OK this one isn't necessarily being regarded as a six pointer but I would argue that it is: It's the game in hand for both sides and Hull (33points) and West Ham (31points) Everyone is focusing on our last four,but let's compare the final seven for the three sides.I have rated each game for degree of difficulty out of ten.Scores allow for home advantage/away disadvantage. West Ham Sunderland (A) 7 Liverpool (H) 8 Arsenal (A) 8 Palace (H) 6 WBA (A) 7 Spurs (H) 7 Citeh (A) 10 Total 53 Hull Stoke (A) 8 Swansea (H) 6 Arsenal (H) 7 Fulham (A) 6 Villa (A) 7 United (A) 9 Everton (H) 7 Total 50 Norwich Swansea (A) 7 WBA (H) 5 Fulham (A) 6 Liverpool (H) 8 Man U (A) 9 Chelsea (A) 10 Arsenal (H) 7 Total 52
You laughingly called my forecasts on your relegation thread 'guesswork' and then come up with this! Are you suggesting that these three sides are contesting the final relegation slot? I doubt it as there are far more serious contenders where this exercise may be more pertinent. Please explain!
My point here was that both clubs involved in tonight's match have at least as difficult final seven as us.In no way am I suggesting that they are favourites for the drop but neither are we.I just questioned your reasons for giving us just three points from seven whilst other teams get seven or more.It just seemed unduly pessimistic.If Swansea are capable of getting a point at Arsenal then why write off our chances with the kind of defensive home record we have of late? Don't forget we held Citeh (comfortably) and kept a clean sheet.We even nearly nicked it at the end
Well I actually gave us 3/4 points with the 3 coming from West Brom at home. The question really is where does the extra points come from. I agree that we will get some more points from somewhere but I don't believe there is another obvious game where you would ink in a definite return, my suggestion was probably Arsenal at home. I would not bet on getting anything at Fulham simply because we never do - but we should really (on paper). This game at Swansea is quite interesting and anything gained would help enormously.
For what it's worth (and probably showing just how subjective this is), I've just had a go and I think we have the toughest set of fixtures out of the three (significantly tougher than Hull's too): West Ham Sunderland (A) 6 Liverpool (H) 9 Arsenal (A) 8 Palace (H) 5 WBA (A) 6 Spurs (H) 7 Citeh (A) 10 Total 51 Hull Stoke (A) 6.5 Swansea (H) 6.5 Arsenal (H) 7.5 Fulham (A) 6 Villa (A) 6.5 Man U (A) 7 Everton (H) 7.5 Total 47.5 Norwich Swansea (A) 7 WBA (H) 5.5 Fulham (A) 6 Liverpool (H) 9 Man U (A) 7 Chelsea (A) 10 Arsenal (H) 7.5 Total 52 EDIT: I've done Swansea's too (again, not as tough as ours): Swansea Norwich (H) 6 Hull (A) 6.5 Chelsea (H) 9.5 Newcastle (A) 7 Villa (H) 6 Southampton (H) 7 Sunderland (A) 6 Total 48
as we know anyone can get points of anyone near the end of the season, it often depends on what teams have to play for so league position goes out of the window. WBA home may be harder than Man Utd away. Ideally you'd want to play teams like Newcastle, Saints, Stoke, Villa etc, who have little to play for Likewise for us, hopefully arsenal will pull away a little from Spurs and Everton (who are on form) so they'll have fourth secured when we play them
I've been thinking for a while that our fixture list helps us a bit. We have three potentially winnable games before we meet the big boys allowing us to play with some confidence and momentum. It would be really frustrating if we were going to chelsea this weekend instead after our good win at the weekend and we would have far less confidence going to swansea the week after. People have also basically been talking like our season ends with the final whistle at craven cottage but I think we're definitely gonna be good for some points in those last four games. Could well have an effect on the total race
I'd tend to agree with your scores, JK, apart from a few: I don't think there's any way that Arsenal away can be considered easier than Liverpool at home! Yesterday was the exception that proves the rule - Arsenal really should have won last night Going to the Britannia is very difficult, especially with the form Stoke are in. Certainly much harder than going to Villa park (unless you're Norwich...) or playing Swansea at home. Going to Hull and Newcastle should also be considered a tougher match, IMO
I actually think it´s an absolute fallacy to assume that Liverpool, Man U, Chelsea, and Arsenal will be any tougher than if we had, say, C. Palace, Fulham, W. Brom and Sunderland, especially if any of those 4 knew that a win would keep them up. Teams at the top are fighting for points, yes, but don´t forget, those at the bottom are fighting for much more, their lives. I´ve quite been looking forward to our run-in to be honest, especially if by the time we meet Liverpool, we´ve managed to pick up 37 or 38 points, which we could do. I´d say we´re likely to lose to Suarez and Chelsea, but we should certainly have a chance of picking up something against the other two, United have got nothing to play for except Champions League, and they may not have that after the next round, while by the time we meet Arsenal, things at the top will probably be sorted
Haha! I understand your nitpicking Rob, and I've actually been doing some Excel analysis (slow day in the office today) in the meantime! Basically I assigned a difficulty rating (more consistent now than my previous attempts above) based on league position and form (although I couldn't/didn't factor in things like "Stoke is a very difficult place to go", or "Norwich never win at Fulham"), then calculated the following teams' 'run-in difficulty rating' based on their remaining fixtures. See below: Fulham ----- 6.500 Hull -------- 6.750 Cardiff ----- 6.786 WBA ------- 6.813 Swansea --- 6.857 West Ham -- 7.188 Norwich ---- 7.429 Palace ----- 7.438 Sunderland - 7.500 So, judging by my ratings, Sunderland have the most difficult run-in and Fulham have the easiest. Obviously not too much should be read into this as it is still based on my relatively subjective ratings for fixtures. I just found it intriguing to calculate, and I'm fully aware there could be all sorts of other things to take into account. EDIT: and yes, I've included all remaining fixtures - so for example, all of Sunderland's 10 remaining games are included in calculating the rating (tonight's fixtures are included). FURTHER EDIT: to clarify, I did assume that away games are more difficult than home games.
I think your methodology is correct JK.And it is reassuring that two teams below us have tougher fixtures.like you I don't rate the "We never beat Fulham" approach.If we went down that route we would probably be very confident about Swansea.
In other news, (in the current absence of the 'BBC predictor'), I did this http://www.the-mustard.com/predictor_traditional.html# ...and got this: 1- Man City--------89 2- Chelsea---------86 3- Liverpool--------85 4- Arsenal---------77 5- Everton--------75 6- Tottenham-----66 7- Man Utd--------63 8- Southampton---55 9- Newcastle------51 10- Stoke---------49 11- Swansea------41 12- Aston Villa-----41 13- West Ham-----40 14- Norwich-------37 15- Hull City-------36 16- West Brom----32 17- C Palace------32 18- Sunderland----31 19- Cardiff--------31 20- Fulham--------27
JK - you've we won't lose at Fulham as a guess - controversial? in all seriousness i'd hope we get a result there. they are by no means cut adrift
Went for a win against West Brom, and yes you're right, somewhat controversially I went for a draw at Fulham and another point against Arsenal on the last day. Even without those two points though, we'd still be safe.
As I'm in London these days, I may well go too. I went to the Cup game there this season which turned out to be very enjoyable in the end!
I watched a stream of it and we were totally shocking and clueless and fully deserved to lose 3 - 0. That was when I ceased sitting on the fence over Hughton's tenure at the club. How you found it "very enjoyable" will remain a mystery - unless you're a masochist?
Haha! I had a complete meltdown there and was mixing up the Watford game with the Fulham game (I went to both)! My apologies.
No, don't apologise - you've at least saved me from phoning the men in white coats to take you back to your rubber room!!
