If its a bloke on a stag do, I am going to go livid!!! Going on the train, so hopefully I will find the bar at some point in the day. I like a good day out at the flat racing, nothing like seeing city kids in suits lose all their money!!
Doesn't look like Kieran will be riding another Derby winner this year, to go with his Guineas success..
Another potential Derby contender bites the dust at York leaving few places to find any credible opponents for the latest wonder horse... The best odds about Australia on Oddschecker now are just 10/11 with Sky Bet and Stan James amongst the ordinary bookies. We are now in the farcical situation where the Derby betting is a reflection of the trainer not being a mute rather than the racecourse achievements of the beast. If there had been no hype, the betting would be four- or five-to-one the field if it were with one of a dozen good British trainers. I hope that the horse proves me wrong and wins by ten lengths on the bridle but I do not see it and there is bound to be some decent value opposing him. If Ectot were not on the easy list, he would be the one at 25/1 as he dispatched the Poule d’Essai des Poulains winner Karakontie with loads in hand in the Prix de Fontainebleau.
A little gutted today as I had some decent doubles with True Story and Taghrooda. I cant have Australia so my search begins again I guess.
The only way Australia will get beat is if he doesnt stay and that looks highly unlikely on breeding. If you were just looking at the pedigree before anyone seen the horse you would say he was 1/20 to stay 1m4 and probably further, but as we know, you get sprint bred horses who stay 2 miles and vice versa. Obrien has been saying this horse has been showing speed from the start that he just wasnt supposed to with a pedigree like that, and his third in the Guineas has backed that up. People love to call hype about a horse, especially when they come from certain trainers, no one mentions it when George Margarson comes out with the best hes ever trained every other year. If Australia doesnt win the Derby by half the track, people will be giving Obrien it but if he wins the Derby even by half a length then I think Obrien might be right, how many of his Derby winners could have ran that race in a good Guineas? I dont think Camelot would have got anywhere near as close to a horse like Kingman on that ground, and I think this will be a harder Derby to win than Camelots. We need to remember Obrien is saying he is the best he has trained, he is not saying he is the best horse since this one or that one. Camelot doesnt get the credit either, he was a serious horse, I know he ended up disappointing but to go that close to winning the English triple crown in this day and age, I dont care how poor the renewals were, that was some animal at those early stages of his career and Obrien was right to say he was the best he had trained. He has had great milers and great middle distance horses but it takes a special one to go close in a good Guineas as a Derby horse. New Approach and Sea The Stars are the only two ive seen, both great horses and if Australia wins the Derby then he is a great horse in my book, how he does it and what he goes on to do will have to be exceptional to challenge the two mentioned. Obviously at the price now he is not a bet for me and probably for most, I was impressed by Ebanorans turn of foot in the Derrinstown, he looked a really nice animal and I think Epsom might suit him, I picked Ebasani over him for my list so looks like I got that one wrong. He will do for me e/w at 25/1.
What's against Australia? A few judges are saying Australia looked very light at Newmarket. If that's the case he was either trained for the day (and all this talk about him being a Derby horse is rubbish) or he's not a bonny colt (which may mean he doesn't take his racing well). Alternatively he may be one of those really good horses who never looks very good. The fact that the jockey got banned for overuse of the whip may point to the fact that he was definitely at the races that day. An Oaks winner has never produced a Derby winner. I know Snow Bride produced Lammtarra but she didn't actually win the race but got it weeks after on the disqualification of the winner. It may just be one of those things and anyway Australia doesn't know that. He's too stoutly bred for the Derby. The classic Derby breeding is a 10f sire out of a 10f mare. You must have speed to win the Derby. Galileo was a true 12f horse although pretty good at 10f, but you have to say better at 12f. Ouija Board was definitely better over 12f, though again she won over 10f. Maybe Australia's bred to get the Leger distance? He's not bred stoutly enough to get the Derby distance. Sounds stupid, and there's nothing wrong with Galileo but there is often something in a pedigree that is the predominant influence. For example Kris would probably not have stayed 10f yet he got a Leger winner in his first crop (probably through the influence of Reliance), but most people would have been expecting 8f horses from Kris if bred to 8f mares. If one looks at Ouija Board one is not bowled over by a stamina replete pedigree. The male great grandparents hardly have you thinking 12f: Danzig, Ahonoora, Tudor Melody and Silly Season, so all 6f-10f performers. Yet obviously Ouija Board stayed 12f and something in her pedigree must have allowed that as her pure distaff side (through Ouija the dam of that tough individual Teleprompter) is also all miler stuff. Maybe further back it's the influence of Alycidon, Sir Ivor and of course Northern Dancer. But what is going to be the influence in Australia? Is it going to be Sadler's Wells or is it going to be Cape Cross who was an out and out miler. People point to Australia's closeness to the first two in Guineas as showing his class, but it may also show he's a 8-10f horse only at this stage of his development. The form so far this year is not worth reading about. Too many changes in the ground, too many stables slow to start and too many flops O'Brien is correct. Enough said. O'Brien is just talking this one up. If it wins he's proved right if it loses he has a barrage of excuses and the horse will be retired because of this or that and he will still be the best he's trained. Personally I think it's a disappointing year but for the 2000G. I hope there are some better horses out there. You have to side with Australia but he still has to prove it on the day.
I think what often happens when a warm order favourite emerges people look for reasons why it won't win but I simply cannot see any other outcome here. The only way Australia doesn't triumph in the Epsom Derby is if he's a non-runner. In fact, the more the race takes shape, an O'Brien 1-2-3, or certainly a 1-2, looks even more likely. The way his 'supersubs' cleaned up the English trials highlights the scarcity of any home challenge.
I'm not entirely convinced Australia will stay either. Ouija Board wasn't guaranteed to get a mile and a half either, but fillies will often get a bit further than their breeding suggests. I don't think he is a St Leger horse. Samanda, the blind unraced mare had a stayers pedigree and she is in the pedigree; otherwise there are a lot ofsprinters and milers.. It will be interesting to see how he does. There is no Derby winner by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner, but Oaks winning mares have produced Derby winners by sires who didn't win the race. Meld's colt Charlotttown won in 1966, he was by French Derby winning Charlottsville.
I took the 33s on offer for Arod after his Windsor romp - and after finishing like a train in the Dante I have taken some of the 20s still available - I know he will still need to improve, but PCH is confident that the firmer ground we'll have in June will suit!!
Australia may win and should be favourite to do so but there is no piece of form which you can confidently use to justify his price, and this is what worries me. If I were taking 8-11 for a horse, which is something I have done but not often, I only do so If I can see hardly any reason whatsoever that it should not win. I need to know that it has proven form at the trip, proven form in the grade and likely above, I want to see that there are little or no unknown quantities in the field and of course that there are no issues with regard going or course. In short you need be able to find very few reasons it should not win when backing odds on. As a betting proposition Australia does not allow you to tick off many, if any at all of the things mentioned above, and for this reason I can see no reason why it should be backed. I feel many punters see it as a race they must bet in and perhaps the need or challenge of finding the winner of such a big race is why it's being backed, however from a betting and valuing the pound in your pocket point of view it should be left well alone. I think he is clearly the price he is simply because the opposition is looking very uninspiring at this point, this said however there are a number of horses such as Kingston Hill who could easily put a bad run behind them and surprise. I am not sure anyone is actually taking the price of Australia as it would take a brave man to do so. In truth I feel you would not need wait too many days with a racing post to find a much more predictable 8-11 favourite with many fewer questions surrounding the race they were contesting. As for Aiden's latest 'best he has trained', we all know how much value that little gem has after being used so many times. In truth however betting prices aside Australia may well be able to be over a stone behind Galliao and High Chaperel and still win this Derby.
Bluesky9, that is a pretty fair assessment of what a lot of people, myself included, think of this year’s Blue Riband at the moment. The current odds about Australia are absolutely nothing to do with the horse’s racecourse achievements – four races, two wins – and everything to do with his trainer’s inability to keep his trap shut. Last year’s wonder horse Kingsbarns did not win a race, did he? Camelot could only beat the rest of a moderate three-year-old generation (except in the St Leger). I think that I will be waiting until the day of the race to see just what lines up, what the going is like and whether Australia looks the part (i.e. does not get worked up, sweating and on his toes in the preliminaries). I definitely will not be having a penny on him but I may oppose him as I have seen a few odds-on good things come unstuck in the Derby that had better form than this one. More likely that I will just be a spectator. My expectation is that my ante post bet, Be Ready will not be living up to his name, so I have already lost money on the race and it is not even June! Add to that it is now twice the odds...
I don't think Australia's form can be knocked as a good horse but it's not that of an odds on shot for the Epsom Derby. If we try and add a little more perspective even Camalot who went off odds on had won the group one Dewhurst at 2 years old and the 2000 Guineas at 3 years before lining up unbeaten, he also had a very weak looking contest with few runners. In my opinion to find what a real Derby odds on shot should look like we need go back to Shergar, who had won two Derby trials over 10f & 12f by 10 and 12 lengths. When you watch those races you simply say 'I cannot see that there is a horse that can beat him'. Australia however , no distance beyond a mile, beaten twice already. I hope however this does not come across as bashing Australia as that is really not my intention as he has done nothing wrong at all and could be very smart indeed, my issue and the points raised are regarding what I see as a very bad price, and highlighting reasons why it's bad. Come the day I will likely have a fun tenner ew on what I see as a well priced outsider or a betvictor without the favourite £20 win, and I will expect Australia to beat it, and if it does I hope it does it well because I love getting excited about seeing a really good horse win the race and watching it get tested later in the season. p.s that's tested as in by his peers, not as in an Al Zarooni get tested.
I'll be eulogising all the way to the bank when Kingman wins the St James Palace at RA. And follows up in the Sussex at GG.
Blue,Camelot didn't win the Dewhurst. You are right in that Australia,just like the over hyped Shergar,has little to beat but he must do it nevertheless. Perhaps the Arabs might buy and dope something to mount a challenge?
