With the transfer merry-go-round about to start I thought I’d have a stab at evaluating the fortunes of the 24 clubs battling it out for this years spoils. I’ve done this off the top of my head without much ‘research’ so there may be the clang of a testicle hitting the floor with some of my points being horribly inaccurate, which will surely be highlighted by you guys. Anyway, my views on the fortunes of the teams in the season to come. May the debating begin. Last years relegated teams didn’t find the going that easy with all three finishing in mid table. Financial issues seemed to be at the root of their problems. Conversely, the promoted teams did very well with Norwich gaining back to back promotions and Milwall in 9th the lowest placed of the promoted teams, two places above Hull who were the best of the relegated teams. There are a large number of championship clubs with new managers for the coming seasons, and their ability to settle quickly will have a big influence on the shape of the table come May. Only one team stands out for promotion for me with many likely candidates to join them. 6 or 7 teams likely to slug it out to avoid relegation with the usual ‘squeeze’ in the top third. Another very competitive season to come. My analysis by team: Barnsley – no big news from here and being safe is likely to be the best they could hope for. Bottom third. Birmingham – a fire sale on the way which coupled with a new manager is likely to see Brum off to a slow start. How quickly they can rebuild will determine their final position. Similar to last season’s relegated teams in this regard, but likely to fare slightly better. Top third. Blackpool – with news of a few sweeteners in the shape of a couple of loanees from Liverpool to seal a deal for Adam, the seasiders could do well. Didn’t spend big last season, with no big wages to support so there should be no financial problems. Their promotion saw them ‘get lucky’ on the last day of the regular season and it could be seen as a flash in the pan. Were well received in the premier league. Don’t underestimate the ‘Oli factor’….. An automatic spot unlikely, but another shot at the playoffs likley? Brighton – could be another Norwich. Poyet has them playing a good style with a solid team and no stars. Some astute additions will give them a squad to compete at this level. Solid top third finish, with a chance of the playoffs. Bristol City – carrot munching optimism as usual. If they lose Maynard they may struggle for goals. Low key signings and rumours though allegedly competing with us for a left back. Yet to reach the highs of their first season back at this level. Likely to be mid table. Burnley – interests in key players could put a dent in their squad. Didn’t spend big when they were promoted so living within their means. Appeared to underachieve last year so should will be hoping for the playoffs as a minimum. Top third. Cardiff – obviously a bias from me on this one. A new manager and major re-building of the squad required. A change in game plan and personnel will see a slow start. A number of positive indications for moves in the market. Will finish top third but the playoffs may be a step too far this season. Coventry – One of the ‘steady eadies’ of the division. Unlikely to set the division alight but should be safe. Bottom third. Crystal Palace – financial problems remain with little sign of them abating. Won’t play big in the transfer market and are likely to struggle after a near miss last season. Bottom third. Derby – with the loss of their antagonist (verbally anyway), Mr Savage some of the energy in mid-field will be lost. Some key signings are needed to push them up the league but they will be safe. Mid table. Doncaster – quietly go about their business and could be said to overachieve. Appear happy to be in this league and have survived a few seasons where ‘bigger clubs’ have been relegated. Likely to be another tough season. Bottom third. Hull – financial problems remain. Unless they can shed their high earners (including, our loanee of last season) they will struggle to improve the squad. A watershed season for Hull with a mid table finish likely. Ipswich – look to have lost Wickham which is why Chops headed east over the hill. Flattered to deceive last season and Norwich’s promotion will have stung. If they invest the significant fee for Wickham wisely could become competitive. Top third. Leeds – A few of the crowd pleasers have already left with rumours of others to go. A few uninspiring early transfers and with Papa Smurf at the helm, unlikely to make significant strides. Their ‘right to be in the premiership’ will irk for another season with a mid table finish likely. Leicester – the Man City of the Championship, or will it go the way of Notts County. Some big name signings (for the championship anyway) already with no signs of it abating. Sven isn’t proven in the lower leagues (except at international level) so it could go either way. Will be in the top third with the possibility of a top two finish if things come together with the squad being built. Middlesbrough – Another difficult season ahead. Don’t seem to have the problems of Hull and Portsmouth but neither do they seem to be that attractive to players. Mowbray isn’t the most inspiring of managers but has been there before. Top third. Milwall – A good first season in the championship and a good squad ethic. Jackett has renewed his contract and is unlikely to lose many of his squad. How he can add to it will be key. A mid table finish likely with a top third possible. Forrest – getting promoted (FACT) as a result of all the key players signed (well DONE DEALs anyway). Another club facing a watershed season. Have competed at the top end of the division for a couple of seasons and a top 6 finish a possibility though may find the going tough. Peterborough – Will need to replace Mackail-Smith quickly and much will depend on the generosity of Fergusson senior. Could find the going tough with a bottom third finish likely and safety a result. Portsmouth – similar to Hull in their need to offload high earners. Need to create an identity and rebuild. Another mid table finish in my eyes. Reading – always competitive in the division. They need to hang on to McAnuff and Long to show a statement of intent. Holding on to their key players will see a top 6 finish with a top third finish almost guaranteed. Southampton – Have quietly gone about their business and have a number of influential individuals in a good team structure. Will compete with anyone on their day but in this competitive division, the depth of their squad will be tested without further additions. Will be safe with a mid table finish likely. Watford – With the loss of their main man up front and with MM heading west, this will be a tough season for the Hornets. No sign of investment to strengthen the squad so bargain basement signings are likely to be Dyche’s fayre. Bottom third and could be worse! West Ham. – will be the team to beat. A few stars will leave but the Hammers should be too good for this division, similar to Newcastle the season before last. How they deal with games such as a windy Tueday at Turf Moor will define their season. Top 6 guaranteed with top 2 probable.
Leicester, West Ham, Brum, Forest, Reading, are going to be thereabouts IMO we are an unknown quantity, as are Leeds...........there is always a "Dark Horse" that comes up on the rails Southampton or Boro wouldn't be a huge suprise.................but Brighton could be the suprise package IMO
Considering you did no research ,a very interesting perspective on teams in the NPL. I personally think all the relegated teams will be a force this season and expect them to fill 3 of the top 6 places. Reading ,leicester,forest and leeds will also be thereabouts. Think you got it right about my lot(Southampton) mid table,but most of us would be well satisfied with that.
hi saint...never say never mate...just look at Norwich....plus you've got the added bonus of your personal bragging rights dual with Pompski
Bristol City fan here! Birmingham, Cardiff, Ipswich, Leeds, Leicester, Forrest, Reading, West Ham all to push for play offs this year IMO. Blackpool, Brighton, Burnley, Hull, Middlesbrough, Portsmouth, Southampton all to finish comfortably safe of the drop zone. Barnsley, Coventry, Crystal Palace, Doncaster, Milwall, Peterborough, Watford all in for a nasty season I think. Donny there if, as rumoured, they sell Sharpe. Millwall if they don't replaced Morrison adequetly. Posh may well do fine but think they'll be in for a tough time if CMS goes to leicester. Saying that I probably have it all wrong but hey ho, the league looks like it'll be ridiculously tight next year. Possible dark horse contenders.. Saints and Brighton, depends on how they start the season. With regards to ourselves, I think we'll be in and around the play offs if Maynard stays. If he goes then mid-table for us this year I think. To be fair, he was out for most of the season and scoring goals was the only thing we were good at. Pitman and Stead are both very good at this level. However, we need three new defenders IMO to have a real go at it this year. On the plus side, at least Chopra is no longer playing for you guys! He really doesn't like us..
Listed in alphabetical order Top 8 - Birmingham, Blackpool, Ipswich, Leicester, Middlesbrough, Notts Forest, Reading, West Ham Middle 8 - Brighton, Burnley, Cardiff, Hull City, Leeds, Millwall, Portsmouth, Southampton Bottom 8 - Barnsley, Bristol City, Coventry, Crystal Palace, Derby, Doncaster, Peterborough, Watford Possible surprise packages: Brighton, Cardiff, Doncaster, Hull, Portsmouth. Possible flops: Blackpool, Leeds, Leicester
Few teams in with a shout for Auto's, play offs etc. Auto's- West Ham. Birmingham, Middlesbrough, Leicester Play offs- Florist, Blackpool, Hull, Weeds, Reading, Cardiff (hoping) portsmouth Relegated- Donny, Watford, Peterborough, Barnsley, Palace. Dark horses for top 6- Cardiff, Southhampton, Brighton, Ipswich, Millwall. Apoligies if I forgot some teams but thats what see based on how teams performed last season, and what the clubs are doing now to reform their respective team.
west ham, brum, boro, leicester....three out of the 4 to fill spots for promotion. relegation battle......bristol city, cardiff, brighton, blackpool dark horses that may go one way or the other ...reading,millwall saints and pompey...
Sickly...you should be predicting your own battle for relegation.....Well actually your dogfight for 20th place and trying to get that magical 11 points that Derby got. Oh...thats right you have predicted 50+ points for the Swans..yeah..well...good luck with that I tell you what i predict Cardiff will get at least twice the number of points in the Champ that Swansea get in the Prem...you want to take that on Sickly?
I want to see City in first or second and I don't give a toss about anybody else, the 23 or 22 below us can all be equal second or third on points, goal difference, goals scored, yellow and red cards, and the number of seat in the toilets for all I care. If city or in the play-offs then the same goes for all those below 6th. for me if MM doesn't at least keep us in the top 6 there was no point in changing the manager. Simples! KTF
Agree with your argument in principle, but I think we can finish the season in a better overall position even if we finish outside the top 6. The club is going in a new direction, which appears to involve cost cutting. One would question if DJ would have kept us in the top 6 with this new direction. MM has been entrusted with the task of building a competitive squad for the long term benefit. That may mean a lower table position this season for the greater gain in seasons to come.
siam, there it is again, people referring to the clubs financial intent, but where did you read that the club is engaged in a cost cutting exercise? I certainly haven't seen that written anywhere authoratitive any more than I have seen the so called 'budget' of 5 million 20 million or in between that you read in these posts being stated by the club management directly. MM Didn't come here to be in the same psoition as he was at Watford with no money. clearing out the top earning players was more about clearing the problem from the squad that saving money in my opinion, and their wages are now there to spend on perhaps 4 plays where before they paid 3. but that isn't cost cutting. It is one of those things that if you repeat a made-up figure or policy often enough it will become 'Fact" like all of Forests signings last season.
I agree Siam. This is a brave new world. we're entering xsnaggle, not sure DJ would have got us to 6th or better this year with the exodus of players. As key to getting some new players in is to replace the back room staff. MM may be able to cover the coaching over the next week or two, but the fitness regime needs to be put in place now.
With Brighton signing Mackail-Smith and Posh signing a couple of Daddy's youngsters it may be time to start reviewing expectations. With our signings to date I's say my estimation for us is still about par. Watching daily for further announcements.
Working on the basis that Sickly Swan is Dai then judgement and opinion totally flawed. No change there then. With 2 or 3 more positive signings, including a good target man there is no reason why we won't stay top 6.
Yes, I can appreciate that point of view and it really is the other course that may be being followed by the owners. This does not however suggest that DJ could have got in the top 6 again because the clear out might have only happened because DJ left as well. He may have been considered part of the problem. Therefore it is acceptable for MM to not finish as high as DJ did last year because we may assume we will finish higher with a new manager and different players, than if DJ had of stayed with the attitude of least season still in the dressing room. All hypothetical stuff of course.
Judging on ins and outs so far i would say: 1-6: West Ham, Leicester, Birmingham, Ipswich, Reading & Cardiff. 7-12: Hull, Leeds, Forest, Southampton, Middlesbrough & Burnley. 13-18: Coventry, Bristol, Brighton, Derby, Portsmouth & Millwall. 19-24: Doncaster, Watford, Peterborough, Barnsley, Blackpool, Crystal Palace.
Cardiff will be there, or there abouts. Sadly, unless they get auto's, they'll choke in the play-offs. That was not a WUM btw. If it were, I'd have you down as mid table. P.s. Siam - Ill take that prediction.
