On a sound surface Telescope looks to have it but if it comes up soft Noble Mission, at 16/1, might be better value.
With a week until the race, the weather forecast could turn out to be critical. Whatever the state of the ground, I can only see seven or eight facing the starter at Ascot. If the going is Good or softer, I do see Noble Mission taking his chance; however, I would expect James Doyle to try and repeat the tactics that almost succeeded at Saint Cloud, which would not mean any definite end-to-end pace. If the ground is fast, Flintshire may come over from France to represent Khalid Abdullah. My suspicion is that Jim Bolger will run Leitir Mor as a pacemaker for Trading Leather, so that may ensure no hanging around. Trading Leather won a moderate Irish Derby last term but he has not exactly inspired much confidence in any of his performances since if you are a win punter. Theoretically, Paul Hanagan faces a dilemma with the choice of Hamdan Al Maktoum’s runners. That should be a no-brainer – an unbeaten three-year-old Classic winning filly, Taghrooda, in receipt of lumps of weight from her elders or the Eclipse Stakes winner Mukhadram who is unproven at the trip. Too much rain may see William Haggas’ charge withdrawn. Sir Michael Stoute’s two four year olds will surely be reduced to just Telescope who will come here looking to complete the Hardwicke Stakes double, although his bloodless victory in that Group 2 event was against moderate opposition. Expectation, at least judging on the betting, is that Aidan O’Brien will be represented by Magician, who has only won once in four starts this term but keeps on collecting prize money. It is almost impossible to tell before the race whether any individual horse from Ballydoyle is going to run to its form or not, so supporters of the Breeders’ Cup winner will just have to take their chances. At this stage, preference is for Taghrooda, despite the form of her two easy three-year-old victories looking decidedly dodgy.
Beefy, the form of a race can be horrific but it won't stop people on here banging on about an animal they've got excited about.
One can never tell how good a horse is when beating inferior opposition. We only have to look at Sea The Stars. Not one piece of good form if you look at who he beat and by how far yet it is readily accepted that he was one of the Greats. Trying to measure how superior a horse is to what it has actually achieved is a very subjective art. We may be proved right or we may be proved wrong; or the horse can get injured or retire to stud and we are no better off. The clock never lies and if, having taken account of all factors, there is no doubt that it was an exceptionally fast time, that is a fairly good starting point as to what it can actually achieve. What we do know is that Taghrooda and Telescope both go well on a sound surface. In terms of relative times I would say that the colt has the edge so, for me, it's down to: will the weight allowance make up the difference which one won with the most in hand and which one will have improved the most since their last win Well, f**ed if I know so I won't be backing.
I am on the filly and she owes me nothing. You can only beat what is put in front of you bot at the same time I respect everbodys comment about the form having more negative than positives. She still has any amount of improvement to come as well. Oh.....and its not going to rain this week!
True Bob but we're all guilty of that at times. Its a poor race, won't take much winning so the filly certainly has a chance.
Course she does. She's got a group 2 winner to beat. Albeit an impressive one. No reason why she shouldn't win. Not a race I'd punt in though.
Sorry lads edited the question after spotting the obvious - who was the last filly before Danedream to win it? And for that matter, the last 3YO filly?
So Dahlia 1973 the last 3YO filly to win it? Tough ask. Don't know why they sent Salsabil to the Irish Derby instead of this
Taghrooda is a Group 1 filly, she beat Group 2 fillies in the Oaks like a Group 1 filly should but she has to step up again here. Telescope was starting to look disappointing but two runs on bad ground, needing the run in the first, on a track that wouldnt have suited in the second, being beaten by a horse in the form of his life who went on to beat Magician in a Group 1, can be excused. In the Hardwicke he done it in similar style to Harbinger, beating Hillstar and Pethers Moon, who went on to run well in a Group 2 at Newmarket, by 7 lengths. It was Group 1 class performance, in my opinion, one of the strongest performances I have seen this season and if he replicates it he will blow them away. Judging by his profile and his trainer, I wouldnt be surprised if he improved on it. That was the first time we seen the Telescope that we wanted to see, and I will admit to being one of his knockers but after that last performance you would be a fool not to take notice. Taghrooda is a class filly and its great that she is running here but Telescope is an absolute certainty and 2/1 is a gift. I dont think he is an Arc type but he will be a lot shorter than 34 on Betfair and 16s with the bookies if he wins in the style I expect him to.
