is a much less important role than the recruiter. So he swaps and sacrifices the lesser role, leaving an assassin and recruiter at large.

I like my theory! SOunds like an astro type of twist! And the role is left blank to not give it away...

As a further point, i'm sure there's a penalty to swapping roles, perhaps those two roles can then not be used that night. So if my theory is right dont assume nozzer is the recruiter as no one was recruited while he was in jail...

Think about it, i think its a serious possibility, we'll only know if someone gets recruited though!

 

My top suggestion(s) for the next Journalist target tonight:

AFC (I think is guilty)/ Danilo (Not sure about- but would be my 2nd choice) / Valley (I don't think is guilty but others do- so incase I missed a clue here)


I wouldn't bother with Nozzer. He's not the assassin because the assassin struck last night- if Nozzer is Mafia he's only the hacker which is an unimportant role now. We take the assassin out before the journalist is killed and it is game over for the Mafia- impossible for them to win at that time.

 

Time for some dinner, I'll be back on tonight though

 

There are 9 people left alive.

Including:
1 Cop
1 Journalist
2 Masons
1 Useless Vigilante

1 Mafia Hacker
1 Mafia Assassin

2 No role townies.
5 of us have town roles- that's over half the town. Should Nozzer end up being the journalist (no paper at 10am) then I propose we put all our cards on the table.


If there is no paper at 10am then everyone will know Nozzer is journalist. If there is a paper he is probably no role town OR Mafia Hacker.

So if no paper we throw our cards on the table at that point... we have 5 known town. 4 Unknowns. With exceptions to assassinations- Known Town can win the vote every day. We may be picked off at night one at a time- but we can win any vote against the 2 Mafia.




If there is a paper- we keep our cards covered... no reason to risk the journalist.

 

I'd say Nozzer is a wasted vote. He's not the assassin. At worst only the hacker. Hacker is essentially unimportant now.

If we take out the assassin there is no possible way for mafia to win the game anymore. Removing the Hacker from the game would be nice- but wouldn't end the game.

Assassin dead = town win.(because of known innocents outnumbering Mafia- and no way for Mafia to kill known innocents).

We don't need to kill the hacker- he's a red herring. A vote for Nozzer is a wasted vote because he is either Hacker or Town- either way he is not the droid we're looking for.

 

If the masons recruit 1 person and that person is not mafia, we have a 5 person block in a 9 man town. So of the remaining 4 people we can lynch two and i can arrest two, minimising assassinations considerably. Tricky part is knowing that none of the masons are mafia.

Alternatively add the journalist to the innocent block, but how do we know 100% someone is who they claim they are? No one can back up the journo's story, right?

 

No one thinks this theory is likely then? If there is still a recruiter out there it changes everything.

 

journo could identify himself in his article, then we'd know for sure

 

It's possible, given Astro's tendency to **** with us, I suppose, but we have no way of knowing unless we get lucky with the lynch vote tomorrow or someone is recruited to mafia.