So I've just got back from a year of travelling to find Powell gone and us sitting just above relegation which is always pleasant. As a fan of useless stats and possible permutations, I've written the following point requirements which I'll keep updated on a game to game basis. I'll be using a few different point totals for different levels of "safety". Mathematical safety: Points required to stay above the closest threat getting 3 points per game. (Included for theoretical purposes) Likely safety: Points required to stay above the closest threat getting 1.5 points per game. (1.5 points per game is the upper limit of what a relegation threatened team can hope to achieve) Safe as a tourist visiting Baghdad: Points required to stay above the closest threat getting 1 point per game. (This is quite possibly enough but will be cutting it very close) All situations ignore other teams other than the one placed 22nd. Even if Barnsley win all eight games and we only win seven, I am well aware we will finish below them but still not get relegated. But too much effort to factor in dream scenarios. I'm also calculating to finish above them in points, not just tie. Saturday 29th Closest threat: Barnsley, P36. Pts35 Mathematical: Sixty points overall. Twenty five from remaining games with an average of 2.5 points per game. Likely: 48 overall. 13 from remaining games. Average of 1.3 points per game. Baghdad: 44 overall. 9 from remaining games. Average of 0.9 per game. Chances of survival: Seems pretty decent. Three wins, three draws and four losses would be more than enough in most situations.
A nice positive thread for a change, I like it, I'll settle for last game of the season Pritchard or Church with a 93rd min winner against Blackpool
I think your possible biggest threat is your backlog of fixtures and now having to play twice a week until the end of the season. On a positive note I see you have important fixtures against Yeovil and Barnsley with home advantage. Going to be a close one to call though.
Put it this way, if any team was offered at the start of the season an extra 20 games more than the opposition, there would be no doubt they'd take it. More games to play is always preferable to a more crowded fixture list.
That's personally how I see it. I also think we will be able to pick up another 9 points minimum from our remaining games - and I'll think that'll be enough this season. Or maybe that's me being more hopeful?
We will be safe Yeovil showed alot of fight recently, and then showed how they can be so soft too, we will scrape it home
I said on the Forest thread that Yeovil would finish above us. I forgot that Barnsley are destined never to be promoted or relegated from this division. They will have nothing to fear from their visit to the Valley. After a nuclear holocaust, the only things to remain will be the cockroaches and Barnsley FC's Championship status. If we can catch Birmingham, that would be good. Ryan, is there any chance of you including something like that too? ie. what it would take to catch the next team ahead of the bottom pack
Also, Ryan, if Leeds do go into admin, would it be possible to include them? I realise it's a lot of work, and thanks a lot for doing what you have done already
If Leeds go into admin and get a points deduction, would they not likely go into the bottom three anyway? 10 points would put them 20th, 15 points 23rd.
Leeds won't go into administration. A Club that size will always find yet another mug to stump up some money to save them for six months. My prediction for the bottom 3: 22. Photo finish us, or Barnsley 23. Millwall 24. Yeovil
But smart buyers will wait for them to go in to administration wont they? Unless you get a buyer who is willing to invest without having a bidding war.
They've gone into administration before, no reason to assume they won't again, especially while they remain in the Championship or lower
Well that changes things a bit. As promised I will be including the team above us using the following criteria Catching Schumacher in his prime: Team above us averages 1.5 points per game. This is low as anything higher and they probably aren't the team we're aiming to catch anymore. Catching Schumacher in his F1 return: Team above us averages 1 point per game. This is likely to be around a realistic target. Catching Schumacher on a skii slope: Team above us averages 0.75 points per game. Tuesday, 2nd April Closest threat: Barnsley, P38, 35pts. Closest target: Birmingham, P39, 40pts. Mathematical: 60 points required, 2.4 points per game. Likely: 48 points required, 1.1 points per game. Baghdad: 44 points required, 0.6 points per game. Prime: 50.5 points required, 1.4 points per game F1 return: 48 points required, 1.1 points per game Skii slope: 46.25 points required, 0.9 points per game Chances of survival: That was quite a nice boost. Around one point per game seems to be relatively safe. It should leave us a bit beyond the reach of Barnsley and on Birmingham's doorstep. Two more wins with a couple of draws is likely all we need...and we still have games vs Barnsley and Yeovil. Of course, Leeds going into admin on anything more than -10 could practically keep us safe as I do not see Millwall or Yeovil overtaking us at this point.
Saturday, 5th April Closest threat: Barnsley, P39, 36pts. Closest target: Birmingham, P40, 42pts. Mathematical: 58 points required, 2.5 points per game. Likely: 47 points required, 1.1 points per game. Baghdad: 44 points required, 0.75 points per game. Prime: 52 points required, 1.75 points per game F1 return: 49 points required, 1.4 points per game Skii slope: 47 points required, 1.1 points per game Chances of survival: Things just turned ugly relatively fast. We will have to get 1.1 point per game to have any real chance of catching up to the team above us, even if said team only averages 0.75 points per game. This all pretty much wishful thinking now, so outside of miracles the focus has to pretty much stick on staying above the teams below us. Although the points per game required have actually got lower in that regard, that's highly misleading as now Yeovil and Millwall are within touching distance of us. The more teams that are close to overtaking us, the higher the chance that one of them gets some good luck/overperforms and overtakes us. Well, it goes without saying how important are upcoming games against yeovil and barnsley are. Win both of them and we're laughing, lose both and we're probably going down.
Still a few twists and turns to go. Our last-gasp penalty miss on Tuesday may be crucial to the final positions.
