What makes you so sure that it'll be eu membership and pound sterling? Given that all the current uk parties have said they wouldn't allow a currency union and several eu countries have it in there best interest to not make it a smooth ride for Scotland.
There is a whole host of reasons in this thread if you look back. The currency union is in the best political interests of the rUK otherwise there will probably be a run on the pound and rUK mortgages will rise by 2.5%.If despite that they choose not to have a union then Scotland will just use the pound without it. As regards the EU again it looks far easier to keep Scotland in than out. These are just political ploys to cause worry. The currency really is a non issue for Scotland because whatever it does it is assured of strong currency by virtue of its balance of trade surplus and strong financial position.
Wall St is concerned saying that the economies of both countries will weaken dramatically if the split happens. If Wall St takes notice then others must sit up.
In the last few days the man who has just stepped down from the position of European Commisioner for monetary affairs and the euro has said Scotland could not have a currency union with the rest of the uk and still join the eu as it breaches criteria of eu member states. The fact that salmond responded by saying he thinks common sense will triumph doesn't miraculously change the fact that under current rules Scotland can't have it both ways. That's just one of a whole host of issues Scotland faces with the eu if it gets independence. But the YES campaign seem to sweep all the problems under the rug and assume blind optimism will be the answer.
It doesn't at all, it just says every problem has a solution and long term it will all work out better for Scotland.
It's not blind optimism, i've done my research on this. With regards to the currency issue that the better together gang keep going on about, if Scotland votes yes then i'm 99% sure a currency union would be agreed to ensure economic stability on both sides of the border. Obviously we won't know anything for certain
Given that the man who has just stepped down from his role as the European Commissioner for monetary Issues and the Euro has said a currency union and eu membership could not both happen with current eu rules, how exactly are you going to have a currency union and join the eu? So even assuming all of the current uk parties go back on there word and allow a currency union, it then creates further barriers for Scotland to get eu membership.
I thought he said an independent Scotland would need formal permission from the UK to use to £ if it wants to keep the pound and join the EU. Indeed it's an issue but not one that can be overcome and imo it's been highly overused by the NO side as a scare tactic.
In his comments a couple of days ago he made it sound very much like both could not be done as having a currency with a central bank in a different country doesn't allow Scotland to meet the eu's financial criteria. It didn't sound like a "there are ways to work this out" it sounded like a "they can't have both".
This is the opinion of one man and there are many in Europe who disagree. This is an unprecendented situation for which there are no rules. The aim will be to smooth the passage for Scotland because to do otherwise will result in chaos for Europe. It will not want to expell 5.5 million members or cause major problems for 160,000 EU citizens working in Scotland, 60,000 students studying in Scotland. Not to mention fishing rights and 25% of Europes renewable energy. Not forgetting Scots working in the EU, not sure of their numbers. This, as KingHotspur says, is a scare tactic from NO, who knows why this guy is batting for them it's just politics. The reality of the situation will smooth the way otherwise it will cause major problems throughout Europe. Just think the situation through, nothing else makes any sense.
Then we will have a central bank, personally I would prefer this. The truth is it poses far more problems for rUK than it does for Scotland.
I Think if we sound off hand about the currency and EU questions it's because we have answered this over and over and over again. It seem the NO campaign have very little ammunition so they just keep asking the same questions and deliberatley ignore the answers. It is time they realised that it is not working as they lose more and more support. You will think this biased but in my experience NO people are angry aggressive and frightened. They try to suppress debate rather than encourage it. YES meetings are open to everybody and people with doubts are actively encouraged to come and ask their questions. No meetings on the other hand are excluding with email addresses checked before you are allowed in and if they think you are on the YES side they wont let you in. No campaigning is stage managed with no grass roots support apart from the The Orange Lodge. They just try to create fear and uncertainty and have NO positive message. I am not sure we are going to win but each day brings a YES vote closer and closer to a majority.
I admire your passion Spurf and agree that societal inequality is out of control here. But do you really think that the political elite (of which Salmond and practically every other politician in the UK is a member,) will make Scotland a more egalitarian place? Labour trot this out every election, but during their last term, inequality moved faster than ever before. Don't get me wrong, I think it's a problem that needs solving, but the days of hairy arsed ship builders, steelworkers and miners representing the masses are way behind us. We now have a system where party workers recruited from university are parachuted into safe seats, never actually having been involved in what the majority of us would call real work. Trade Unionists or Passionate hard working local councillors are seen as "not quite right" and are left to toe the party line at local level. A professional political class governs us now; One whose raison d'etre is not change, or equality or improving the lot of "working families" it is re-election and the maintainence of power and the status quo. These people come from the same schools and universities and live in the same sheltered middle/upper class enclaves with no earthly idea what's going on for the majority of us. Salmond may have an issue right now that he thinks will buy him the top job in a new Scotland, but once he's in, it will be business as usual and the only difference for ordinary Scots will be the flag that flies over Edinburgh Castle. The rich get richer and the poor stay that way. By the way the US has a constitution.Its no guarantee of equality either.
The quickest and easiest way to get rid of Salmond and the SNP for Scotland is to go independent though.
Chirpy I can understand why you think that, it's hard for any of us to trust politicians when we have seen how they operate. The difference here is that we are talking about Scotland which is a very different society from England. The Labour party has been the choice up here but following the 'betrayal' by Blair the Scots saw the way the cookie crumbled and ousted the Labour Party by voting in an SNP government and hence triggered this referrendum. The biggest problem in my view is The Labour Party. It was founded in Lanark for the purpose of Independence for Scotland but has forgotton about that as this current shower campaign for their lucrative jobs in Westminster. They have moved to the right and are now IMO right of the Edward Heath government. All the parties follow a neo-liberal agenda as if there is no alternative. There is no choice in Westminster. The Tories do at least have integrity and it is quite clear where and for who they stand. In Scotland if YES wins they will not stand for a mini- Westminster. Millions of people have been politicised up here they are working very hard on the ground for their dream and they are not about to sit down after Sept 18th and leave it to politicians. This is a major change the like of which we have not seen in Britain in our lifetimes. This is a real chance to create a modern democracy and it will be done by the people not the politicians.
"Then we will have a central bank, personally I would prefer this. The truth is it poses far more problems for rUK than it does for Scotland." No, it doesn't. Sterling will devalue a bit as a result of the separation, but will still remain a strong and trusted currency. A Scotch pound OTOH is no such thing, and will not be given parity with Sterling by the markets. Some very basic macro-economics shows that if Scotland adopts the Euro, and the GBP:Euro rate drops to 1 : 1.15, Scotlands' balance of payments wrt UKminus immediately increases by 2 billion quid.
I hope you're right Spurf. I'm no class warrior myself,but it seems to me that part of the reason that the political elite are not dislodged is that the educational opportunities, although presented as a level playing field, are anything but. For the most part, "good" schools (generally in "good" areas where housing is expensive) feed "good" universities which in turn feed into the best jobs and positions of power. These people then get married and move to "good" areas or gentrify others and the cycle begins again. I have worked in graduate and non graduate recruitment for pretty big companies and believe me, the education system is failing all but those who are already above the glass ceiling. A few really exceptional people get through, but really not enough to affect any sort of change. Social mobility is almost non existent. I can't imagine its any different in Scotland, but I'll bow to your superior knowledge if that's the case. Government by the people is a nice idea. But, it takes hard work to run a city, or a county, or a country and most are just not up for it, although they like the idea of it. It will always be a tiny, educated, politicised minority that make decisions. Conviction politics being a thing of the past, you may not have a mini Westminster, but it won't be far off it before very long. Right now there is something to be passionate about and initially too, if the Yeses prevail, but when the dust settles I imagine the everyday business of government to be little different. Another thing to consider is that if you are a member of the EU you will be part of a system that is the antithesis of people power. Basically, an unelected bureaucracy representing nobody but themselves and doing everything they can to maintain the status quo. A little like the Labour party, but they don't even have to win elections.
