Now that the World Cup is over and the new season starts in less than a month, I have turned my attention to the Premiership and what may be in store for us next season, and share my thoughts below. ANALYSIS OF LAST SEASON’S TABLE For me, one of the most striking features of last season’s Premiership table is the games lost column. Teams from 10th place (Newcastle with 49 points) lost at least 18 games. The only exception in the bottom 11 teams is WBA who finished in 17th on 36 points with only 16 losses. In fact, all the other teams from 13th onwards lost 20 or more matches. Based on this, it is highly probable that we could also potentially lose 20 matches next season, and with this assumption, there could be ONLY 18 POINT SCORING GAMES. OBJECTIVES & POINTS TARGET FOR NEXT SEASON it is fairly obvious that that our primary objective for next season is to survive and hopefully build a platform for future sustainability in the Premiership. I personally would set a minimum target of 40 points, and preferably slightly higher at say 42 points. With this objective and assumption for games lost, the permutations are W11 & D7 for 40 pts, W12 & D6 for 42 pts or W13 & D5 for 44 pts. Clearly the driver are the “wins” and a “let’s get a draw” strategy for next season would be very risky. Thus, I would personally set a pre-season TARGET OF “12 WINS”. For info, during our last stint in the Premiership we achieved 10 wins in the 1st season and only 4 wins in our relegation season. TACTICS FOR NEXT SEASON So how to win 12 matches? Clearly it needs to be a mix of both home and away games, with an emphasis on a STRONG HOME RECORD , say 8 home wins & 4 away. Obviously we will not have the most technical or individually gifted players, so it will need to a strong and disciplined TEAM PERFORMANCE. I do not envisage at it will be possible to out possess teams so will need to have a very SOLID DEFENCE. I personally believe that good team are always built from the back, and I think it will be critical for next season. Key will be to have a fast counter attack and take advantage of set pieces. I would not be surprised if we tried to play with three centre backs and wing backs in some 3-5-2 formation for the “tough” matches, and a 4-2-3-1 formation for the “to win” matches. However, end of the day it will need to be a very DISCIPLINED AND SPIRITED TEAM with the attitude of holding on to wins when available, turning draws into wins, and trying to grind out draws form potentially lost matches. KEY SUCCESS FACTOR I also think it is key to get off to a GOOD SOLID START, especially as we have some early potentially winnable games. My biggest concern is that we still need to strengthen, the new season is fast approaching and we cannot say “we need some time for the team to gel”. I truly hope that we can carry over the momentum and positive energy from the play-offs to next season. For whatever reason, I feel more comfortable about the Premiership this time around. I think we will be better prepared. Let’s hope! I am interested in your thoughts and comments.
Harry is talking about 3-5-2 isnt he, which I'm not unhappy with - given the number of times we were overrun in midfield in the last half of the season.
Tooting- in theory it is an interesting system. It was successfully used by Holland and Chile in the World Cup. I am just concerned that it failed when we tried it a few times last season as the players seemed a bit lost and confused. Will we really try to plan a new system, with some new players in the the Premiership? I just hope that the coaching staff is efficinent. I personally would stick to the tried and tested and tested 4-2-3-1 as we need a solid start.
Interesting analysis. I think you can factor us in to beat one of the bigger teams, once in the season. After that it is hard graft in the league within the league from about 9th downwards! I agree the draw strategy is risky but obviously you try for draws against the big boys and park the proverbial bus. I really hoped we were not going to be relegation fodder this year but we are unless a Swans like team emerges very rapidly over the next few weeks. I really hate to say this (and my posts will attest that I am not a complete doom and gloom merchant) but just at the moment it feels a bit gloomy going into the new season. It's probably just post OBZ blues and I will be fine come mid August.
The one thing that gives me hope for our survival, is the stability/strength of the core of our team. Green Simpson-Ned-Rio/Dunne-Caulker/ANO/Hill-Yun/Traore Joey-Ali-Granero Phillips-Charlie To me, that is a team that can survive But 2 or 3 major injuries and we are in the ****
If Remy's def off to Liverpool we need a striker or better two very urgently. Going into the season with Charlie & OBZ would be making last season's mistakes all over again
I agree that we have a reasonable core to a team, but we need to seriously strengthen with about another 5-6 players. The sooner they arrive the quicker we can prepare. New team members should ideally intergrate and gel in the pre-season not "the season". I fear that Harry likes to make spectacular signings at the end of the transfer window, which may be a bit late.
Very much looking like Harold want to be hard to beat ... No idea if that is right but if we limp through with 0-0 results I won't be going many times Looks very stale to me unless we buy a goal scorer Survival my arse ... Bet you Burnley will have a go
Other than the Icelandic lad have we been seriously linked with any other strikers? I can't go through another Will Keane season
With the current squad, we will be more rock bottom than we were in 2012-2013. We wouldn't get 20 points, never mind 40 needed to survive. We need 5-6 quality players minimum.
I personally would be pleased if we were hard to beat. I also believe that you need a solid and realiable defence for the rest of the team to function. But draws will get you nowhere without wins, and to get wins you need to get goals. We clearly need to get new talent in midfield as well as attack, and get them to play as one team quickly. Some of the early games are ones earmarked for potential wins.
I'll feel a lot more at ease if we manage to sign Caulker. In Ferdinand, Onouha, Caulker and Dunne we've got 4 pretty solid centre halves. I think we're set at Left Back. Traore and Yun Suk Young deserve a chance. Danny Simpson needs competion for the Right Back slot. Midfield is the interesting one. If we're playing with 3 in CM then Granero or Faurlin should occupy the deep lying play maker position. Ahead of them Barton is an easy pick for the box to box role, and we need a dynamic attacking midfielder alongside them. Mark Davies has been linked, maybe this will be his role. Matt Phillips is the first choice wide man but we need someone to compete or better yet displace Hoillet from the starting XI. Arsenal have a load of midfielders, I'd be looking at Serge Gnabry on loan for the season. Bags of ability and he'd have a great season starting every week. Up front is where we need the most reinforcements. We need a proven goalscorer at this level. Austin will run his socks off but is completely unproven. We need a forward with bags of pace who can play on the last shoulder and give the opposition something to think about.
All very well being hard to beat, but that makes for boring football for the spectators, and more chance of losing than winning. As is always the case, we need a balance of being hard to beat, but with the ability to win against teams we are on par with, and maybe nick a few wins against teams we don't deserve to beat. Looking at the team above, I can see us holding out for a few undeserved draws, but not winning many on the break. Getting in a poacher in the style of Helguson would make me much happier.
I see Joey and Ali playing deeper, with Granero playing the attacking role. With his fitness he can run all day long long, and 4 years younger than joey !!
How many loans are we allowed to have playing? I expect us to have that number in the first IX come the beginning of September.
I see that Derby have signed George Thorne from WBA for an undisclosed fee.......would have been a good signing as he was very good with Derby last season when they had him on loan...... So whilst we are farting around trying to sign players other clubs are busy doing what is necessary to strengthen......he, Hendrick, Blondie and Bryson make a formidable midfield, expect they will be favourites for promotion........
I'm amazed they've held onto Bryson, Hughes & Thorne. They could've al gone to PL clubs- so fair play Steve; he must've created something really powerful in that dressing room.
