The Derby looks a good race but so does the Coronation Cup with Cirrus des Aigles, and both last years Derby and Oaks winners taking him on. When was the last time the previous years Epsom classic winners turned up for the Coronation Cup? I think I know when (1960) but does someone know when was the last time?
I dont think Cirrus really stays 1m4 at the top level, got away with it once in Meydan and a couple of times in France in lesser races, if the pace isnt hot and he can sit handy they will be playing into his hands, Obrien will need to run Ernest as a pacemaker to have any chance of beating him. None of the others in the Derby would have got anywhere near Kingman in the Guineas, if Australia stays he wins.
Then I'm sure O'Brien will make sure Cirrus is stretched Boris. Still looks a good race with a couple of improving horses thrown in the mix as well.
With the rain falling, there has to be a strong possibility that the word “soft” will appear in the going report at Epsom this weekend (current report “good”, with the forecast not ruling out the possibility of poor weather for the two Classics that could lead to sticky ground for The Derby. I expect that this will see the odds of Kingston Hill, a first Derby ride for Italian Andrea Atzeni (move over Frankie!), contract quite considerably as he is a known mudlark (the horse, not the jockey) so his chances will be greatly improved whilst several others will be inconvenienced. As the rain this spring has seen most of the principal trials run on dead ground, that may be of some assistance to form pundits even though most of the available form lines look suspicious at best and unreliable at worst. With seventeen potentially lined up to face the starter, there is a good chance that hard luck stories will be plentiful after the race. If Australia turns out to be the latest hype horse and the four-pronged Ballydoyle attack draws a blank, there could be a 20/1 shot in the winner’s enclosure on Saturday afternoon.
Cirrus des Aigles now at 4/5 after Ruler of the World has pulled out looks a very good bet - certainly a lot better than any price given for Australia. I would have sided with this horse even if Ruler of the World had taken part - 2 very good victories already this spring and he should be spot on for this.
Hold the thought on Good ground......... http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=1161979&category=0 Not good for me, having backed Australia at 25/1 in July 2013! ;o( Gone EW on Orchestra, Ryan Moore said he didn't even push him hard there, he should definitely improve and he definitely stays. He also travelled round Chester beautifully, so should have no problem with Epsom.
Australia now 6/4 incredible that he was odds on this time last week, also Ryan will be on board Geoffrey Chaucer
Pinzolo amongst the final 16 and James Doyle will ride him. Think current quotes of 66/1 re this one are Massive with a capital ‘M’.
........... and in an Impulsive Moment I'll be across Our Channel and off to Kingston Hill to watch the Orchestra playing some Fascinating Rock and a Western Hymn while I listen to Geoffrey Chaucer telling me the True Story of how the Derby was won by Australia.
Anyone else beginning to think this year's Derby is turning out to be a pain in the arse? Like everyone else, I think Australia is the one to beat. His run in the Guineas was a first rate trial for this race, but he's no value as far as I can see. And the more I look at the rest of the field, the more confused I become. I read during the week where Ryan Moore said that to win this race, you need a type with gears. And he cares not about the track. He's of the opinion that eight out of ten Derbies are won by the best horse. He's on a second string AOB animal who he says has those gears. But the other three stable runners seem lengths off the public elect. It's also hard to find a solid case for any who finished behind Australia in the Guineas, so where too next? True Story to continue the Fallon fairytale? From what I gather, he seems fairly bullish about the horse's chances. But I can't come at it, not on form. So I've settled on a deep chested, ball of muscle at the bottom of the list, Western Hymn. He seems to be an animal heading in the right direction. I came across the horse on Youtube, where he did some serious work over 10f. A good many horses can look world beaters when placed alongside crap opposition, but I suspect that this gallop was a real test of a serious animal's ability. Have a look and see what you think. Out on a limb time. WESTERN HYMN. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i47FXihwNLw
The price is a farce, he has the best form on his Guineas run as everyone knows but the price is all hype, New Approach came into the race with much better credentials, as champion 2yo, beaten a nose by a top class miler in the Guineas, by Galileo out of Park Express 1m4 mare, crying out for a trip, and he was 6/1 on the day. He should be about 3/1 7/2, especially if the rain comes, I knew New Approach would stay, not as sure about Australia and I doubt he is as good as New Approach anyway. Ive went off Ebanoran because the Oasis Dream factor, Kingston Hill and Western Hymn are the two that are standing out to me now, Western Hymn seems to have the natural class but he looks a handful, would probably pull up in front if you gave him long enough, Buick will have to be at his very best. Kingston Hill just looks rock solid, he ran more like a Derby horse in the Guineas than Australia.
