Bid you're looking at it wrong. The whole idea of getting 5 up is to see if anyone panics last minute. Getting 5 up for coin toss or only 1 with all votes, you still have same chance of hitting a Mafia and we're still more likely to hits townie but if we have managed to randomly get 2 from same side up for a 5 way vote they will panic as it puts one of theirs in big danger.
I wouldn't start crying over a 4/5 way coinflip. The survival odds are good. It's only dangerous if you are so important that your team would be crippled without you.
see what i said. I feel the majority have voted. we've ended up where we are which is the first step... the question is what next. we've 5.5hours and unless we all sit here bullshitting.... well we try and see if we can pull some action out. I want to point out again like in set up thread 1. focus on table is wrong. who's not got a vote... why not... why vote for them at all/ don't just throw a vote as someone already voted for. right now 2/3 of game including me have zero votes. 2. is a 5 way vote good or bad? would a mafia team say hey you take the chance to their member as its a 1/5 chance of death. should it be 3 people.. you tell me I don't know yet. 3. Its a crap shoot, nothing personal so far and no evidence on anyone up on the list or not on the list. So whats step 2... stay as we are, change it, if so how?
thats a good point so see my post 263 which i wrote as you wrote yours... perhaps the next step is to reduce count being voted for if you feel the risk of 20% chance is too low. I'll keep throwing suggestions out anyway.
But then with less people in the flip there is less chance any mafia are in there in the first place...
maybe so... none are great options and we are discussing openly how to panic a mafia after all... but its all we can do. 5 way - 20% chance of lynch. very high change of atleast one mafia in there 4 way 25% change of lynch... still 90% plus chance of mafia 3 way? 33% chance of lynch... how big a chance of mafia? Can anyone confirm my odds?
If we went for less people, how do we decide who to go for? For now I'd like to see how danilo and magic vote... But if they are only going to be on very late in the game...
Also those percentages assume we pick the people in the coin toss completely at random, but we know that isn't the case as some people have information on who is or isn't mafia or KGB. So I think there is less chance of mafia than the 90+%
There is no way to calculate the success rate of mafia/kgb influence on the vote. That's why the 1 vote per person strategy is perfect because it puts all bad guys at risk and doesn't give anyone the opportunity to hide. The chance of hitting an important mafia day on is 0% because the other two will easily protect them unless you do 1 vote each.
Ding ding ding you finally get the point, bad guys have information which they can use to their advantage. Only a 1 vote per person system removes the advantage of their information.
Out of interest if we reduce the numbers isn't it easier for mafia/KGB not to have to fix the voting? If we had 3 people up for the chop and none were mafia/kgb surely they'd have no need to vote rig and we'd potentially learn nothing. By spreading it more, surely we have a greater chance of making them panic vote.
Which is what I thought we were going for from the off Aren't we at risk of making the same mistakes as last game and learning nothing from the first day?
Right I get it now.......I didn't take in to account that the 6 baddies each know 100% which 3 other people aren't townies (ie the rest of their team). A little slow on the uptake here. Still doesnt make our chances great, but its better than a 2 way vote. Still, I voted for Sky for no reason other than to throw him in to the mix, if he goes and is innocent I will still feel guilty.
It was going fine until lucaaas voted for me to make it uneven! And it all spiralled out of control from there Don't think I'd be happy if we end up with less people in the coin toss. Different people? Sure. More people? Sure. But not less, I think it is too easy this early on for the mafia otherwise.
I google this stuff and found: "The calculation yr is called a Hypergeometric Distribution. This calculates your chances of drawing a particular number of "successes" from a population, without replacement." I then groaned as it meant going in deep. (oooh matron moment there) it is easier do it as simply ignore i want to find exactly the odds of finding one mafia and then instead come at it the opposite way... the odds on each draw of not hitting a mafia = 6/15 in first pick. even if its not random theres no reason it to be picked and if milk went random for who is who then in effect someone selecting gerrez as a joke is as random as any other selection... Pick 1 = 6/15 chance of not being mafia pick 2 = 5/14 chance (why 5? well if one assumes gerrez is guilty as first vote and movtes on to find another you still have 5 to find but only 14 to pick out of.) and so on then the odds of all of the 5 picks not being mafia is multiply all odds togeter (6x5x4x3x2)/(15x14x13x12x11) = very very small percentage. 0.1% then a 20% change of success on lynch a 3 way woudl be (6x5x4)/ (15x14x13) = 4.4% chance of not hitting mafia x 33% change then of lynch anyone concurr on this maths?
yes you'd be right so come nearer the vote i'd say if nobody does anything its a sign we've not got it right and we'd end up having to change. Which risks suspicion on ourselves too.
Go for lucaaas instead then! He's done the same thing he did last time when he was mafia, vote early, for no reason, then disappear from the thread until nightfall. His vote was the first to break the one vote per person idea. He is the single person who has probably done something a bit suspicious so far and he is getting away easily at the moment
I've learned this game is ridiculously complicated! I'm just glad I'm not in the Mafia or KGB so I don't have to keep track of anything other than voting... #worstbluffever
i see from what astro said actually that there is another point. actually forget the 1 vote tactics... what you've said is that the 3 mafia know there are 12 others who are not their team so they will vote outside team however the rub is they can still hit 3 other bad guys in that 12. yes this is important and frankly buried somewhere in the votes are they guys we are after. Its how do we sort them out from the rest
