Royal Ascot Wednesday 6 Races 2:30-5:35p.m. Going Change: As @ 2:45p.m. Wednesday 18/6/14 Straight Course: Good to Firm Round Course: Good to Firm (Good in Places) Going Stick: As @ 8:00 a.m. Wednesday: Standside 9.2: Centre 9.0: Farside 9.0: Round 8.0 Stalls: Straight Course Centre Weather: A little light drizzle early Wednesday morning less than 1/2mm to 7:30am. Forecast: Mainly dry for the week ahead, possible showers on Thursday Wednesdays 6 Race Card 2:30p.m. Jersey Stakes, Group 3, Class 1, 3-Y-O, 7 Furlongs 3:05p.m. Queen Mary Stakes, Group 2, Class 1, 2-Y-O Fillies, 5 Furlongs 3:45p.m. Prince of Wales's Stakes, Group 1, Class 1, 4-Y-O +, 1 Mile 2 Furlongs 4:25p.m. Duke of Cambridge Stakes, Group 2, Class 1, 4-Y-O+ Fillies&Mares, 1 Straight Mile 5:00p.m. Royal Hunt Cup, Handicap, Class 2, 3-Y-O +, 1 Straight Mile 5:35p.m. Sandringham Handicap, Listed Race, Class 1, 3-Y-O Fillies, 1 Straight Mile Other Meetings Hamilton 8 Races 1:50-5:55p.m. Uttoxeter National Hunt 7 Races 2:10-5:45p.m. Southwell(E) National Hunt 7 Races 6:10-9:10p.m. Ripon(E) 6 Races 6:50-9:20p.m. Wexford(IRE)(E) National Hunt 7 Races 6:00-9:00p.m. Good Luck
All about ABSEIL in the Hunt Cup for me. Topped up at 11/2 this evening. Cheeky double on the American horse and TREVE who I truly hopes shows her class on her first trip over!
4.25 Ascot - Certify 12/1 Quite frankly, i am absolutely astonished at this price! The best 2 year old filly by quite some way two years ago who won impressively on her first run back from the year off in Meydan. Ran no sort of race next time out but that is completely understandable after the time off she had and was also reportedly in season too. Sky Lantern will be dangerous if running to her best first time out. Integral and Esoterique whilst looking smart, don't look top class which Certify potentially is. There are obviously risks attached but they are factored into the price and then some! Should be 5/1 max in my eyes.
I was surprised at the odds for Certify. But it is a tough race. At least the odds allow ew. The one I like is Muteela in the last. Looks a cracking ew bet at 8/1. Sired by Dansili out of Nufoos who is by Zafonic out of a Green Desert mare. Lovely pedigree for a miler, is unbeaten and will like the ground.
Agree with Brough re Certify - I got 14's ew with Lads. Looking for the ew value so going against Treve with Danke, who also looks overpriced at 14-1. I can see why Abseil is all the rage for the Hunt Cup, but to my eyes, Red Avenger was hugely unlucky to be hampered by Abseil last time out and should at least finish close to that rival this time. And at 25-1 with 365, is much better value than the 7-2 Abseil. I also like Muteela in the lucky last, Ron - 8-1 with PP at the moment. Asc Wednesday 2-30 That Is The Spirit ew 14-1 Lad 15-05 Harry's Dancer ew 14-1 Lad 3-45 Danke ew 14-1 PP 4-25 Certify ew 14-1 Lad 5-00 Red Avenger ew 25-1 365 5-35 Muteela ew 8-1 PP Good luck all
Although Treve is the best filly in the World, is 16lb clear on Timeform ratings, and should easily account for these, just a few words of caution. Treve's best Timeform Master Rating (134) was in the Arc, 12f on soft ground. Her highest Master (ie unadjusted) rating on ground without soft in the description is 124. The Fugue's highest Master Rating was 128+ on good ground over 10f. Just saying. please log in to view this image please log in to view this image
MOSS GROVE 3.20 Uttoxeter 9-2 foiled our Rogue Dancer gamble on Monday. I know ours was out of the handicap but we know he is way way better than that mark and the yards back to the third horse has me believing that this boy must be very well handicapped at the moment. If none the worse for Mondays exertions a seven pound penalty should not stop him. Gavin Sheehan up again tomorrow and 9/2 looks very fair. ROGUE DANCER will be out again at the weekend, currently 12lbs wrong so lets hope a few at the top are not turning up!
This Royal Hunt Cup is a real teaser. I would have thought that Chil The Kite (18/1) Here Comes When (25/1) and Ocean Tempest (40/1) are all over priced as is my ew above
Wooly do the honours fella - just about broke even today thanks to the yank horse (PWISE) in the last.
Royal Ascot 2:30 - Musical Comedy 16/1 3:05 - Blue Aegean 14/1 & Harry's Dancer 10/1 3:45 - Treve wins but no value in the price for me so just a novelty ten bob ew on Zambucca at 100/1 just for fun 4:25 - Certify only got 10s but i agree that its too big a price and the horse is being over looked somewhat. 5:00 - Lottery race but i think Steeler is a huge price at 33s so he's got my ew money 5:35 - Lady Lara 20/1 Away from Ascot have done a lucky 15: 5:55 Hamilton - Sergeant Pink 9/1 8:10 Southwell - Epee Celeste 9/2 8:20 Ripon - Kickboxer 9/4 9:20 Ripon - Aryal 5/1
The Jersey Stakes usually attracts two types of horse – the ones that did not last the mile in the Guineas and the ones that are on the upgrade. After his no-show in the Craven, Anjaal sidestepped the Classics altogether and Sudirman was useless in a Listed race on his seasonal bow. Muwaary stepped up in grade markedly and was a commendable fourth to Karakontie in the Poulains last time and if he is still on the upgrade has a clear chance. I cannot see any reason for giving Parbold another chance after four defeats this term and Giovanni Boldini has done nothing either. Mustajeeb’s third in the Irish Guineas (admittedly quite remote behind Kingman) does at least look up to the standard required given the question marks against so many of the others. Just like the Coventry Stakes, the Queen Mary is easily bypassed with the main interest being Wesley Ward’s raider Spanish Pipedream. With the ground drying out, I do not think that Treve is any good thing in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. She will need to be at her best if this turns out to be a tactical affair as The Fugue, Mukhadram, Magician and Dank are all smart on their day. On the official ratings she should win this by two or three lengths, so will Frankie be showboating in front of the Royal box? From a punting point of view, the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes look very interesting. After Toronado’s performance in the meeting curtain raiser, it should be okay to take Sky Lantern’s fitness on trust and she should run a good race. Esoterique bettered Integral in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on her debut; and last year’s Pouliches’ runner-up is definitely one for the shortlist.Certify had good form as a juvenile but missed last season and disappointed back in February in Meydan, so can be easily passed over. I wonder if this might be too short for the French raider and that could allow Sir Michael Stoute’s filly Integral to gain her revenge. If there were a thirty runner mile handicap on a Wednesday afternoon at Pontefract, I would not give it a second look; so I will leave the Royal Hunt Cup to the fashionistas. The finale does not look any easier with just six fewer.
True. This is ten furlongs on ground that will be good by race time, not twelve furlongs on soft ground. There may be a small field but this will not be a married man’s gallop like the Grand Prix de Paris could be early in July. Treve ran on “bon” ground on her debut but it has always had give in it ever since. I am not saying she will not win but if 2/7 Brazil can underperform, so can a 4/6 racehorse. Pricewise are a bit late in the day going with The Fugue. The odds have been contracting since her last piece of serious work was reported at the weekend; this is arguably her best trip and the ground is going in her favour.
My picks for tomorrow are: 3.05 Spanish Pipedream - I know it's only had one run and that was at Keenland (on the polytrack) but Wesley Ward does not send his runners over here unless they stand a chance and I have taken the 5/2 with B365. 3.45 Treve - Really cannot see this being beat, not backed it at the current price of 4/6 but have it in an Acca with Toronado, Kingman & Leading Light 5.00 Abseil - Picked up a competitive handicap at the Epsom Derby Meeting, travelling well throughout. Niceofyoutotellme - Cracking re-appearance at the Newmarket Guineas meeting, travelling well through the race before making it's winning challenge. Not seen since but I wonder if this has been the plan to freshen up the horse for this race, at 16/1 & 5 places with B365 it's a no brainer for me.
