Far too early the shouts will go out, you must be mad others will scream.... I would want that a price on a horse to even run at the festival blar blar blar. Love a bit of ante post action / speculation and the interesting debates sparked. Nothing better than arriving at the festival with some running for you at very fancy prices! To kick things off: For the Arkle Paddy power are standout 7s for Vautour with Un de Sceaux 5s. They are the only bookmaker with UDS as favourite. The two seem to be quite closely matched on Betfair. Can we read anything into that? UDS is my joker in the Ricci pack but Vautour seems is the current intended Arkle horse. Paddy are also 3-1 worst price by miles for Faugheen for the Champion. Wondering if they have had some decent bets struck or just dont want to take him on? Ive had a small wager on the double (Vautour Arkle, Faugheen Champion)... around 34-1
Some nice early prices knocking around for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and a couple I like the look of e/w are Taquin de Seuil at 25/1 (Bet 365) and Carlingford Lough at 33/1 (Totesport among others). I also think Defy Logic could add some much-needed depth to the 2 mile chase division and Sky Bet's 33/1 for the Champion Chase is a decent e/w proposal.
I think it was more the heavy ground Boris - AP eased him when his chance had gone. Trainer reports him in good nick
I think it says everything about ante-post betting re the Cheltenham Festival right now when you have old girl Annie Power being quoted for 6 races! Yes, I did type that correctly – 6 races. I may be in the minority but I firmly believe that the addition of these ‘new’ races has done little but totally dilute the product and turn ante-post betting into guesswork in so many instances as you are wagering not only on the horse winning but where they will run as well! In many cases even the connections don’t know until the Sunday before the meeting. Sorry to me such a gloom merchant it’s just that I think the Executive have ripped the meeting apart in order to earn a bit more loot. Re the CGC, incidentally, amazing to think that currently you can back at least 8 animals, level stakes, and still make a profit if any one of these wins!
Mala Beach was one of my favs last season, Elliot said he would make a nice chaser. Thinking RSA could be the race for him but not in the betting.
Agree with those questioning the sanity of speculating this early. However there is always an exception to the rule and that leads me to Taquin Du Seuil at 25s in the CGC. Reasoning: - trainer came out almost immediately after his JLT win and stated next year's target is this race. - his JLT win was IMHO better than the bare form. Unsuitable ground, powered up the hill, AP was in bits on the day following a fall on the Wednesday and couldn't provide his normal assistance in the saddle. - will be better over a longer trip - for me there are huge question marks over the the current top 6 in the betting. All that and the fact that he's a fine specimen of a horse. What could possibly go wrong.
TDS For me not a gc horse a king George yes and have had him @ 20/1 for KG but would not be touching him for the Gc
Been backing the VAUTOUR : Arkle and FAUGHEEN : Champion Hurdle for a few months now. Also on then singles. I like Champagne Fever in the Gold Cup too.
You been spying on my ante-post bets mate?! I suppose you've backed Allez Colombieres for the Supreme, No More Heroes for the Albert Bartlett and Tell me More in the Neptune too have ya
Nope Beefy ...............not yet I like Black Hercules for the Albert Bartlett - looks a stayer I also have a few nibbles on O'Faolains Boy for the Gold Cup, the last 2 RSA Chase winners have went onto win the Gold Cup the following year
Oh forgot to say I've been sticking More of That in a few daft multiples too. Not hugely enamoured to read Jonjo talking about schooling him over fences at some point. That can wait a season Jonjo, trust me
My Tent Or Yours 12/1 for the Arkle Should My Tent Or Yours prevail, he is likely to stay hurdling, but Henderson warned: "If he doesn't win, then I think we're running for next year's Arkle." I hope they go over fences with him, think he could be a beast in the 2 mile division and they wouldnt get near him in the Arkle.
On 15th March this year i put an ante post lucky 15 on: Arkle - Vautour 5/1 Champion Chase - Sprinter Sacre 5/2 Champion Hurdle - Un De Sceaux 10/1 Gold Cup - Cue Card 16/1 I don't know what the thinking behind it was at the time but have surprised myself with my CH and CGC picks
I'd be utterly stunned to see Defy Logic or My Tent Or Yours win a Grade1 Cheltenham Festival event, especially chasing. They both have similar characteristics- they are too keen, too often, and as a consequence not likely to enjoy the Cheltenham hill. My Tent is never a chaser in a million years.
Tend to agree about both Toppy and part of me thinks My Tent or Yours will be the new Granduoet if sent chasing. If he couldn't get past Champagne Fever up the hill not sure how he'll get near, never mind past, Vautour. I'd go as far as saying he'll never win at Cheltenham. He's a flat track horse, never in a million years is he a Festival animal. That hill finds him out every time. Nicky's best novice chaser will be Josses Hill but he's obviously going to find it very tough to beat Vautour.
I did a piece a while back about how no horse since the turn of the millennium who finished 2nd in a Champion Hurdle has gone on to win so much as win a Graded raced over fences. The record of these horses is simply dire when switched to the big ‘uns and I just could not see My Tent improving on that as he has never, to my eye, looked like a chaser. Personally I can never understand why they haven’t tried My Tent or Yours on the level. His ability to travel and then quicken would, in my view, see him take high rank in this discipline plus the faster pace would ensure that his ‘keenness’ wouldn’t be such a hindrance as it is over hurdles. His performance in a ‘Bumpers For Jumpers’ Flat race at Kempton earlier in the term when he brushed aside the 90 rated Ranjaan with total contempt indicated his potential I feel. Agree that Josses Hill is the one of Mr Henderson's for novice chasing this term. But don't forget Cocktails At Dawn who I've been raving about for 2 years now. Fences are what he wants and this term he will get to devour them.
