My brain was tired from coding, so I thought I'd work through the permutations for our survival based on results of both us and our bottom-feeding rivals. Basically, it works out this way: Fulham 0 wins or <3 draws: no chance Fulham 1 win or 3 draws: Survival if Norwich gets 0 wins, 0 draws (0 pts) and Cardiff gets <= 1 win or <= 3 draws (3 pts) Fulham 1 win, 1 draw: Survival if Norwich gets 1 draw (1 pt) and Cardiff gets <=1 win + 1 draw (4 pts) Fulham 2 wins: Survival if Norwich gets <= 1 win or 3 draws (3 pts) and Cardiff gets <= 2 wins + 0 draws (6 pts) Fulham 2 wins, 1 draw: Survival if Norwich gets <=1 win + 1 draw (4pts) and Cardiff gets <=2 wins + 1 draw (7 pts) Fulham 3 wins: Survival if Norwich gets <=2 wins + 0 draws (6 pts) and Cardiff gets <=3 wins + 0 draws (9 pts) These scenarios leave Sunderland out of the equation to simplify things, but they do have two games and in hand and three winnable games at home against Swansea, West Brom and Cardiff. If Sunderland get max points from those games, we'd need a win and two draws (plus the correct results from Norwich and Cardiff). Obviously, too, if West Brom or Swansea fail to get points from their final games, that, too, presents us and our rivals with some opportunities. Simplifying things: We're in the drop zone, so we only survive if Norwich, West Brom or Swansea take our place. Given their horrible fixture list, my money is on Norwich to get dragged into the zone and relegated. The bigger problem, for me, is Cardiff. The only way we survive, because of our horrid goal diff, is if they get no more points from the remaining 4 games than we do. Their schedule of Stoke (h), Sunderland (a) , Newcastle (h) and Chelsea (h) has about the same level of difficulty as ours Spurs (a), Hull (h), Stoke (a) and Palace (h), so we need to perform well. I'm cautiously optimistic about our chances, but we need to perform better than we did Saturday when (IM0) we were outplayed for long stretches of the game and it took a heroic effort on the part of our 'keeper to get us points. A win or a point against Spurs would definately help put pressure on Cardiff, which plays Stoke at home Saturday.
DR the scenarios are so many that is difficult to tell... Even teams like Swansea, Villa etc are on the mix despite the fact they look safe!
I hadn't crunched any numbers, but came to the same conclusion as DR: Unless we do so badly in the last four games that we finish on a total which really doesn't deserve to survive, we ought to finish above Norwich. That will be enough as long as we stay ahead of Cardiff (who look like the threat) and Sunderland (less threatening). If we fall behind one of them, we need to overtake someone else. I've said all along that I think we'll need 37pts. We might get lucky with 36pts, but I suspect if that's our final total, goal difference will be our undoing.
Funnily enough you have missed out the one permutation that has been going around in my head and that is Fulham 1 win and 2 draws giving us 35 points This is because on form and fixtures two wins should keep us unless one of the other teams gets a shock result or two but could we stay up with 35 points, I can see Norwich maybe getting a couple of draws from there last four games which would give them only 34 points Right now I would like the Sunderland Cardiff game to be a draw but if Sunderland lose there next two games away to Man City and away to Chelsea then a Sunderland win against Cardiff May be good! In truth my head hurts every time I look at the table lets just beat spurs away and it will become a lot easier
Yup ... didn't think of that one. After Saturday, the permutations will all narrow and change ... if we can hang on this season, unload a bunch of deadwood and bring in some new talent, I'd say we've got a bright future under Magath, who's had amazing success with teams here in Deutschland.
One has to admire C Palace the way they have turned it around, what 2 months ago they were dead in the water, and looking if 14/15 season was to be a championship one. On paper their squad is no better than ours but they have the motivation sadly lacking in our squad when under the control of lacklustre Jol
If Sunderland had won, I think we'd have a new worry, but with that result and and one more game in hand, I don't think we need to worry too much about them. Even in the unlikely event Sunderland beat Chelsea Saturday, they're still only at 29 points, same as Cardiff. Cardiff is the team I'm worried about. If they get a good win against Stoke this weekend, and we get trounced by Spurs, the momentum will be theirs for the remaining three games. We'll be looking up the table at them; I'd rather stay on top and let them worry.
Got to agree on Sunderland. As to Cardiff, we should stay ahead of them; if we don't then we deserve to go down. We are still better than evens to stay up. COYW!
Hum ... it's going to take a while to rethink all this. The 'Villa and Cardiff results basically helped us, but who'd have though Sunderland would get 4 points in two games from Man City and Chelsea? If we win our remaining games, we should be OK, but I'm not sure two wins, or even two wins and a draw, will get the job done for us. Sunderland are suddenly playing well and with four games left, could upset the apple cart.
You don't have to beat us though, we both have to beat WBA & Norich. I think we both will, and those 2 join Cardiff in the hook.
Ive got a feeling Sunderland will survive. I can also see Norwich getting a result against Chelsea (call it a hunch!) and a point against United. That putsbthem on 36 with a better goal difference. West Brom will get another 4 points, finishing on 37 with a far better goal difference to us. The upshot ofnit all is that we need 3 wins from 3. Nothing less will do to survive. If we dont the its us, Norwich and Cardiff going down. That said, I'm still of the thinking that it would do us no harm to go down.
You look in serious trouble after the draw with Hull today, Palace are flying at the minute and Stoke are always tough at their place. We(SAFC) should beat Cardiff and Swansea and draw with WBA, draw at Man u and get to 37 points but I reckon 35 points and goal difference will be enough, Norwich will probably be playing Arsenal reserves in their last match, after Everton lost at Soton and Arsenal will most likely be 4 points clear going into that match, and the cup final a week later to worry about. Villa are going to survive yet again by the skin of their teeth.
Party's over ... we won't survive this year and, frankly, we don't deserve to. The game was in the bag and, yet again, our defense leaked in cheap goals.
We can survive, but we have to win the last two. There are possible sets of results that would let us stay up with only one more win, but I can't see it happening myself. If we do go down, DR is right: it's no more than we deserve over the course of the season. But it's not over yet - two wins will do it, I think. Let's see if we can pull that off.
A win for either Sunderland or Cardiff, and we are both down. At least that ought to be 6 points assured for Fulham next season.
Just a realist mate, and I know our place in the football hierarchy Just why Fulham have had this 'hold' over us for so long now, I am not sure. We used to have the same trouble with Coventry, although that was normally restricted only to away games.
Any other season and I would say that's it, the bottom three are down.But having written off Sunderland,Fulham and Cardiff at various points I am just wondering what will happen next.
