If only Ollson hadn't got a red card

I'm convinced we would have drawn with Wolves. In which case we would be top of the league today.

 

And using the same logic, if RvW had taken that early season penalty instead of Snodgrass, we'd be competing in Europe this season.

 

I think thats a bit more of a leap than I would make, but I guess my thought was the difference between us potentially being top of the league & where we are now (which I'm happy with) is argueably down to a red card, something which Adams or indeed any other manager had no influence over. Having said that of course if Adams had made some different decisions we could have won the game, as I think our overall performance was poor.

 

Is it better to hit the front early or to reach the top of the table in the final run in?

 

Both

 

There's a relatively easy way to come up with a statistical analysis (STAT ALERT - LOOK AWAY NOW IF YOU HATE THEM!!!!).


Top six on 20 August 2013:
1 Nottingham Forest 3 3 0 0 5 0 2 0 0 4 0 1 0 0 1 0 +5 9
2 Watford 3 2 1 0 10 4 1 0 0 6 1 1 1 0 4 3 +6 7
3 Blackpool 3 2 1 0 5 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 4 2 +3 7
3 Burnley 3 2 1 0 5 2 1 1 0 3 1 1 0 0 2 1 +3 7
5 Queens Park Rangers 3 2 1 0 4 2 2 0 0 3 1 0 1 0 1 1 +2 7
6 Leicester City 3 2 1 0 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 3 1 +2 7

(Leicester, QPR, Burnley all finished top 6. Blackpool finished in the bottom half)

Top 6 after 3 games in 2012
1 Blackpool 3 3 0 0 10 1 2 0 0 8 1 1 0 0 2 0 +9 9
2 Sheffield Wednesday 3 2 1 0 8 6 2 0 0 6 4 0 1 0 2 2 +2 7
3 Blackburn Rovers 3 2 1 0 4 2 2 0 0 3 1 0 1 0 1 1 +2 7
4 Bristol City 3 2 0 1 8 4 2 0 0 8 3 0 0 1 0 1 +4 6
5 Watford 3 2 0 1 5 3 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 3 2 +2 6
6 Middlesbrough 3 2 0 1 5 4 2 0 0 5 3 0 0 1 0 1 +1 6

(Watford finished top 6. ALL FIVE(!) other teams in the bottom half. Bristol City relegated)

Top 6 after 3 games in 2011
1 Southampton 3 3 0 0 9 3 1 0 0 3 1 2 0 0 6 2 +6 9
2 Brighton and Hove A 3 3 0 0 6 2 1 0 0 2 1 2 0 0 4 1 +4 9
3 Derby County 3 3 0 0 4 1 1 0 0 2 1 2 0 0 2 0 +3 9
4 Middlesbrough 3 2 1 0 6 3 0 1 0 2 2 2 0 0 4 1 +3 7
5 West Ham United 3 2 0 1 5 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 5 0 +4 6
6 Crystal Palace 3 2 0 1 5 3 2 0 0 4 1 0 0 1 1 2 +2 6

(Southampton, West Ham finished top 6. Crystal Palace finished in the bottom half)

Top 7 (to include us) after 3 games in 2010
1 Queens Park Rangers 3 3 0 0 9 0 2 0 0 6 0 1 0 0 3 0 +9 9
2 Cardiff City 3 2 1 0 7 2 1 1 0 5 1 1 0 0 2 1 +5 7
3 Burnley 3 2 1 0 5 1 2 0 0 4 0 0 1 0 1 1 +4 7
4 Coventry City 3 2 1 0 6 3 2 0 0 4 1 0 1 0 2 2 +3 7
4 Ipswich Town 3 2 1 0 6 3 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 5 2 +3 7
6 Millwall 3 2 0 1 8 3 1 0 0 4 0 1 0 1 4 3 +5 6
7 Norwich City 3 2 0 1 5 3 1 0 1 4 3 1 0 0 1 0 +2 6

(Cardiff, QPR finished top 6 (and us). Coventry finished in the bottom half)


So basically if you're top 6 after three games (if we can exclude the 2012-13 season as a freak anomaly), your chances of finishing top 6 have gone from 1/4 to 1/3-1/2, which is a surprisingly significant improvement. Oddly, aside from Watford, all those who were in the top 6 at this time and stayed in the top 6 by the end of the season also got promoted (so on this limited sample chances of promotion have gone from 1/8 to 1/3 too). I might go back a bit further to see how anomalous the 12-13 season is. However, more importantly it looks to me like your chances of finishing in the bottom half have dramatically reduced from 1/2 to 1/6. Your chances of relegation have gone from 1/6 to 1/24 (though that is including the anomalous season).


Obviously it's just stats, but that suggests a strong start is better.




For the stattos with too much time on their hands, you can check further back here:
http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2014-2015/table

Change the season and the date on the drop down boxes on the top right of the table




EDIT: A further check of the two seasons before that make the odds look even more in our favour (in 08-09, four of the top six were top six after three matches and two were promoted, 09-10 both Newcastle and West Brom were top after 3 matches).

 

There's a lot of 'ifs' in football, you'll drive yourself crazy thinking about it lol.

 

My heads hurting Rob.

 

Sorry!

I tried to put a health warning at the top.

The quickest summary I can give is that if you are in the top 6 after 3 games that is a very good indication that you will still be in the top 6 by the end of the season, and the automatic promotion spots are invariably taken up by teams in the top 6 after just 3 games.

 

Ha, yeah, somewhat foolishly I thought I could handle the numbers. I like a good stat but you beat me all ends up with that one.

Cheers for the simplification. As I said yesterday I think we'll have a good season in any case, but our away form will determine whether it'll be a great season!