I'll start off this thread with a preview from Timeform Cesarewitch Preview: Mor to come from Quinn’s versatile charge By Timeform's Joe Rendall -- published 7th October 2014 Joe Rendall looks ahead to a wide-open renewal of Newmarket’s prestigious staying handicap on Saturday... As the nights begin to draw in and the weather turns decidedly autumnal, racing fans tend to do one of two things. A small minority choose between sustained exposure to all-weather racing or long term hibernation until the turf season rolls round again. Those who remain, the vastly preferable option in my opinion, must turn their mind to the fast-approaching jumps season. Saturday’s Cesarewitch, apart from being an intriguing puzzle in its own right, is a helpful stepping stone in the adjustment process. Jumps trainers and horses are often in the mix for the valuable staying contest, helping to stir the memory banks of national hunt form that have lain dormant since April, and this year is no different. Dual-purpose performer Quick Jack is the current ante-post favourite for the race, and although handler Tony Martin has issued a warning that his participation is very much ground-dependent, the fact he’s half the price of everything in the field means he is a logical starting point. A look through his recent form with five wins and four placed efforts from his last nine starts will tell you he’s consistent. The fact his Timeform rating has jumped from 72 to 104 on the flat and 102 to 130p over jumps in that period will tell you he’s progressive too. He’s won over an extended two miles at Cheltenham so shouldn’t struggle with the 18-furlong trip he encounters at Newmarket and his win when last seen at Galway in July proves he’s effective off the back of a break as well. It looks as though he’s a clear favourite for a reason then, and I would struggle to put you off backing him if you were so inclined. I do think there is a better bet in the race though. We won’t have to look far either, as nestled just below Quick Jack in the market at around double the price is Swnymor. He’s another dual-purpose performer, and to tie things off rather neatly his key piece of form with regards to Saturday’s race is his sixth behind Quick Jack. It came in the aforementioned race at the Galway Festival, and in truth Swnymor was unlucky not to finish a lot closer. Having been dropped out early he found himself with a fair amount to do two furlongs out, and was forced very wide around the home turn. The manner in which he kept on to the line and the fact he finished with plenty of running left both suggest there was a good deal more to come on that occasion, and had he got more luck he might be a good deal shorter in the Cesarewitch betting than he is now. However that’s no hardship for us and as you suspect this race has been the plan ever since, he looks an excellent each-way bet at odds of around 14/1. There is a long list of interesting contenders as there always are for these types of contest, not least Big Easy and Ray Ward who occupied second and third respectively in the designated trial over course and distance a fortnight or so ago. Big Easy, another dual-purpose performer,ran a fine race to fill the runner-up spot and might have reversed the narrow margin of victory had he not been forced to delay his effort at a crucial stage. Nevertheless it was a creditable effort on the back of four months off the track, and should have him primed for Saturday’s big race. The only worry is whether his bottomless stamina might see him caught for a bit of toe by some of the speedier types. Any significant rainfall would certainly help his chances but there’s enough doubts surrounding his speed to look elsewhere. Ray Ward heads the list out out-and-out flat performers and was a close third at Newmarket last time, also putting in creditable performance on the back of a break. He’s had a more conventional route to the Cesarewtich having finished second in the marathon Goodwood Stakes prior to that, and his stamina clearly isn’t in doubt. In truth he’s looked an ideal candidate for this race since shaping better than his sixth suggested in the Ascot Stakes back in June, and it’s unlikely we’ve seen the best of him over staying trips. He’s sure to be suited by the stronger gallop he will get on Saturday and few will be stronger at the finish, and I’ve no doubt he will feature in many ante-post portfolios. The only concern I’d have about backing him at this stage is that he’s raced only on good going or firmer, and with the forecast looking unsettled for the next few days he may not encounter ideal conditions. We must also give a mention to Nearly Caught, who ran a decent race in the Ebor last time considering he was overcoming a three-month absence and found the emphasis to be too much on speed. He would be suited if conditions were on the easy side as his best turf form has been on ground softer than good and the extra two furlongs are likely to play to his strengths too. The fact he’s only had three runs in almost a year niggles slightly, either because he’s more ground dependent than his form has shown or he doesn’t have the strongest constitution. Either way, whilst he remains of interest you feel those previously discussed are within the same price bracket and make better appeal at this stage. Interesting contenders with form in both codes is not unusual for a Cesarewitch market and to pick out a single ante-post proposition has been harder this week than most. However, in Swnymor we have a horse who is talented, equipped with the right blend of speed and stamina, and arrives off the back of an eye-catching effort with the potential for better. Recommendation: Back Swnymor E/W in the Cesarewitch
"Timeform View Swnymor had appealed as the type to go well but a wide draw has traditionally been a negative in this, despite the marathon trip, and it may pay to look elsewhere, with the progressive Quick Jack taken to remain a step ahead of the handicapper and provide Tony Martin with a second win in the race. Nearly Caught, who has Ryan Moore up, Communicator and Big Easy are others for the shortlist. Timeform 1-2-3 1: QUICK JACK (11) 2: NEARLY CAUGHT (5) 3: COMMUNICATOR (13)" Bit of a turn round considering Swnymor is Timeform top rated and HIF. Does the draw make that much difference over 18f? I'm going for Swnymor and Nearly Caught, both 14/1
Never Can Tell won from wide but generally it is a major disadvantage to be draw out wide. He won because he got to the front and came central. A wide draw over further is just as big a problem as over a sprint trip. Unless you have all the pace around you and good cover.
Very rare to find only one three year old contesting the Cesarewitch marathon. Having had a good win on the mare Nevercantell in 2011 - and seeing that another mare, Scatter Dice, win last year- I'm very interested in Groovejet, the only three year old filly in tomorrow's race. The improvement she has shown since the end of last year is quite outstanding. After winning an Auction Maiden in November last year, she completed a hat-trick by winning twice more on the all-weather- based on a rating of 75 for her last win. She then ran down the field when stepping up to Class 1 from her previous Class 4, but showed improvement in another Class I when beaten 4 lengths by Eastern Belle at Newbury. Her trainer then decided to step her up to 12 furlongs from her previous races at around 10-11 furlongs. She ran a decent third behind Noble Protector and Criteria in another Class 1 (Newmarket). Two weeks later, she stepped up to 14 furlongs and ran really well to be 5th (beaten only 2.5 lengths by Missunited) in the Group 3 Lily Langtree Stakes at Goodwood- with last years Oaks winner,Talent, only half a length in front of her. She was then given a rest, but turned out last month to run a great second in the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster, beaten 5 lengths by Cumani's improving filly Silk Sari- with Criteria (who had beaten her 9 lengths two months earlier)- two lengths back in third. Groovejet went into that Park Hill race off 96 and keeps that rating for tomorrow(Up to 101 for future races). Note that she's rated 2lbs higher than the favourite, Quick Jack, who must concede her 10 lbs. As a vastly improved three year old filly, her weight of 8st 4lbs must give her an outstanding chance, and the way she stayed on at Doncaster suggests she'll get the extra 4 furlongs on the easier track. Selection: Groovejet (Nap)- 3.50 Newmarket Cesarewitch. Best Price 28/1 (Bet Victor)
Disappointed to hear Australia has been retired (due to an infection in his hoof) and therefore will miss Champions day next week.
Amazing how these Coolmore horses develop such "problems". Never happened to Sea The Stars or Frankel. Makes you wonder whether they are doing something wrong? Or are they just greedy bastards who don't give a flying **** about the sport, the racing public and the desire to have the top horses runnung in the top races. In their business-like manner they probably decided his stud vaule wouldn't be enhanced by winning at Ascot so decided not to risk a potential defeat. Very sad, also that a 4YO career is not considered. Hopefully he'll prove fertile at stud wouldn't want another George Washington on their hands.
It had already been mentioned that they were going to bottle running in the champions stakes in favour of the QE2. A decision that was obviously made as they wouldn't be up against Kingman so they could try and mop up another below par group 1 race. We just need to think ourselves lucky that sea the stars wasn't trained by them. We would never have seen him win all those group 1s!
One favourite in the last ten years. Last two years, it's been won by 66/1 shots. It does look like a pinstickers race indeed, and a bookies benefit to boot. But on the other hand, surely a Tony Martin trained fav in a big handicap like this, kept back for this since winning at Galway, has to go close. Quick Jack e/w, with most bookies paying 5 places. Bet to nothing, surely? Even in this annual charge-of-the-light-brigade re-enactment, the fav has to win sometimes.
And War Command is already there ..... On the plus side, if you watched The Morning Line - it was nice to see Sadlers Wells again, looking so fit and spritely
Absolute shocker of a race. Old adage, when in doubt, go for the top ones. Saddler's Rock. Brass Ring.
After the Cambridgeshire debacle, it was ironic that there were two reserves for the Cesarewitch. In a race over more than two miles, can there really be a draw disadvantage? I quite like the look of Sheikh Rashid’s Rhombus, with Cam Hardie virtually eliminating the penalty, at an each-way price in a race where presumably the money will pile on Tony Martin’s favourite Quick Jack with Richard Hughes up. If the rain arrives that will not be an inconvenience and the jockey is 2-2 on him (admittedly in small fields), so the question mark is the extra quarter mile further than he has been previously.
Would agree in sprints or maybe middle-distance events, Cyc, but this is a hell of a long way to lug a top weight? For myself, I did an extensive in-depth study of this marathon lasting a good 90 seconds and decided, sod it! In other words, haven't a bloody clue........as usual! ......but if somebody put a gun to my head, well.......Ray Ward!
