OT: Mafia game thread starts Sunday 8pm 14/9/14

as a number lover there are two things here.

1. the odds of both occurring IF they were related are long

2. the odds in this game are not related to the odds of the last game as it was a random pick. that means it is like a coin toss. if you toss a coin and get heads its 50/50 toss it again its 50/50 so the odds are 1/15.

do not take this as me influencing on way or the other you guys know numbers are utterly irresistible to me.

 

Unless the don wasn't around when sky told is hash was innocent and they had already committed to killing hash?

 

Any thoughts from those who haven't voted on what way they are being swayed currently?

 

The reason I think afcftw is innocent is because I have insight the rest of you dont.
His last minute vote change WASNT to protect me because I know I am innocent and he would have had no reason to push RHC under the bus in favour of me unless he thought RHC was mafia and I was innocent.
If he IS mafia, he just sacrificed one innocent for another, which makes no sense.

I am slowly getting a sense of the mafia people, and its the people who are now voting for afcftw, just as they voted for Magic in the last round.

 

I think this shows where we're at quite prominently. We've done the scatter gun approach and lost RHC. We've liaised and lynched Magic. The votes are now spread fairly evenly without too much discussion having taken place. Basically, we don't appear to be any closer to nailing the Mafia.

I'm interested to see how the other four remaining players vote before making my decision. I certainly have no intention of pinning anyone inparticular, I'd actually like to see the votes spread out as they are so we can watch for a reaction.

 

Do us a favour when you can please MITO. Can we have table of the final votes for each night (possibly on front page so everyone can view them easily)?

 

I am changing my vote to Billy.

Fully expect IBWT and Gerrez to now jump to his defence.
Now I've said that, they either now won't defend him, which scuppers their plan.
OR try defending him anyway with a couple of emotes towards me etc.

 

Unless he knew it was innocent vs innocent so changing is vote (not to RHC I might add) presents himself as innocent too. If he knew both were innocent, changing to RHC (proved to be innocent) would have put more attention on him than what he actually did because he would have clearly lynched a innocent man!

Edit: or you are lying

 

I second this

 

So basically you're in it with AFC then, nice one Bod Minxy is the other one isn't she

 

Interested to know why you think I would defend him? As far as I am aware, I've had no links with Billy at all

 

If I was mafia and they were both innocent I'd have no reason to change my vote in the first place...

 

But changing your vote makes it look like you were trying to save a innocent and planting a seed for later in the game

 

Now the insight I had which you guys dont is that I am the only one who knows for sure that I am innocent.
To the rest of you, afc's actions could possibly be him protecting another mafia member (ie me).
But since I am 100% thats not the case, as I know I am innocent, then I have to conclude it was just a noob mistake voting last minute and that he thought (as I did, I'll admit) that RHC was guilty.

I can't blame anyone else for not reaching this conclusion, since only I know for sure I am innocent, to the rest of the townies its all conjecture.

 

It put me right in the firing line, it would seem like a very risky move if I was mafia. I'd like to think I'd be a bit sneakier than that

Anyway I thought you were saying you thought I was innocent a minute ago?!

 

The simple probability of danilo being don in first and second games is 1/10 * 1/15 = 0.7%

However that is not the correct question. danilo being don in the first game is already a given, so the proper question is what is the probability that the person who was don in the first game is don again in the second, which is 1/15 = 7% since the two games are independent events and do not influence each other.

edit: MITO already posted that the events are independent

 

Your link isn't with Billy, its with IBWT, who I have suspected since RHC went down.
I am more and more sure he is mafia by the minute.
My voting for Billy is to test reactions.....

 

Why as no one bar Magic, Sky and myself claimed to be one of the four townie roles. If we're all telling the truth (we know Magic was and I know I am) then there is only one cop remaining to be revealed? That said, why hasn't one of the Mafia (assuming Sky is telling the truth) claimed to be one in one of these positions?

If Sky is lying then where our our two coppers?

 

I never said you were innocent or not

 

So whats my link to Biscan then?