My favourite week of flat racing and one that often sees some early season form turned upside down. I am really looking forward to some great Group One action next week and also finding out how good the early two year olds are. Of course though what I most look forward to is the nightmare handicaps! Interested to hear everyones early RA thoughts and fancies. Here are a few of mine; ABSEIL 6/1 Royal Hunt Cup. This horse is much better than handicap class and although single figures looks short enough for many it will look great value when he hoses up! PALE MIMOSA 16/1 Gold Cup. The further she goes the better she seems to get and at the prices has to be an each way punt for a yard firing on all cylinders! BALLINDERRY BOY N/A Ascot Stakes Handicap. Laid out for this, get on early when prices are available as I am sure it will get hammered. In the juvenile section I am really taken with KOOL KOMPANY as he has that wonderful combination of class and guts. Of the fillies I really like the look of LIKELY but it looks like Wesley Ward could have yet another very strong raiding party! TORONADO is a wheelbarrow job in the Queen Anne but the Kingman/Night Of Thunder rematch in the St James Palace is surely too close to call. Thoughts please gentlemen.........
Couple of quick thoughts; What you say about Abseil is probably true. But 6/1 in a 30 runner handicap up the straight course at Ascot? Toronado, yes. Kingman even more yes. I'm convinced the way Guineas was run inconvenienced him massively by placing all the emphasis on stamina. He was forced to use his turn of foot at the hardest point of the race and was just outstayed by Night of Thunder. He still outstayed the Derby winner though. I shall be parking a truck full of cash on Kingman. And the certainty of the week is surely Treve in the PoW.
I'm going on Tuesday but unfortunately have no strong fancies on anything yet, normally do very well at this meeting only betting on the group races. Have already backed Sole Power but only a smallish bet probably top it up on the day.
Completely agree with on Toronado cannot believe he is still odds against surely he will go odds on on the day, In the duke of Cambridge surely it has to be all about Sky Latern is easiet the classiest horse in the field and she has a good record of going fresh so as long as she has she'd abit of her winter weight she will take a lot of beating In the Gold Cup as long as the ground stays on the softer side of good Tac De Boistronwill have a great chance, have followed this horse all season so far has won a group 1 over in France last season and dispatched a decent field at ascot earlier this season then came a good second to an impressive Gospel Choir at York over good ground and at 12/1 is a great ew bet as he seems to be improving all the time
It's a worrying race. On paper Treve seems to have the wood on them, but she's on a new track, different country etc. I don't know whether Cirrus Des Aigles is all that's cracked up to be, he may be, but I just don't know. Both he and Treve came right away in the Prix Ganay, so I suppose that's a plus, but were the rest really that good? My problem is that I can't find anything that's worth a decent punt to beat her. I don't think she's value, but could any of the rest have achieved her feats.... I think not.
3 horses stand out for me next week. THE LIEUTENANT in the Ascot Stakes, RADIATOR in the Sandringham Handicap and CANNOCK CHASE in whichever heat Sir Michael opts for. Ascot had a lot of rain overnight, incidentally, and the ground is now good to soft, good in places.
I find the key to Royal Ascot with regard punting is to stick to the predictable races and avoid those with way too many possibles. This meeting sums up punting in general in that there are very reliable form lines in the group races and very difficult to read handicaps in which 20 out of 30 runners have a feasible chance. The Royal Hunt Cup is a great example of sticking to punting principles in this way for me. I very much agree with Stick that Abseil looks a cracking chance as he is clearly a group horse in waiting, listed at least. The problem is however that there will be 30 horses, of which some will have been handicapped for a year for this race, there may also prove a draw bias and trouble in running, all of which means I have to let him win at 6-1 rather than place money down.The same goes for these sprints which are mdd more difficult by international runners who we know little about and even less about how they will run. The money to be made at Royal Ascot for me is down to three horses to be bet in singles, doubles and a treble. Treve, Kingman, Toronado and two out of three will need win to show a profit and i am quite comfortable in believing that will happen, should the three go in then it will pay well. With regard ground I believe Ascot will ensure good/ good to firm in places. the grass at that place is immaculate and will provide a cushion even if it comes up genuine good to firm and this should not inconvenience anyone. A great week in prospect - good luck to all.
THE ground at Ascot eased significantly on Saturday morning with heavy overnight rain leaving the going as good to soft, good in places. A total of 15mm of rain altered the going from Friday's description of good, good to firm in places. Wasnt worried about the ground for Treve, arguably her best performance was on good ground in the French Oaks when she smashed the track record, but rain will help Kingman. Ground should be perfect provided no more rain, no excuses for anyone.
Looks to be a long list of shorties this year who look to have outstanding credentials but the one I'm least keen on is Toronado. I think O'Brien's American import (third in the Lockinge, Verrazano?) could give him plenty to think about, recalling how Declaration of War improved last year. The worrying thing is O'Briens stable form looks dire which would also worry me on his Gold Cup favourite Leading Light. If the stable bangs out a winner of two by then though he'd be a confident looking pick in a substandard Gold Cup. Treve looks the goodest of good things but I'll be waiting till the day to get some levels you devils as she's simply classes above the rest. Will be good to see her out of home country and potentially hang around for a King George showdown with Aussie! Cracker!
The key to Royal Ascot is simple. On the first day the card is dominated by non-handicaps, so the punter has good prospects of finding a couple of winners. If you go home winning on Tuesday take the money and run. If you are losing, you have hardly any realistic chance of chasing your losses. Reportedly there was significant rainfall at Ascot overnight and that added to them watering the track (a policy with which I disagree) means that the going currently is on the soft side of good. The weather forecast is dry but they will still have the taps on. That will presumably mean that the big rematch between Kingman and Night Of Thunder in the St James’s Palace Stakes will happen but I expect that John Gosden’s charge will be around the Even money mark so I will just be watching. Just like with Cheltenham, there will be half a dozen short-priced bankers at Ascot and two or three of them will be turned over. There is talk about The Queen winning the Gold Cup again but reports from Newmarket are not all good regarding Estimate so I expect the bookies to oppose her and I will be giving it a miss. Cyc, you are not alone. If the ground dries out, I believe that will be against Treve on her first visit to these shores. On the 2013 International ratings, she has several pounds in hand of all her opponents and should win if we assume that she is still as good as her Arc performance. On dry ground, she could be turned over by The Fugue or Mukhadram. Like you, I am very suspicious of the Prix Ganay form. I do think that Cirrus Des Aigles is over-rated by a number of pundits (including Jim McGrath) who should know better. When Corine Barande-Barbe’s gelding raced against Frankel, he was at the peak of his powers and justified his lofty rating as the second-best horse in Europe; however, since then he has not put in a performance within six or seven pounds of that rating. His current International Rating is just 123. Using him as a yardstick, Treve ran nowhere near her 130 rating. Other than when she put up that rating winning the Arc by five lengths, she had never run near to that mark previously.
I think the Ganay was the best race in Europe so far this season. The Fugue isnt in Treve's league and Mukhadram will give her a lovely lead to the 2 pole. Cape Verdi, Kazzia, Mark Of Esteem, Shamardal, Swain, Singspiel, Daylami, Authorized, Refuse To Bend, Ravens Pass, Halling, Sakhee, Doyen, Sulamani, Lammtarra, Ouija Board, Balanchine, Fantastic Light, Dubai Millennium "She is physically more strong and now she is content, shes not so hot in the beginning of the gallop and that means she saves more energy and shes got a better kick. If I said that I think she is better than last year you would think im crazy, shes the best horse in the world and shes probably the best horse ive ridden, she is unique, she is fantastic." Frankie Good luck anyone opposing with Mukhadram and The Fugue And beef, it might be a long wait for the evens, told you all to take the 2/1 and 7/4
Had a ticket for Tuiesday but can't go as I can't walk too well at the moment I like Olympic Glory and Hot Streak in the first 2 races
Too bad I wanted 11/4! This is a different kettle though, if they go evens on the day i'll go in again, maybe one or two might go evens for publicity in the morning for about 90 seconds. Shes closer to a 1/3 shot than an evens shot for me.
Cirrus Des Aigles is still rated 123 after the Prix Ganay, the Prix d’Ispahan and the Coronation Cup; whilst the Derby winner Australia was rated 123 for one race... If Treve wins like her 130 rating from the Arc, maybe 4/6 is buying money but I do not do odds-on horses.
I dont put much value in official ratings to be honest, obviously needed in handicaps and its our job to spot the mistakes but outside of handicaps it doesnt concern me, just another opinion. CDA got marked up to justify Frankel's rating and after looking past it early last season its no surprise that mark has dropped markedly. In my opinion he is as good as ever this year, he came cruising in the Sheema but didnt get home again over the trip on that course, won both the Dispahan and the Coronation Cup comfortably, but his best performance was the Ganay with optimal trip and ground. Maybe the race wasnt ideally run to award a high rating but I can assure you CDA and Treve down that straight was the strongest race I have seen this season by a long way. Australia deserves to be up there in the ratings, the Guineas looks strong and he was value for more than the bare form of the Derby, but whether he deserves to have the same rating as CDA after that im sure many will disagree, I dont really care. The fact that Olympic Glory is rated 2 pounds higher than CDA on 125 tells you everything you need to know about official ratings. They are a rough guide and final ratings will be disputed at the end of every season. I prefer to trust my own judgement of the strength and class of a race. I dont do odds on either, thats why im on at 2/1.
