Prodding around with a stick is different to actually accusing anyone I'll pick up on little things that could have potential importance, but have only given reasons for being slightly suspicious of two people. I have no idea who is mafia and who is KGB yet! But the more people talk, the more chance they have of slipping up
well we've 4 people up. maybe 5. we all know there's no reason to actually suspect any of them barring the crumb afc did point out which could be nothing or something... so once we're all happy fine but I still reserve the right to change vote if we see some later changes. I still think it'd be silly to do so. last game we had one person (nozzer) vote 6 times and never his a mafia. this time my count is so far a total of 2 changed votes (all on brb btw) so there is much less activity. Does that tell us something.... perhaps... 2 whole changes and only 3 hours to go? its a very different game this time if nothing else. Are we learning anything by doing this. We've 5 up potentially if one vote comes in. 10 of us have no votes and can sit back..... including me.... in fact i should sit back cos if i dare to change it i suspect i'd get a pile of votes onto me. so some scenarios: 1. We have a mafia or a kgb or even both up for lynch vote. thier teams have voted elsewhere to get the tie and are happy enough to do so. there are 5 potential votes to spread around. 2. we've no mafia or kgb up. they can simply spread around and avoid controversy. since 9am what have we learned? the table shows who voted first in each perosn's case including me voting first for sky. table alos shows who cam in later and joined in. Should we not just do something? yes/no? I can sit back now and survive to day 2 baring i get assassinated.
Problem is, no one has really done anything that suspicious as it stands right now, so unless there are some last minute vote changes, we have to just pray that one of the 4/5 is mafia or KGB and that we get them in the coin toss, as of now, if someone is lynched and are innocent we learn nothing, though I get Astros theory that we learn nothing either way if we just all pile our votes onto one person. So we just have to hope that we get lucky!
ermmmmm....Now ok the mafia and kgb will be voting away from each other or have suggested others etc... forget that for a moment. If i did the calculations right i figured out that theres a very big chance of getting one mafia out of the 5 selections made. its more than 99% if i did it right. so 99% x 20% is bascially still 20% just about when i calculated the chance of picking 3 times and finding no mafia or kgb at all at 4.4% so i multiplied 1/3 chance n lynch by 95.65 chance of having one in = 31% chance.... thats all if i calculated it right and why i asked if anyone could double check. In either case there is a big chance still of an innocent being lynched which we all should expect on day one and the point of the tie in votes is to see if someone gies something a way somewhere.
If it's all looking like staying still we could always switch who the five people for the chop are... Can't see everyone agreeing to that though... Particularly if we are all innocent and up for the chop
But surely even if one mafia or KGB is in the 5 way coin toss, the others aren't going to rush to their defence and incriminate themselves AND the person they have saved, surely it would make more sense to let them take their chances in the 5 way and hope that the coin toss means someone else gets lynched? If it was a 2 way toss, it would make the mafia more panicked to try save them, then again, if its a 2 way toss, there is much less chance of a mafia even being involved! I have a head ache.
this is true and why i say i should do nothing as i feel I should be changing my vote and get someone in the mix but if i do i'll be viewed totally suspiciously or even the mafia/kgb can attack me on the back of it as its convenient.... At the outset i thought I could but i find now the risk of trying to get something going is high and wondering if i should. The key thing you just said is we learn nothing by an innocent lynch. I get astro theory but the thing is if we changed now and everyone flipped thier votes and put say 2 different people up would someone do something different or give something up. I am thinking back to day 3. it gets so obvious that someone is accused and people start voting the other way. surely given I've voted for sky, then you, then gerrez and nothings come of it does that mean nobody cares or have i missed the action... or have you and gerrez used my vote to your own ends. I dunno.... at least there are 5 games up.
Yeah it tells us nozzer isn't involved Basically I've convinced (myself) that a spread of 5 or 6 gives us a good chance of a hit or at least inducing some kind of late shenanigans. Despite the maths saying 3 gives us a better chance I'm not sure that takes into account the human nature element we discussed last game. If we only had three I'd be more worried that we are missing the chance to pressure the mafia/KGB and their bosses.
If Tobes was playing he'd get voted for the lynching and get shot by both sides just to make sure [video=youtube;ybUqM8jf3mU]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybUqM8jf3mU[/video] (not sure but I might have used the same gag last game ) #worthrepeating
as below. day one is just that headache. I would change but the easy way out is right here... don't do a thing and let it ride. In general astro already said it 5 way? I'd prob take the chance too... but if its your assassin up would you? I mean its easy tie it up and even get to 5 people not 4 or 3. just following the votes in. I tred the same calculation. in a 2 man vote we have 40% chance and 35% chance of getting a mafia up. thats not bad. 14% chance actually of not getting one? I still reserve the right nowto change my vote if i see things change. I think anyone breaking the tie will be first favorite for lynching tomorrow which might not be the best plan.
Does this mean we presume those who vote early and don't change are more likely townies? As long as we have a valid reason for it of course.... I think this is a dangerous assumption (to a certain extent). Some people actually do have lives and can't track the thread anywhere near as much. At this point I'd like to point out I've got a shed load of work on tomorrow and wed's and won't be on as much
Last time round we had several instances of mafia voting and then disappearing for the rest of the day. So I wouldn't presume people who vote early and don't change to be innocent.
