Traditionally there is a team who keep out of the scrap for most of the season but find themselves dragged into the relegation zone in the last month. I can't see this season being settled early on and I'm hoping it quickly becomes a two horse race, if the club in 4th space can put as much distance between them and the 5th and 6th even better. If we play like we did on Saturday for the remainder of the season we should be safe but we need to be more consistent, we need to sort out our away form. If we can get either Hooper or RVW scoring then that will be a massive help.
Perfect weekend for me, villa getting thumped at home as well. By Stoke who haven't won away since August!
I'm banking on Hull still. Yep that would be a huge benefit to have Arsenal with nothing to play for.
They'd need to nose dive badly, Hull seem to be quite high on confidence at the moment. Liverpool and Chelsea are going to be the nightmare games, especially since Man City have about three games in hand both those clubs are going to go out there until they have those top spots locked down. I'm thinking Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal at the moment in that order, Liverpool seem be playing for prides sake and they want to prove people wrong for that reason they worry me a lot more then Chelsea.
dont ak me why but i still think West Ham are looking dodgy.I look at them and think how the hell are they not in the bottom 3. One word for me......Consistency.That is all wv need and we will be fine.
I know what you mean they seem extremely ineffective at times and a bit one dimensional. It could be three of eight teams at the moment, each team has a couple of major sticking points which are capable of messing things up.
Palace don't look to have the goals to stay up 1 goal in their last 5 games, their set up pretty well at the back, as your'd expect from Pulis but they're who i reckon will take the 3rd spot. Also, Palace never stay up.
They've had very mixed performances though. Strong at home, but look at their remaining fixtures - I'd say they desperately need points away in the next two matches and wins at Cardiff and Sunderland have somewhat disguised what remains very poor away form. I think they could be in trouble with congested fixtures from the Cup run too.
I can. I think you're probably right, because I see the bottom three most likely being composed of three of the current bottom four. But Northamts said that there is often a team that has a collapse. If that's the case, I was just saying that for me, Hull is the most likely based on their fixture list - look at it. I think we'll finish ahead of Hull at any rate.
In fact the only match where I would comfortably predict a draw or better for Hull would be their home match against Swans. And even then that's in the balance - we should comfortably have beaten Hull away. I can easily see Hull only getting three more points by the end of the season. As I said, the FA cup could be a problem too with extra matches for tired players. It may well be that they get points against Everton in the last match to secure safety. Their goal difference is the best bit for them
That's very possible. Though big Sam is good in those sorts of games. If they do we could see a Wham collapse (already happening?). Even with a draw at West Ham, I still can't see them getting more than five points from their last few fixtures - get that and they'll be safe, but fall short anywhere and they could be in real trouble. EDIT: ouch, just looked at West Ham's remaining fixtures as I thought they might have got through their last few tough matches in these three games - they HAVE to get a win against Hull I'd say. Otherwise they'll be relying on beating Palace and picking up points against big teams
Well they were my choice for the outsider based on those fixtures.Everyone has focused on our tough run in but there are other teams in just the same position.
Completely agree. If I'd been able to choose when to play the top four teams in our last eight matches, I'd probably choose them to be at the end. Bird in the hand and all that. And the possibility of onthebeachitis.
SportsClubStats now reckon we have a 10% chance of relegation, and a 0% chance of coming bottom, which is nice. They seem to predict a 16th place finish, which I'd take. Looking at the other clubs chances, West Ham apparently have a 1% chance of relegation, with Hull, Stoke and Villa now deemed 100% safe. They've got Palace to take the final relegation spot, with Sunderland not much better off. As to the rest of our season, they reckon just 2 points would make us as good as 50:50 to survive. 3 more points and we're down to 30% chance of relegation, 4 points = 10% chance of going down, and if we make 37 points just a 3% chance of relegation. For any visitors of the blue-and-white persuasion, it reckons you have a 2.6% chance of promotion, although a 10% chance of making the play-offs. 70 points gives you a slightly more than negligible chance of making the play-offs, whilst making 74 makes it more likely than not apparently. That's 6 wins and a draw or 5 wins, 4 draws.
Forgive me for getting in an early brag on this but those stats seem to point strongly towards a 36/7 safety line that I predicted back in October on my games/points ratio theory. My only criticism of the stats is I think West Ham have consistently been rated safer that they actually are.With their remaining fixtures it will be interesting to se how they fare if Hull beat them mid week.
I had my suspicions that Hull were still far from safe and might still get sucked in as recently as last month, but they've racked up some good wins with some excellent performances since then and I'm with Cruyffy and Northants in saying there is no chance they'll go down, they are as safe as houses. Their goal difference is worth another point, not that it will come down to that, I can see them getting a result at Upton Park this week. They've had an absolutely fantastic season, Brucey has made some inspired signings this year and they fully deserve to maintain their top flight status, top marks No signing better than that of Curtis Davies in the summer, he has been immense and I just wish Hootun had brought him to Carrow Road with him, bit surprised that he didn't to be fair, he would have been a fantastic captain. It won't happen because he plays for one of the little teams, but I can't think of many better English centre-halves who have been more consistent all season than Davies and in my opinion he should definitely be in contention for a place in the flight to Rio. Sunderland on Saturday were comfortably the worst team I have seen all season, they were absolutely shocking and didn't look up for it at all. I really fear for them, if they turn up like that at Anfield this week it could end up in double-figures for the Scousers, and any kind of hiding would surely be a further nail into their relegation coffin. Baggies, Swansea and Palace also look to be in freefall, as well as Cardiff and Fulham who must be virtually done and dusted by now.
After our must win win, I have for the first time done my projection analysis for the run-in. To be honest I have been buoyant all weekend following a wonderful performance and deserved victory and got to work with venom on this mathematical exercise. The results made me stall because it put into context how vulnerable we are. Apart from beating West Brom at home my next likely positive result for us is Arsenal at home on the last day because away from CR we are awful. If this does not change I fear for us massively. For the record I have the following West Brom 35 Swansea 35 Sunderland 35 C. Palace 34 Fulham 33 Cardiff 32 ............and Norwich 35/36
