OT: Mafia game thread starts Sunday 8pm 14/9/14

Why? What would they do?

 

They would jump on easy targets while everyone is voting for random people under the disguise of "**** it it's round 1 we just make **** up anyway"

That's why the best strategy is to realise that as an innocent you actually know **** all, and only ever vote for 1 person each, ignoring anyone who tries to make you gang up on someone since you know they know **** all either unless they are mafia

Round 1 gets messed up by innocents who think they are too clever and chase red herrings

 

'WE'


Hmmmmmmmm dodgy

 

You need to go through the logic on this. Set up a spreadsheet and list on a small scale (say 2 mafia and 4 town) all the permutations of random voting. You'll see Mafia will almost always win under a purely random vote.

 

So you believe they would sit back and let the Don be at risk?

As I've said, its not that I believe the system can't work. I think it could hence me going with it. However, its all about the reaction of the mafia with the Don at threat; albeit a small threat. For example, this game would have been a 14:1 (1 mafia but fourteen others) chance.

Say the system works and everyone gets one vote. And say a mafia (but not the Don) gets voted off. That makes it 11:3 but the Don can convert or kill, lets say convert making it 10:4. Have the mafia or townies lost out from the original numbers of 11:4? It simply doesn't work. Its about the reaction and reaction only!

 

Let's say you're betting on a dice; you have 1 in 6 CHANCE, not great

Let's say you get the INFORMATION that the dice never lands on number 6, so you choose any other number and have 1 in 5 CHANCE, still not great but better than your original situation

Having information is better than pure chance. But in round 1 only mafia have information, therefore innocents should opt for pure chance to make things more equal. The mafia already have their information and they definitely don't want pure chance.

 

No arguments with that but its not going to get any information for the following round so are you just going to keep repeating? If so, look at post #1205

 

The mafia almost always win round 1 anyway, the random chance just gives the innocents the best chance to win though

 

But as long as you leave everything to pure chance the Mafia will ALWAYS be the only ones with any information! And random "chance" will try and even out the #'s between Mafia and town (but Mafia already get nightly hits). (because if town have more people- town more likely to lose someone).

Once Mafia are 40% or more of the town- they can force a vote all voting together and town will never be cohesive enough to fight back even if most suspect what is going on.

 

No you do not repeat, it is only round 1

Round 2 innocents also start getting information from the cops, the system becomes far more complex and the simple mathematical model for round 1 breaks down

 

See my other post, it is only round 1

Round 2 the innocents get information about who is innocent/mafia from cops (it may be tainted information but at least the innocents now have a theoretical source of information and you can start making decisions about who to believe and what connections between groups of people there are)

 

Better... but still... you're missing out on other information you could be getting during day 1!!! You get information by putting pressure on people and seeing how they and others react. It's unusual for cops to come out early in the game. (not on here though... )


Also... more importantly... you're never going to get a large number of people to go along with the idea in the first place. People will think they see patterns, or protect themselves.

 

As has been proven many times, interpreting reactions is very difficult and innocent people are voted off all the time based on reactions

At least round 1 the innocents have the chance to use logic and so should take it IMO with the 1 vote each

 

I'd throw nozzer in with them as a possibility as well.

I'm currently voting for Bodanki, happy to vote for either of bod or milk and think we will see movement if it looks like one of them is going to die.

So that's 3 of 14 I'm highly suspicious of.

I'm happy to work on the assumption that skylarker is an investigator and hash is innocent. Astro has convinced me he isn't lying and I don't think minxy is mafia either. And I know im not.

So that's 5 out of 14 I'm feeling pretty sure of.

Gerrez I would put as mildly suspicious along with magic. And IBWT I'm unsure on.

The quieter left over guys could be anything.

 

But town 1 GET no logic or information if everyone just votes for one person. If you allow there to emerge two or three candidates you GET information.

 

Sky...if you have a role why would you announce it to the mafia (presuming you aren't mafia)? Surely that just puts a big fat target on your head...as they'll know your role isn't mafia

 

[table="width: 500, class: grid, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]Vote:[/td]
[td]no of votes[/td]
[td]By:[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Astro[/td]
[td]3[/td]
[td]nozzer, bodanki,ibwt[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]AFCFTW[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]hash [/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]magic[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]lucaas,milk,gerrez,astro[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]sky[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]magic[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]milk[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]danilo [/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]bodanki[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]afcftw[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

Not voted:, minxy, billy, sky


the current table as of 16:22 hours

 

You get crappy information, people don't want to leave the game so early and will start lashing out randomly to protect themselves, giving perfect cover for the mafia to jump on an easy victim and guarantee they are not at risk

If everyone does 1 vote each you know you have a 93% chance of survival which is great odds and better than getting fingered by some random pleb

 

Why Nozzer? What is your explanation on him?

 

Voting late looks a bit suspicious in my mind. Billy would be favourite of the three outstanding to be mafia (no concrete reason, just generally based on his posts), but as I said, there's no-one I'm particularly sure of beng innocent.

afcftw, why've you turned against me all of a sudden? I'm innocent!