They are through?..WTF. Oscar Pistorious should hire the Celtic legal team..they lost both legs and still got a victory...
I agree Mick, but he must accept and for the sake of retaining credibility admit the prospect of defeat with regard retaining the pound in a monetary union as it is not within his power to enforce such a thing. His insisting that he will retain the pound is just eroding his credibility and exposing his lack of political competency and maturity. A statement like I have made above would at the first instance maintain his position by say ' I expect the negotiations to look somewhat different after the referendum in the event of a yes vote, should they not however we will establish a viable alternative from these options. He is essentially exposing his own shortcomings as a politician and the shortcomings of his campaign by naively insisting on something that everyone without exception knows he does not have within his own power to deliver, and that is ill thought through. It's like me saying I am going without any shadow of a doubt become manager of Manchester United. It's simply not mine to decide and people would laugh at me for even suggesting a certainty that is not mine to decide. His whole argument actually revolves around things that he does not control. Alex Salmond is going to retain the pound( not his choice), Join the European union (not his choice), join Nato (not his choice) and fund the greatest and most generous social experiment ever seen by oil being sold at x amount and flowing for x years at x rate. (also things he cannot control). In all of these things he has no plan B and that exposes him as a ill thought through politician. The No campaign's strength is that they already have a currency, already part of EU and Nato and have an economy not reliant on one commodity to balance the books. Should the Royal bank of Scotland and certain other companies move south after a yes vote, should Alex not get a monetary union, should he not get automatic EU entry and end up caught in a long drawn out process to join, Alex Salmond could end up looking anything but Braveheart, he could look like the man who just made a calamitous decision and can only tell his supporters ' I thought they were bluffing '.
Not quite. The brown envelope to Mr Platini was obviously quite substantial. Awarded a 3-0 win because their opponents turned out a dodgy substitute for three minutes, they go through on away goals after losing 6-1 on aggregate. Salmond will be getting UEFA in to count the vote in September. Salmond is a socialist but unlike those in the Mediterranean countries he has hindsight to help him. The Euro is ostensibly the Deutschemark but shared by the countries that Germany seeks to govern. No Blitzkrieg, no tanks this time. The problem for those countries is that they cannot possibly live within Germany’s financial structure; and since they cannot devalue they are all doomed to failure. Salmond says that he can keep the pound but he cannot have monetary union. If he joins the Euro he is doomed to become the next Celtic Tiger, bailed out by Germany. An independent Scotland can invent its own currency (we will keep the pound) and he can watch the currency speculators destroy it in a matter of weeks (anybody remember the Exchange Rate Mechanism collapse? George Soros is rubbing his hands already). At the next debate, why does Alistair Darling not just tell the Jocks the reality here: Salmond is the self destruct button. Perhaps lots of Americans will visit to buy the whisky like they visit Cuba to buy Fidel Castro’s cigars – while Gloria Estefan lives in Miami. It is a dog eat dog world; and Alex Salmond is wearing a marrowbone jockstrap. Exactly. Just like the markets hate uncertainty and dropped like a stone when Obama announced bombing Iraq.
Hey QM, nice to see the upcoming "vote" is getting some attention here. Most of what is happening over there is well above my head, but that's never stopped me from embarrassing myself in the past. I've not seen any of the debates and know little on the subject, but have been wondering why Scotland can't invent it's own currency? Most of the world has done so. Can the then floating of the new currency be such a bad thing? I don't know if they need to be part of the greater Euro or not, or if then can in some way find a way to link in. But even if they went alone with a floated currency, would they really get a pounding? I suppose their would be massive problems to overcome when it came to cross boarder trading with England, as the two countries are so closely tied, but is it an unsolvable issue? I don't think George Soros will be a thorn in Scotland's side though. George ripped the heart out of the Bank of England because of faulty Government policy. Britain went into the ERM with aims well beyond her reach. In the lead up to the joining of the ERM, she'd tried to stay within reach of the Mark, and upon signing up, she quickly found herself behind the eight ball. With exchange rates tied, the ERM became a target for speculators as they thought it would struggle against the forces of the markets. It didn't take long before Britain saw the train wreck coming their way. In an effort to attract people to the pound, the government raised the interest rates into the teens. (It didn't help that inflation was through the roof either.) It couldn't last, the artificial propping up of the economy was costing Britain billions. They had little option but to pull the plug on the ERM. Soros and his ilk were little more that shrewd investors that saw that the crap was about to hit the fan, and began to "short" the currency.
Ok, so Salmond cannot share the pound because he would have no control over interest rates, so when interest rates rose in England – as they surely will do in the next couple of years – the Jocks would just have to put up with it. At the moment, the UK borrows money in the same manner that any other country does: bonds and gilts. The Jocks would have to start borrowing for themselves; and given the demographic and social make-up of Scotland, they would not get rates as cheap as England/Wales/NI but more like the hefty rates of Portugal and Spain because of the risk involved. That means lots of the oil money going in interest repayments. Speculators would soon be able to turn on the new Jock currency because Salmond has already indicated that he is going to spend all of their wealth on their Welfare State. If he is forced to abandon socialism to spend the money underpinning his currency, he would quickly find that those Jocks not tied to the country would head south of the border leaving him running a country composed of the retired, the benefit dependents and the folks up in Aberdeen running the oil industry. Plus he would still owe the remainder of the United Kingdom for the eighty per cent of his banks that we bailed out – although they may have moved from Edinburgh to London to evade his clutches. If George Soros was able to wipe the floor with Norman Lamont, I do not envisage him having too much trouble with whichever Jock Salmond gives the purse strings – look what a wretched job Gordon Brown made of the UK economy when times were good.
So tomorrow is the big day - any predictions? I say a bigger than expected majority for the No vote, perhaps 56-44 or even 58-42. Fall out for Scotland A very divided Scotland in danger of becoming more like Northern Ireland, should a small 'No' majority be returned I can easily see civil disturbance beginning in Glasgow and Edinburgh. Alex Salmond's Nationalist dream could end up tearing a sharp divide where there was not one previously. I feel he had to appeal to nationalistic sentiments and passion as he had so little going for him but the price is he has stirred up a passionate and possibly violent gang who will not accept the result peacefully. Fall out for RUK I feel Camaron panicked and this looks bad, even worse he has promised things that he will need deliver but will be unjustifiable. How can he justify treating Scotland more favourably from the public purse than England, Wales or NI. The reason it got tight is that Darling was the wrong man, a more able man would have made Salmond look like he is, a nationalist motivated by the same, looking for a place in history. My view is the argument for both sides deserved to be put so much better.
Sounds a bit apocalyptic Blue - Scotland descending into Civil War? I truly hope not, but if it does happen it will add fuel to the argument of those who are against such a referendum (the Spanish PM for one). Almost any political argument these days deserves to be put better - the modern politician cannot hold a light to the stalwarts of yesteryear. I blame the boarding schools.
If the vote is no, can't the Jocks just wear it and hope for the future? That's pretty much what has happened here since the 1999 referendum. The thinking here is that as the older brigade pass away, it will just be a matter of time before we get a yes vote.
I agree Cyc, It will not be a yes vote now but in perhaps 20 years there will likely be a shift. It's a little like the Catalonians who never really had much of an appetite for full independence until the financial crisis which hit Spain hardest after Greece. So if the UK is doing well the Scots will likely wait but if we find ourselves struggling there will be enough groundwork already done to get a yes vote. My own view is that the idea of nationalism is on it's way out. In a few years it won't matter what idea you have of belonging to a tribe the world will be sufficiently global and it will count for little beyond flags and romance for the simple.
Personal opinion, I think it will go "No". Surely if you are "undecided" you will be more likely to vote No in preference of "better the devil you know". Leaving the Union would be a huge shame, we have so much shared history. My grandfather was Scottish through and through, we had a rebellious ancestor killed at the Battle of Flodden
Six weeks or so ago, the polls had the “No” vote winning 60-40, but the “No” campaign have been complacent until it started to get close. When one single poll gave the “Yes” vote the lead, the Westminster heavyweights headed North of the Border, which given their unpopularity everywhere was probably a mistake. I still think that the “No” vote will prevail. Then I wonder where next for Alex Salmond. His goose will not just be cooked it will have been torched. The “No” campaign have squandered numerous opportunities to bury Salmond by not getting him in a situation where he had to say what he would do when RUK starts playing hard ball on Friday morning and he faces years trying to get into the EU and also having to find £400m to fill the NHS funding gap because he will not cut anything. After eighteen months of Alex Salmond, the “No” campaign should just tell everyone to vote “No” to shut him up on Friday! If it is a “No” vote, I do not see great unrest in Scotland. Both sides had their argument, they had a vote and whichever way it goes they still all have to live together (at least temporarily). For the rest of us the most important thing is that this has stirred up debate all over the UK and I think that in the future we may be living in a much more federal country as regions demand more autonomy. In population terms, I think that Yorkshire is bigger than Scotland, so if the “No” vote gets the Jocks some Devo-Max, why not everyone else? The Spanish PM will be delighted to see a “No” vote because that will put a bit of a dampener on the Catalonians. They are the rich part of Spain and do not like subsidising the poor parts now that the wheels have come off the European integration project. There will not be another Independence referendum for more than a couple of generations.
I hope you are right PN. I know people who are quite apprehensive about going to the polling stations tomorrow - not because of the decision they have to make but because of the antics of some of the supporters of independence. Fortunately my vote was a postal one and I've voted. Hopefully on Friday morning I will still be living in a country that is united and great.
I just think this is a very sad day. That this vote is actually taking place makes no sense to me and it makes me feel very sad. Having said that as there is a vote and as so many people want to leave the UK then I strongly hope that the YES campaign wins. I don't think anyone who cares about the UK or England can want anything else. The alternative looks diabolical to me.
Just about off to the polling station. Still in glow of another FC Bayern victory of Manchester City! Freistaat Schottland!!
One of the sad things is I don't think too many people cared that much but because the nationalists led by Alex Salmond cared a huge amount a political movement started which has persuaded people of a grievance that was not felt by many. This grievance may divide now rather than unite. This is how the referendum came about. I blame Mel Gibson
