It is not even June, we do not even know the Derby winner and already the first entries are out for the big Paris middle distance showpiece. Anybody wanting to see the whole list of the 113 first stage entries can go to the France Galop fixture calendar, enter âOctobreâ 5 as the date and LONGCHAMP as the course. That will bring up a list of the dayâs races and following the link for the Arc will reveal those that have decided not to wait until Thursday 2 October to pay for a supplementary entry. A statistical breakdown shows the following: Owner entries 13 â Godolphin (+ 1 â Godolphin France) 7 â Coolmore (Tabor/Magnier/Smith et al) 7 â H. H. Aga Khan 7 â Khalid Abdullah 6 â S. A. Aga Khan 5 â Wertheimer & Frere 4 â Hamdan Al Maktoum 3 â Qatar Racing Limited Trainer entries 9 â A. de Royer Dupre 7 â A. Fabre 7 â C. Appleby 6 â A. P. OâBrien 6 â S. bin Suroor 5 â Sir M. R. Stoute 4 â F. Head The bookies were already betting on this a few weeks ago, but now a few more have entered the market. According to Oddschecker, the best odds on offer currently are: 4/1 Treve 10/1 Australia, Just A Way 12/1 Harp Star, Epiphaneia 16/1 Chicquita, Gentildonna, Kizuna 20/1 Shamkala, Ivanhowe, Prince Gibraltar, True Story, Gold Ship, Kingman, Meisho Mambo 25/1 Red Riveur, Miss France, Flintshire 33/1 Ectot, Ruler Of The World 40/1 Kingston Hill, Noble Mission, Al Kazeem 50/1 Geoffrey Chaucer, Taghrooda, Lucky Speed Interesting how the top of the market is packed with potential Japanese contenders. If Australia really is as good as the hype, should we not be grabbing 10/1 with both hands? I think that Taghrooda looks very tempting at 50/1. Surely Kingman is a mugâs bet at 20/1. There are quite a number of potentially good contenders not even mentioned in the betting â Flintshire, Hillstar, Snow Sky...
And after today, we may be saying the same thing about True Story. I agree about Australia's price though .......... damn you QM - I had vowed never to touch AP betting every again after the disaster that was Cheltenham!
All the 50/1 about Taghrooda has mysteriously evaporated after her success in the Epsom Oaks. The best advertised on Oddschecker now is 20/1 on Betfair but there is plenty of 16/1 elsewhere. I am inclined to wait until Shamkala has run in the Prix de Diane, just in case the French fillies are better than ours. Australia can still be had at 10/1 for anyone that thinks O’Brien is telling the truth about him being the best he has ever trained... or what about mudlark Kingston Hill at 40/1. Most of the rest of the Derby field are not even quoted in the Arc betting.
No surprise that victory in The Derby saw Australia’s odds for the autumn showpiece contract to a best 5/1 with the bookies or 26/5 on Betfair. What may be of more interest is the runner-up, Kingston Hill, who is available at 14/1 and we know that soft ground in Paris in October (more than likely) would be in his favour. I am not sure what Orfevre is doing in the Arc betting at 14/1 as he does not hold an entry and I am sure that he was retired last year...
As Reebok has suggested, ante-post is a right mug's game. Wait close to Arc day, and if it does look like a bog (always a chance at Longchamp in October, although the ground has been pretty decent the last few years) then Kingston Hill is the one to be on. Hope they don't run him on firm ground in the Summer months. Kingman 20/1? That shows a lot what turf accountants think of punters, and the impertinence of bookies in general?
I think that Australia might be a bad bet for the Arc as I think he may not show up at all. I can see him dropping back to ten furlongs to utilise his pace and going to the Eclipse Stakes, the Juddmonte International Stakes, the Irish Champion Stakes and then Champions Day. There are plenty of other mug bets in the Arc at the moment as well as Kingman. How about fast ground horses like Flintshire, Magician and The Fugue? Or non-stayers like Karakontie and Ihtimal?
He won't even run IMO if it's soft ground I expect to see him run in the British champion stakes and then breeders cup turf or classic
I don't understand. Australia is a Derby winner, and for breeding purposes he is a horse they surely have to target at the Arc? He is by a Derby winner, out of an Oaks winner. I think they will go the route they did with Galileo, with Irish Derby, King George, Irish Champion and then the Arc (rather than Breeders Cup). He looks a perfect horse for the Arc, if they don't overrace him (as they seem to do with their top classic horses)
Why bother? He's done all he needs to secure a stud career. Fantastically bred, Derby winner. Too valuable to send around again for mine. Why risk a gold mine?
If you are going to rival Frankel at stud, you need more than just impeccible breeding and a Derby win. You need something special like the Arc, or multiple G1s against the best around. He might be worth a lot now, but win a few more big ones and he will be worth a tonne more.
I suppose it's all about end targets. It's hardly likely that he's going to match Frankel as a stud prospect. His breeding is fantastic, but Frankel's outstanding ability will make him much sought after for a while yet. The big question about Australia's future might be about whether he can match Sea The Stars and maybe New Approach. Maybe the problem here Nass, is mine. I've always been afraid of shoving all my chips in the pot.
I backed him last week at 10/1 for the Arc in the full knowledge a soft ground Arc may mean he doesn't even show up. If it's decent ground and he's bagged a 10f race along the way (probably either Eclipse or Irish Champion) they'll head for the Arc. I suspect it'll be largely the same as Sea the Stars all conquering 2009 campaign.
Events at Royal Ascot shook up the Arc betting a fair bit with last weekend’s ante post favourite Treve losing that spot to Australia without that horse leaving his box. The Derby winner is still available at 5/1 for October’s showpiece whilst last year’s winner is now as long as 6/1 with the likes of Ladbrokes. Curiously Paddy Power is shortest at 7/2 and are one of those opposing the Derby winner. The Prince Of Wales’s Stakes winner The Fugue can be backed at 14/1 and is as short as 10/1 for those that think that John Gosden’s filly will show up; but it would surely be wiser to wait until late September and take shorter odds when there is a chance to gauge the prospects of her getting her ground. Taghrooda can still be backed at 16/1 for those that fancy the Epsom Oaks winner, whilst her French counterpart Avenir Certain can be supported at the same odds for those that think she will stay and be aimed at Longchamp. Eagle Top’s facile victory has seen him introduced at 16/1, having previously not been quoted, and the Hardwicke Stakes winner Telescope has contracted from 66/1 to 20/1 for those that can see him taking an away day to Paris. Stablemate Arab Spring is available at 50/1 to continue his rapid progression. If you are a mug, Stan James will now do you 25/1 Kingman, although it does not say whether John Gosden’s colt will be allowed to take a short cut to the winning post. There has not been much movement in the prices of any of the potential Japanese contenders but if you want to back Orfevre at 14/1, Racebets will take your money that he will return to training! This is starting to look like a year where the ante post market may not be much of an indicator to the actual line-up on 5th October as almost all of those mentioned above will not show up because of the race distance or the going.
I think TREVE is now looking a bit of value. Odds on that she will get her ground in October surely and I think she is more ground dependant than some would have us believe. ARAB SPRING worth an each way at 50-1 given is meteoric improvement on ground really not testing enough. If EAGLE TOP were mine I would be eyeing up the St Leger for which he is an interesting 8/1.
