The right two are at the front of the betting now. Gallante would be interesting at 25s if its soft but he probably needs the draw and a good trip. I dont expect Australia to run and I dont expect Just A Way to stay. Avenir Certain doesnt look a Zarkava or Treve to me but she has half a chance if she stays. Still not convinced about Sea The Moon, looked too good to be true in the German Derby but its getting harder and harder to knock the form and Sea The Stars has had an amazing start as a sire. Id be all over Treve again to be honest, I still believe she is the best filly since Zarkava but I just dont think she looks the same horse this year. The one French 3yo who has threatened to look something this year is Prince Gibraltar 33/1, he seems to have an engine and he is crying out for a serious gallop that he should get in the Arc. He was the best horse in the French Derby for my money, they didnt go fast enough for him early in the Grand Prix and you can throw out the last run where he walked out the stalls and never had a chance out the back with Western Hymn in a false race. The real class normally comes to the fore in the Arc and he should be best of the French 3yos, whether hes good enough to beat Sea The Moon or the real Treve I dont know but at 33s he looks the value to me at this stage.
So many variables but I like Chiquita in there. Sea the moon is a talented horse but what's he actually beating ? I like anvier certain chances but the value has to be just a way if the horse stays will be hard to beat
Just back from a planned 5 night trip which turned out to be a 24 night trip to Koln!!! Noticed that all the fancy Betfair prices about Ectot have gone. Has anyone heard about a return; possibly in the Prix Niel?
Its just that I noticed that Ectot has been entered in the Champion Stakes so did not want to waste money on a possible non-runner. However at 50/1 even £20 e/w would still be worth it if Ectot ran well in Niel. Also Stan James are one the few bookies offering 1/4 each way.
Don't think she is entered so may run in the 'Opera' then the BC F+M Turf. AOB likes the BC meeting. Could also run in the fillies race on Champio's Day.
Tapestry is not currently entered for the Arc, but what is 120,000 Euros (I think that is the supplemental fee on 2 October) to Coolmore? She is entered in the Prix de l’Opéra, as is Avenir Certain, so who knows which will actually show up for the ten furlong race instead?
Can't believe Australia might miss this. I was at York and he won with all sorts in hand and actually was lengthening at the line. Everything about him says he will stay a mile and a half. Pedigree screams it, he is so incredibly relaxed, can go off a slow pace or off a fast one. I think they are afraid because he didn't pull away from Kingston Hill in the Derby but they made a really early move with Australia that day and French racing will suit him, as a turn of foot is almost a necessity at Longchamp. They seem obsessed with 10f but does he honestly need both Champion stakes? Mop up the Irish one and then go to Longchamp for goodness sake. You think of all all the horses they have sent there over the years yet their supposed best probably won't go. It's a big problem with the sport is this. ****ing breeding. Cost-cap the stallion duties and we will see some real racing.
I thought he would be suited by 12f, for the very reasons you mention Toppy. But JOB was so adamant that his best distance is "mile, mile and a quarter" that it convinced me he won't be seen in the Arc. AOB seemed to agree, because "he has so much speed". Maybe they are planning an Arc victory in 2015, if he isn't whipped off to stud.
Stated lots of times and once again that Australia has a slim to no chance of turning up any ground worse than good he won't race
It did not take long for the bookmakers to react to Sea The Moon’s disappointing effort at Baden Baden. He went straight out to 10/1 in one place whilst a number of the layers on OddsChecker have suspended their betting. The winner Ivanhowe is available at 16/1 for the Arc for those that are interested. This means that Treve has inherited favouritism despite not having run for months. Next Sunday is starting to look much more interesting...
The Derby form doesnt look up to winning the Arc and he has never really looked like an Arc horse. 1m2 is his trip, QEII or BC Classic would be the brave ones to go for. Maybe if it was fast ground take a chance at the Arc but Ladbrokes top price looks ominous. Anyone get the 7s Treve? Could end up looking the bet of all time. I was sure she would win it again before a ball was kicked this season, but will need to see something different in the Vermille to convince me I am looking at the same horse, the ground/injury excuses, I am not fully wearing.
Pricewise has this morn tipped up Ectot for the race – 1 pt win at 50’s. Bit of movement in the horses odds as a result. Now a best priced 25/1 and as low as 20’s in places. On the subject of Dettori’s jocking off I really do find it somewhat staggering that all the onus re this decision has been placed on the trainer. Mrs Head-Maarek may well have recommended it but that’s, the most, and all she can ever do when an owner has a retained jockey. At the end of the day in instances such as this the trainer is no more than the hired hand and the actual final decision would have been made by the owner and no one else. He and his management seem to have totally passed the buck and in all statements made so far have put the decision firmly at the hand of the trainer.
At the time of writing, before the St Leger, the Irish Champion Stakes and Sunday’s Arc Trials, the betting according to OddsChecker looks like this: 7/2 Treve 7/1 Sea The Moon, Taghrooda 8/1 Australia, Avenir Certain, Just A Way 10/1 Harp Star 14/1 Ivanhowe, Tapestry 16/1 Epiphaneia 20/1 Gold Ship, Kingston Hill There is a remarkable shortage of French horses in that betting and I think that by Sunday night 25/1 Ectot, 25/1 Gallante, 33/1 Spiritjim, 33/1 Dolniya, 33/1 Teletext, 40/1 Ruler Of The World or 66/1 Romsdal could be distant memories or no longer in the betting.
Sea the Moon ruled out due to injury. By default this race is now starting to look like Treve's race to lose...
Had not seen this injury news. Obviously neither had the bookies. That is really bad luck for his connections as, despite defeat last time, he was still a live contender. I have to say that I can see Treve getting turned over in the Prix Vermeille. The ground will be on the soft side of good because of the watering policy but if it is near enough good that Toronado is running in the Moulin, she is vulnerable after a long layoff.
