I know in reality I will be lucky to get 55% of these forecasts right. Forecasting results is a mug's game. But just for fun: Birmingham D Blackburn Brighton H Blackpool Derby H Barnsley Millwall H Doncaster Sheff Wed H Charlton Yeovil H Huddersfield Brighton H Yeovil Birmingham H Leeds Charlton D Blackburn Doncaster D Reading Middlesb H Barnsley QPR H Millwall Wigan H Blackpool Birmingham D Wigan Charlton A Watford Barnsley A QPR Blackpool H Charlton Bolton H Birmingham Leicester H Doncaster Millwall D Bournemouth Yeovil D Middlesborough This would leave the final table like this: pts now/ extra pts/ final pts Birmingham 43 5 48 Millwall 43 4 47 Blackpool 42 3 45 Doncaster 43 1 44 Charlton 42 1 43 Yeovil 37 4 41 Barnsley 39 0 39 Charlton relegated! Would sticking with Powell to the end of the season have gained us the extra point we needed for safety. Who knows? But probably. Would keeping Kermorgant to the end of the season, spending the Stephens money on a decent player, and doing without all the other loans and signings (except Obika whom Powell would have signed too) have kept us safe? Definitely! But note a draw at Blackpool would see us safe in my scenario.
I hope you're wrong. I can see us getting one win from our last four - just don't ask me where it will come from.
Don't let me spoil the rest of your holiday weekend! There are thousands of possible permutations. Any one result different could change my prognosis. I agree one win for us should see us safe. I just think we are running out of players and legs. A lot may depend on the attitude of those teams with nothing to play for. If they slack off, or use the remaining games to experiment with formations or youngsters, then we might see unexpected results. Whether players want to go or stay, they will be in a better negotiating position if we stay up. But the same applies to our relegation rivals.
"Would sticking with Powell to the end of the season have gained us the extra point we needed for safety. Who knows? But probably." But Powell won six league games out of 30. So at that ratio we would have won three more League games and would have been relegated. Riga has won four with four games to go. It is all conjecture, and it is unable to prove. All I know is that when Powell left we were not in a good place. Riga has given us a lifeline. The bottom line is our squad of players is piss poor with only a handful good enough for the Championship.
Any new manager gives a team a lift as a rule hence the better results than Powell. Next season we will see what he's made of though if we go down I reckon he's out. Strange as it may seem if we do fail to stay up I'd stick with him. Don't want a period of chopping and changeing like we had after curbs left.
The idea seems to be gathering force that he's going to take over from Paul Hart, while Karel thingummy takes the reins.
I think it will be at Blackpool. From the outside in, it looks like absolute chaos up up there. Fans fighting players, protests, rookie manager, 2 wins in 20+ games, their goal threats been sold/out of the season etc.
I worry it will be a repeat of Palace in the playoffs last season. Manager walk-out mid-season. The team out of form. Jose Riga sneaks into the home dressing room before the match and...
Birmingham D Blackburn (wrong: away win) Brighton H Blackpool (wrong: draw) Derby H Barnsley (right) Millwall H Doncaster (wrong: draw) Sheff Wed H Charlton (wrong: away win) Yeovil H Huddersfield (wrong: away win) Not very good, am I? Good thing I don't play the bookies. This changes my final forecast to: Birmingham 47 Blackpool 46 Charlton 46 Doncaster 45 Millwall 45 Barnsley 39 Yeovil 38 With Millwall relegated on GD!
I would have been a lot happier had Brighton won (top goal from Dobbie though, and Dale even), still think we can get 3 points from the next 3 games and that should see us safe.
My forecasts have been so embarrassingly wrong (only 3 correct out of 13 matches so far) I should let this thread die, but I remain at my post to brave public humiliation: Brighton H Yeovil (right) Birmingham H Leeds (wrong: away win) Charlton D Blackburn (wrong: away win) Doncaster D Reading (wrong: away win) Middlesb H Barnsley (right) QPR H Millwall (wrong: draw) Wigan H Blackpool (wrong: away win) This changes my final forecast to: Blackpool 49 Millwall 46 Charlton 45 Birmingham 44 ........................ Doncaster 44 Barnsley 39 Yeovil 38 The only thing that this exercise demonstrates is that I should never play the bookies, but then I had already found that out the hard way. But this run in has thrown up a few surprise results to keep things interesting.
