Now I may be missing something but the whole winning run losing run thing, is it actually relevant. I'm thinking along the lines of if you toss a coin it's 50/50 to be heads/tails it's makes no difference to the odds if the previous 100 tosses turned up heads it's still 50/50 that it will be heads. Now I'm not saying that every football match is 50/50 who wins as you have to take into account quality of players tactics and such but do you also take into account how many wins/ losses a team has had prior to a game as to how likely they are to win/lose. If none of that makes sense I can only apologise.
I know exactly what you're saying, Weighty, statistics don't apply/have any relevance to an individual event. I think why Hampys average does happen is due to the nature of the/a league i.e. we're only likely to get two beatable teams in a row before we come across a slightly harder game that we really have to be on good form to get three points from. It would get even more complicated when you start factoring in confidence, styles of play, tactics, home (dis)advantage etc.
Weighty, statistically if you throw 100 heads your next one will be a head because your coin is biased! The previous results do affect the likelihood of the outcome, which is why you have an operator called 'given' Given that this happened, what is the probability of this happening?
Just to take your example of coins - The result of any one outcome is 50/50 but if you toss 100 coins roughly 50 will be heads and 50 tails. Think of the 100 coins as a football season. Even tossing 10 coins will give you roughly five heads and five tails so think of that as a run of ten fixtures. In terms of a football season you can't predict any one result but half way through a season you can definitely predict how many points a team that doesn't make any big changes will finish with.
I was not really referring to Hampys argument but just asking the question as it seems irrelevant as you say to a individual event and every game is an individual event so when does it become relevant if ever.
I agree he would be a great signing but I think we only took him on loan to cover for Didds's injury.I can't see MM playing them both from the start(unfortunately).
It becomes relevant as soon as there is more than one event and the more events there are the more accurately you can make predictions. GCSE maths. There are also things called outliers where you have a predictable number of results that don't fit the pattern. A Level maths. Finally, you can create sophisticated models that represent a whole range of factors that affect the outcomes. Degree level maths.
This is turning into Tom Stoppard's 'Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead'. Heads. Heads. Heads. (repeat ad infinitum)
Ffs guys, enough already!! Lets just beg to differ hey? League position wise this season is an improvement but performance wise....... Also i dont think the league was as strong this season as last, own personal opinion but heyho lets move on!!
How many circles is it going around though and how long does it take to go around the circle, will you definately reach the end of the circle or does the circle not have an end?
Ever Decreasing Circles with the late great Richard Briers playing poor old Martin! I used to love that show!
I think this perfectly sums up this thread. I wish I could keep up to date with stats and probabilities then I wouldn't have to waste my time following football because I'd just know what was gonna happen!!
