Beautifully put Oddy! You been on the competitively priced and full bodied continental lager? Australia will be proved better at 10f imo and will contest the CS and then the BC.
I think the German race is a definite boost for Sea The Moon not only through Lucky Lion but through Magic Artist and particularly Mr Pommeroy. Mr Pommeroy was 7l behind Lucky Lion today and was 5l behind The Grey Gatsby in the Prix du Jockey Club. Mr Pommeroy also have close form with Master Carpenter who has twice been around 4l behind Western Hymn and was third in the Greenham Stakes behind Kingman and Night Of Thunder. I also think Noble Mission ran his race today and through Telescope (improved on firmer going) and Danadana/ Mukhadram feel the weekend's race have pretty much work out. I had Australia about 2-3lbs ahead of Taghrooda after the King George through a snippet of form with Eagle Top's races and have Sea The Moon anywhere from 1-5lbs ahead of Australia.
Just enjoying a tickle of "Palacio De La Vega" Dex - a very reasonably priced Crianza, a mixture of Cabernet Sauvignon and Tempranillo
This ‘collapse’ in Sea The Moon’s price must be with German bookmakers. Exactly two weeks ago, the best price available was 6/1 with thirteen bookies that are listed on OddsChecker. Nine were still 6/1 at 2pm today. Five of them will still stand your bet at 6/1 whilst three of them have ‘collapsed’ the odds to 9/2. I do not think that Avenir Certain will stay, but I expect that they will go to the Prix Vermeille with her if the Arc is the plan. I wonder if they might drop her back to a mile and go to Deauville for the Prix Rothschild (next week) and the Prix Jacques le Marois (17 August).
My thoughts about Avenir Certain were based upon trainer's comments after Prix de Diane (11F) where he remarked that he was not sure the Arc was the correct race for the filly. Could the end of year target be the Breeders Cup F and M Turf?
I had not seen the comments, but if I had been targeting a race at the Arc meeting it would have been the Prix de l’Opéra over ten furlongs. I would not rule out the Filly and Mare Turf – it is the right trip and the Europeans have a great record in it.
You are, of course, correct about the Prix de l'Opera which was just about my favourite race when I used to attend Longchamp on 'Arc Sunday' with my mother. Looking at the Oddschecker listings for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe the 'Opera' could be the target for many of the 3YO French fillies; We Are, Shamkala etc. As I have the first four covered (3 at excellent prices) I am trying to find an angle, ignoring the Japanese horses, into each way bets with horses intending to run in the 'Arc'. The only two I can see at the moment are Prince Gibraltar and the unbeaten Spiritjim (33/1?). I am aware Spiritjim just wins his races however he seems an ideal each way wager. Where is Ectot; minor injury in May stated trainer?
I have not seen anything about Ectot since June. He was ruled out of the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas), for which he would have challenged for favouritism; and he would have been my pick for the Prix Du Jockey Club but he missed that as well. If they can get him back on the track by Arc Trials Day, he could be the fly in the soup of the Prix Niel on 14th September.
The principal change in the Arc betting this week was not the result of anything happening at York. Over at Deauville, the ten furlong Prix de la Nonette was won by Avenir Certain beating one of her stablemates. Bookmaker reaction was to cut her odds after trainer Jean-Claude Rouget announced that she would bypass the Prix Vermeille and go straight to the big race on October 5th. The Prix de Diane heroine has never run over further and her pedigree suggests good grounds for doubting that she will get home, so she should really be targeting the Prix de l’Opéra. She may be a class three year old filly, but we have one of those who definitely stays. Expectation is that Taghrooda will have little difficulty collecting the Yorkshire Oaks, so unless she wins by ten lengths in a canter it is hard to see her odds contracting. Australia is currently available at 8/1 with Ladbrokes, who clearly share my opinion that he will be a no-show in Paris. It will be the Champion Stakes or the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions’ Day for him. Telescope and non-stayer The Grey Gatsby are now both 40/1. Kingston Hill should get his ground at Longchamp and is available at 25/1 but he may not run before then unless they get some rain on Town Moor. Interestingly Postponed has been introduced at 25/1 but would have to be supplemented to run – just as he would have to be for the St Leger.
The trainer didn't seem too keen on pushing Postponed over 14f so I doubt he will be supplemented for the Leger (unless he's overruled by the owners). There were serious questions as to whether Kingston Hill would have beaten him today. As someone who plumped for KH today I felt quite relieved after that race that he was a NR today. So, being a progressive type there seems to be no reason why connections of Proposed shouldn't be hopeful of beating KH in the Arc. Whether that makes it worth supplementing him, I don't know. It's pretty obvious Australia will not be turning up for the Arc so why are bookies taking bets at 8/1? He should be 8/1 to turn up; and I wouldn't take those odds.
Lots of water to pass under the bridge before then. AOB isn't one to dodge the best races with his top horses.
Might be a chance I can get to the Arc this year, I'm taking the mrs to Paris for her birthday that weekend so it would be wrong of me not to go. Is it easy to get to from Paris?
Now on her birthday weekend away, at which point do I break the news. Just get on a bus and when we get there tell her?
Listen... Australia is the best he has ever trained, so it should be winning the Arc, the Champion Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup. Not long ago you could have backed Kingman and Orfevre with some firms. They will probably give you a price about Sole Power if you enquire. At least Australia holds an entry so your bet would still be alive until the week of the race. Tell her you have invited a few folks along to celebrate with her. Just the odd fifty thousand – and half of them are French. Not sure who is buying the drinks though...
The Arc market shake up after the Yorkshire Oaks will not surprise anyone. Sea The Moon has favouritism to himself now with Taghrooda now available at 10/1 in a few places whilst her conqueror Tapestry (a three year old filly in a race where they have an excellent record), trained by Aidan O’Brien is 14/1, giving punters even more reason to shun the 8/1 about Australia. You can still have 10/1 about Just A Way if you think he will stay. Any word on last year’s Derby winner Ruler Of The World (40/1)? I cannot recall a market so dominated by non-French horses, so I should mention that Treve is 6/1 and Avenir Certain is 12/1 – the only two French horses in the top dozen of the betting.
