OT: Mafia game thread starts Sunday 8pm 14/9/14

I voted Astro immediately after I saw his last minute vote! Figured he had to be mafia. I'll change if it lowers the suspicion of me and Bodanki being in cahoots! If he is mafia he bloody tricked me!

 

Why the **** would the mafia even let it get to the state of one of them being in a coinflip at the last minute?

There were enough changes all over the place for them to just quietly settle on someone innocent

That's why the best strategy round 1 is to not talk bollocks and throw around pointless accusations, have 1 per person and then let chance kill them off

 

Exactly. The only sense that approach makes is if you're looking for a reaction.

 

Not sure what losing weight's got to do with this, but at least we didn't pick Gerrez for the dieting!

 

No it's not because the more people involved in the coinflip the less control the mafia have. For 1 vote per person the mafia have zero control over themselves being involved (unless they reveal themselves), that is why it is the best round 1 strategy - it nullifies their advantage of knowing who is who.

1 person voted for is about 0% chance of mafia because it's so easy for the mafia to make sure that 1 person is not one of them when people throw around so many necessarily ignorant accusations and then change so often.

 

The Mafia might pick Gerrez to diet just because they're into cruel punishments.

 

.

 

Because they're newbies?

Because they're not very good at the game?

 

You've answered what everyone else is asking you there!

Why would they sit there and do nothing? Or, in other words, doing it to see a reaction

 

Great, but that doesn't explain your tactic at 8 p.m.

 

What if the mafia is a conspiracy? And doesn't really exist and this is the government pressuring us in to genocide. Sisu, shed some light?

 

I'd like to hear more from lucasssss, skylarker and minxy in this round... They are not getting nearly enough attention...

 

Except I posted it at 4:23pm

 

Completely random eliminations help the Mafia though.


They theoretically go from
4 / 15 (26.7% of town) to
5/ 14 (37.5% of town) in day one. 73% of the time. (assuming conversion happens night one)

Then in day 2 following same tactic they go to
5/12 (42% of town) after an assassination and lynching of innocent. 58% of the time.


So in just two rounds- purely picking people at random more often than not Mafia would have good odds of already having 42% of town after two nights- and no one will have anything to go on entering day 3 because everything has been random... with 42% of town Mafia could team up.

Just need to team up once in round 3- and get another target killed at night and blammo (one lynch which should be easy with 42% of the vote, and one assassination) and won in 3 days because first two days were purely random and town learns nothing (unless Cop hits gold).



Purely random works in Mafia's favour because then town has nothing to go on.

 

So you think that even though there were so many people changing their votes that MITO was practically in tears from keeping up, at no point earlier in the day did it occur to the mafia to try to shift votes onto an innocent?

 

What happned to my vote?

Minxy

 

No it doesn't.

In round 1 mafia have all the information, innocents have zero information. They have all the advantage to vote for an innocent or sit back when an innocent is voted for. Only by getting them involved in the coinflip can you guarantee they are at any risk.

If you actually have information (the mafia) the last thing you want is random chance ****ing things up for you. If you have no information (innocents) then random chance and getting lucky is your only hope.

 

Except that that doesn't explain it

Multiple people may make it more likely that it includes the mafia, but not that a mafia is chosen. Adding someone you think is innocent is hardly likely to increase the chances anyway. And saying the mafia have less control when there's more people makes no sense when you post at 8 pm and they have no time to do anything else anyway.

 

Why did you change your vote in the first round? Basically relieving the pressure on milk and voting for minxy randomly? And now voting the same way for another round in a row?

 

I thought this was still the first round - just got in from work.

Who got killed?

If this is round 2 then I cancel my vote for Minxy