Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Sunday 5th October, 2014

I'm beginning to like the look of Tapestry now

 

Well today has left me in no doubt.

Ectot is the one, was as big as 12s after the race, top price 8/1 now.

My advice, take it, take it now.

It took a while, but finally something stood up and said, im the Arc winner.

Tactical speed, acceleration, stamina, goes on any ground. Expected to come on for the run today and he even looked to find more when challenged late which is good to see.

Draw, ground and trip irrelevant, they wont live with him on the big day. Benoist also has the choice of Avenir Certain but I will absolutely amazed if he deserts this colt.

 

After Workforce I wont say Ruler Of The World cant win it but he doesnt have the gears in my opinion. He finished faster than Ectot today as a result of the slower early pace but he will be off his feet going nowhere in the Arc.

Ectot went from last to first on the bridle off a stronger pace, he made them look like claimers with that move, Teletext was 3rd in the Grand Prix and Adelaide has won a Group 1 in America so Ectot must be a pretty high class horse to do that to them.

The winning distance isnt impressive and on paper it wont look exceptional but he seemed to idle and has won a lot of his races in this manner, maybe he was getting tired but that could be more to do with fitness than the trip. Hes only been beaten once, first time out against a future Guineas winner.

Its a wide open year but that move today was the first time I really thought Arc about anything. If Benoist picks Avenir Certain over him that could be a hell of a statement.

 

I was really looking forward to going to the Arc this year but my enthusiasm has subsided. Guess I'll watch on TV again.

 

Look on the bright side, you won;t have to spend a ton.

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I am not sure how you come to the conclusion that the draw is irrelevant. If the plan is to hold him up and come late, being drawn in the next parish would mean using up some of his horse early to get a better position.

I think that Grégory Benoist might have the decision about which to ride taken out of his hands. The owner could decide to put Frankie on Ectot if O’Brien wants his son to ride Ruler Of The World.

For me, otherwise, there would be no choice to make. Although Avenir Certain is a classic winner, there is a big question mark about whether she will stay as the Diane is ten furlongs and they ruled out finding out in the Prix Vermeille.

See what I wrote about the admission prices on my ‘Paris Blog’. Sitting in front of the box is the cheap option with no risk of bad weather.

 

I saw that QM. Surprising that. Not even a half price admission for senior citizens that I can see. Sod that.

 

I came to the same conclusion about Treve last year. Some horses need the draw in the Arc to have any chance, Ectot is not one of them, you can put him anywhere in a race and he has the gear change to get out of trouble. That is the main thing I look for in a Arc horse, one who is not dependant on circumstances.

Ive went through the history of the race and the draw is irrelevant, look for yourself. The race is won by the real class animals, if your a good Arc winner you didnt need the draw, if you are beaten by the draw you are not worthy of winning an Arc.

 

I'm not as confident as you Joe that Ectot has the gears. Have a look at the sectionals in the Timeform Corner thread.

 

Had a look, what in particular about them should I be worried about?

 

The fact that a half fit Treve, running on unsuitable ground and not given a hard race, ran the last 600m in 1.8 secs faster time. If, as you believe, Treve has not trained on, then I doubt we saw the Arc winner on Sunday.

 

Treve was tailed off, the fact she clocked a fast finish confirms there is nothing physically wrong with her, its mentally where she has lost it, last year he would have been struggling to keep her from cruising to the front against that lot off that crawl.

Not sure how this is relevant to Ectot having gears? I posted earlier on this thread that Ruler Of The World was faster down the straight, didnt need the sectionals to know that, they were about two seconds slower to the turn in his race and even slower in Treves race.

Ectot beat the French Guineas winner over a mile earlier in the season, hands and heels. They went a good gallop in the Niel and at no point was he ever troubled by it, had they went as slow as they did in the other races he would have won by a good bit further in my opinion. They were flattered to get as close to him.

If you compare what Ectot did between the 3 and the 2 to what Adelaide did at the same time, im sure that will have more than negated the final furlong time when Adelaide ran on when the race was done. Ectot would have walked past him like he walked past the others even if Adelaide had daylight.

Id be worried if it was a similar scenario to Eagle Top earlier in the season, where he was seen to good effect coming from last off a strong gallop. The monumental difference there is that Eagle Top was off his feet before coming back on the bridle in the straight when the others started to tread water. Ectot was never troubled by the pace and inhaled them easily, thats gears, what Eagle Top doesnt have.

The finishing speed is relative to the pace the race is run at, Ectot still got the highest sectional rating overall, had they went as slow in the Niel id bet Ectot would have won with faster finishing speed than seen in the other races, his proven ability to beat decent milers at a mile suggests as much. Distance, pace, ground and position dont seem to effect him, he has everything you need in an Arc horse.

Hes a fair specimen and you would imagine he will come on plenty for that, if they go a slow pace in the Arc he will annihilate them, if they go fast, hes still going to cruise to the front and there doesnt appear to be anything whos going to run him down.

Taghrooda could be the one for the forecast IF she gets a nice trip.

Just A Way is the one with the class to challenge, but massive stamina doubt and kind of a catch 22 situation, hes best off a strong pace but might have more chance if they go slow.

 

You put up a good argument Joe; as you did last year. Just looked at Ectot's pedigree. I see he has Mill Reef and Ribot behind him on the dam side and sired by an Arc and KG winner. Interesting that he beat a Gns winner (Karakontie) over 8f. I could be wrong but I seem to recall that you didn't rate Karakontie; or was that someone else? Even so, bred as he is, it's interesting he has been kept away from 12f until his last run. I wouldn't get too excited about beating Teletext and a line through Adelaide makes Ectot and Eagle Top in the same league I would have thought. Although Eagle top doesn't look so stoutly bred and got thrashed by Taghrooda. If it's a sound surface on Arc day and Australia turns up how do you think he would fare against Ectot?

 

I dont think Karakontie is anything special, he was a good 2yo and he won the French Guineas, a decent miler, thats it, you must be thinking of someone else as ive never knocked the horse, I backed him on Arc day last year.

He hasnt been kept away from 12f by design, he has been injured. He was due to run in the French Classics and even got an entry for our Derby but missed them all. You would imagine that had he run in the Guineas he would have beaten Karakontie again considering the comfy beating he gave him in the trial, and after seeing him on Sunday at 80% I think he would have certainly given TGG something to think about in the French Derby. What price would he be just now if he had won the French Guineas and French Derby considering what TGG has went on to do? I think he starts strong favourite, in France at least.

Australia doesnt look up to it after Sunday, hes a good horse but was never an Arc type, Kingman will thrash him at a mile now so they best go for the Champion Stakes then sneak out the back door.

Elie Lellouche "He's cool, confident. He has the charisma of a champion. He reminds me of HELISSIO"

Thats good enough for me.

 

Just had a look at Treve's run in the Prix Vermeille. I'm not too sure what to think of the run. She looked to be travelling ok but when called on she seemed to hit a flat spot. All sorts of reasons are being offered for her lack of "zip" this time in. For one reason or another, that "ping" she showed last season is just not there. I'm not so sure that she hasn't trained on though. I think there is a solid chance that the answer as to why Treve's form is not as we'd all like it to be, can be found in her maturation. Personally, I don't believe the filly is shirking the issue, it's more that as she's a year older and year more developed. She just can't be what she used to be when more of a girl. If I'm right, then circumstances have changed for her. She won't be able to get the job done in this year's Arc if the track conditions mirror the 2013 race. And she won't be able to sweep between runners with an electric burst. She'll probably need the pace on in earnest, and a track surface to suit a more grinding finish. Her connections still have a bit of time up their sleeve to tinker with her, to maybe sharpen her up a little. I'm hoping like crazy that she can get the job done and prove herself to be one of the best fillies we've seen in a while. She's going to need to add another dimension to her repertoire though...that of versatility.

 

It is very easy to take sectional times out of context and ignore what actually happened.

The time of the total race in the Prix Vermeille was 2:28.22, nearly two seconds slower than the Prix Niel and more than a second slower than the Prix Foy. It was run much more typically like a French race than the Group 2 events.

In the Prix Niel, Ectot was held up and came with a late turn of foot to hit the front but he was not ridden out to win going away; more like he was eased up or idled, hence the closer proximity of Teletext than was probably merited. The race was set up for Ectot by his pacemaking stablemate Serans, whose services he almost certainly will not have in October.

In the Prix Vermeille, Treve was in the mid division and when she came with her run it was sustained and despite the fact that she was not going to win, Thierry Jarnet did not drop his hands.

If you find a video of the Prix de Fontainbleau, Ectot toyed with Karakontie. Had he stayed fit I think he would have done the same in the Poulains and would definitely have given The Grey Gatsby more of a race in the Jockey Club than poorly ridden Prince Gibraltar did.

 

I think the Arc is between two horses- Ectot and Harp Star.

Harp Star won with a touch to spare from Gold Ship (a very talented Japanese runner) and almost made up the best part of 15L in the Japanese Oaks when a fast finishing 2nd. Deep Impact out of a Falbrav mare- the stamins is there, the speed is there. I think this might be the one for Japan after all these years of trying.

 

Who will Soumillion ride now sea the moon has been retired