Daily Thread Friday 25th April

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stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
18,609
11,653
113
Maidenhead, Berkshire
Despite fair efforts in Class 1 handicaps at Cheltenham and Aintree in recent weeks PATEESE 6.35 Chepstow 12-1 has dropped 5lbs and now races off of 134 which he really should be capable of going very close off. He is a very smart sort on his day and earlier in the season ran the huge improver Mickie very close off this mark. Dickie Johnson is on board for the first time in a while and early exchanges suggest that a big run is on the cards.
 
I have put together a few for tomorrow already and so thought I would put them up.

Sandown
2.10 Telescope 13-8
This horse was the talking horse of Newmarket at this time last year and failed to impress on any of his runs. I know Michael Stoute was often reported to think the absolute world of him and I think that alone means he must be better than he has shown to date. If he is anything approaching previous lofty heights imagined he must be up to winning this race. The Godolphin runner is very respected and sure to provide a stern and appropriate test to see where they go with Telescope.

2.45 Montridge 3-1
I think 3's could look very attractive come off time. I would be worried about the ground becoming too soft if there was more rain but if the ground is ok I think this horse will show his class. Hughsie back for him tomorrow.

3.15 Western Hymn 8-13
I have put this horse up as I feel he will drift a little and at odds just a little bigger would still represent value. He won with any amount in hand recently and is clearly a horse worth following. I think that the race he won will be found to be decent and I can see no opposition for him in this race whatsoever.

Doncaster
1.20 Red Palladin 5-1
Won on first start last season in April in a grade 5 from a mark of 68, runs tomorrow in a grade 5 from 69, it's a competitive race but I feel the horse will be ready and a run for your money is assured and he won't be far away at all.

4.35 Port Alfred 13-2
This is a speculative bet as since a very taking maiden win this horse has disappointed. It's also fair to say however that there is little quality in depth in this race and many are clearly regressive. I feel the favourite of James Fanshawe should be favourite but is being asked to carry another 5lb for a final win of last season and is looking high enough. 13-2 about a boy in blue could look big.
 
SaveTheHumans said:
Any strong opinions on the BET356 Mile at Sandown lads?
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Very keen on Montridge STH. I think 3-1 is very fair and he could end up shorter so I have taken it tonight Best odds guaranteed. I will be a little concerned if too much rain fell but other than that I think is good value as I do not think we have seen the best of him.
 
SaveTheHumans said:
Any strong opinions on the BET356 Mile at Sandown lads?
Click to expand...

After a fabulous season last year I think Top Notch Tonto has the best form but lack of a recent run and potentially pretty soft ground (been raining all evening) means he is definitely opposable. The outsider Fire Ship has a good chance in conditions he will relish but if I had to have a bet, and I don't, I would be on the old boy PENITENT who will be fit from a spin round Meydan and has conditions that will be right up his street!
 
Bluesky9 said:
3.15 Western Hymn 8-13
I have put this horse up as I feel he will drift a little and at odds just a little bigger would still represent value. He won with any amount in hand recently and is clearly a horse worth following. I think that the race he won will be found to be decent and I can see no opposition for him in this race whatsoever.
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I think he wins this Bluesky but sadly you wont see a drift, very strong in the market tonight and rightly so. He was in the "dark horses" for the season! Not so dark now!
The other one in the field who is on that list is IMPULSIVE MOMENT and he could very well be the one to chase him home!
 
off racing

oddy spent the last 2 days in your new homeland, first vist. nurberg, passou, visiting siemans factory and a hospital

whirl wind trip but i now why you there. never been before but would go back at a drop

very nice people very nice food """"""""

stay frosty
 
Cheers lads always good to hear the thoughts of the good minds on here. I am looking forward to that race but as your selections also vary I think perhaps a watching brief. Pretty much agree with all the sentiments. Hannon does seem to farm the race as Bobster stated so I was leaning towards him and Montiridge myself but conditions will play a big factor and a possible case can be made for a few with that in mind.
 
I still don't get why they put 'first run for new stable' under R.Hannon runners I'm sure things haven't changed that much!
 
SaveTheHumans said:
Cheers lads always good to hear the thoughts of the good minds on here. I am looking forward to that race but as your selections also vary I think perhaps a watching brief. Pretty much agree with all the sentiments. Hannon does seem to farm the race as Bobster stated so I was leaning towards him and Montiridge myself but conditions will play a big factor and a possible case can be made for a few with that in mind.
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The last two winners of the race taking part also in Trumpet Major and Penitent!
 
stick said:
The last two winners of the race taking part also in Trumpet Major and Penitent!
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Yep, Penitent must enter equations especially with a bit of dig you would imagine him appreciating it more than some of the market principles possibly although TNT has form on heavy ground too, it's whether he's tuned up for it or not.
 
Top Notch Tonto is a mudlark, will be very hard to beat tomorrow if its soft.

Nightmare of a race to be fair, Garswood and Penitent like it soft as well, and Montiridge 2 from 2 at Sandown.

Fire Ship 20/1 loves the soft ground and could get the run of the race, hell do for me.
 
Would not suprise to see Tullius run well- already had the one run in the Lincoln when was travelling very powerfully- will be more race fit than alot of the field and the Balding yard in good form. No bet race for me tho
 
Too late for me as my cash is already on Montridge but after reading everyone's considered views it would appear definitely a watching race. So far already we have Montridge, Penitent, Fire Ship and Tullius and very credible reasons why each could very well take the prize. I think I may put Montridge and penitent in a reverse forcast just to get even stupidly deeper into the race however.
 
Contributor 10/1 looks the bet to me in the Gordon Richards, Telescope and Sky Hunter dominating the betting but both are overrated, Telescope is a good horse but I think some people are expecting the next Harbinger and im not convinced he is that, Sky Hunter has been beating not much in france at heavy odds on, probably flattered by the run in the French Derby and that form doesnt look anything special anyway. Telescope should improve this year but Stoutes are way behind at the minute and they are saying he might need the run, weak in the betting tonight as well, hes probably the best horse in the race but id be wary diving in at a short price. Contributor was a smart 3yo last season and looks to have improved physically this year, he has a really nice cruising speed and I wouldnt be worried about soft ground, there doesnt seem to be much pace in the race and maybe that suits the ex french horse more than it suits Telescope and Conrtibutor but if he settles early I think he will run a big race and 10/1 looks the value.
 
I'm with Wooly on this one - Telescope. Small op last year for a chipped bone. Shouldn't be a problem and the simple fact MS has kept him in training as a 4yo is good enough for me. Should be far too good and at 13/8 still with WH. 80 points win

PS Having read Joe's comments I'm a little apprehensive but I'll stick with it as I think he will prove to be top notch (not Harbinger though)
 
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