The Grand National Elimination Process

I'm finding it extremely difficult this year to be confident about a long list, let alone a short list. I wondered if it might be useful if we could start eliminating some and hopefully chop the field down somewhat. So if you can think of any horse that "can't" win please add it below with reasons.

The Form Tool



The main Grand National Index

 

TIDAL BAY - too old at thirteen to win this and been unsuccessful over the course before. He will take one look at the fences and say **** that I am off for my retirement!

 

Triolo Dalene and Kruzhlinin. Can't have a 7yo winning over this distance and these fences
Swing Bill has less chance than Tidal Bay at 13 years old
Sunnyhillboy. Very reluctantly dismissed as he is a favourite of mine. Has been given a great chance by the handicapper but was tailed off before unseating rider last year. I will still be cheering him if he's in with a chance but at 11 he's probably missed his chance.
Prince De Beauchene. Doesn't look good enough to me and has now hit 11.
Alfie Sherrin. Another 11yo. Can't fancy 11yos unless they are top notch. And surely the best 11yo in the field is Sunnyhillboy.

So, basically, that' narrowed it down to 8, 9 and 10yos. Now onto the difficult bit ..............................

 

put a line through all the inexperienced chasers

Rocky Creek
Godsmejudge
Colbert Station
Goulanes
Hawkes Point
Mountainous
Our Father
Vesper Bell
Rose Of The Moon
Bog Warrior

you need to be streetwise round Aintree

 

Monbeg Dude should be 20/1 to complete. Poor jumper (even if the fences are less of a test) and style of running will scupper him. He might have a royal olympian teaching him how to jump but on the evidence of his recent outing at Doncaster he's not learnt much. He may have one of the best jockeys assisting him too but I can't have exaggerated waiting tactics in the Grand National. Strike him off the list folks.

 

That's 2 of my shortlist gone stick.

Using that form tool I keep seeing horses that I didn't even realise were running.

One that keeps popping out is Lost Glory. Must take a look at this one (hadn't even considered it).

 

Well, after a very quick look I reckon that one can be ruled out. All I see is tailed off, blundered, and a poor Aintree record. Gone

 

Another one I hadn't considered that keeps popping up with that form tool is Mr Moonshine. Having looked at his form, he looks to have a great chance so won't be ruling him out just yet.

 

Good recent Aintree form but was tailed off and pu last year. Not a good sign. Gone.

 

Surely you just need to be a hurdler these days? I actually think that you might need to be less experienced around Aintree these days, I think you need a horse who might take a liberty/disdain to the fences to be able to take distance out of horses at the fences. My only worry about T43 is that he is a bit careful at times (2nd last fence last season iirc). I like Rocky Creek more everytime I look at the form.

 

I was going through some 'experts" opinions on the race. One guy mentioned Soll. He said that he was a massive type who went in last year as an inexperienced animal. So I had a look at last years race, he ran a really nice race for a long way before they got the better of him. He finished 7th. Now as a 9 year old and at about 50-1 he might have an outsider's shout. His form going in this year doesn't seem quite as good though. It might be worth a look at the vid. He's in dark blue. He got back early, but worked his way up to race just off the pace.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVU-pGI20bs

 

Ran like a dog ar Sandown despite strong market support!

 

we know why though!!

 

Yeah.....you backed it LOL

 

Soll -that's Paul Blockley's runner isn't it -under his partners name? Got the right profile and as you say had a good sighter last year -

 

When you look at the key trends for this race it's regularly stated that you need something that has won a chase over £17k in value. However you have to go back to Bindaree in 2002 to find the winner with such 'poor' previous success. Since then every winner had previously won something worth a minimum of 31k. Additionally these successes had all come in double figure fields. I know trends aren't everyone's cup of tea but that's pretty strong in my opinion. If trends are your thing then you can rule out:
Hunt Ball, Roi De Mee (bit harsh but his big success came in a 6 runner affair), Rocky Creek, Bog Warrior, Mossey Joe, Walkon, Wayward Prince, Mr Moonshine, Across the Bay, Buckers Bridge, Our Father, Vintage Star, Hawkes Point, Kruzhlinin, Pineau De Re, Golan Way, Twirling Magnet, Vesper Bell, Shakalakaboomboom, Alvarado, Lost Glory, Rose of the Moon, One in Milan, Goonyella, Swing Bill, Goonyella and Soll. That's 27 of the top 50.
Not gone down further than that as I doubt anything else will get in.

 

Winner of a plus 31 thousand pound race, right age and ran a nice race in it last year. "Get in there Soll you good thing."

 

These are the obvious ones to discount for me....

Tidal Bay - 13 years old. Surely too old and didnt win the welsh National so why would he win this? I can see him finishing in the first 6 home though...
Hunt Ball - carry too much weight and stamina a big question mark for this one.
Triolo D'Alene - is a 7 year old so discount
Katenko - not in the same form this year and just cant see him keeping up with the pace.
Colbert Station - unseated last year and according to McCoy didnt settle and got a bit upset in the preliminaries. That doesnt bode well as handling the preliminaries is paert and parcel of it.
Battle group - wouldnt want to back a horse who has refused! No Sirrreeeeeeee!
Prince de Beauchene - surely missed the boat. was well fancied though in previous years but I reckon his chance has gone.
Burton Port - looks a shadow of his former self and wont be good enough
Mountaineous - needs it soft and it wont be so he wont win if he even lines up
Kruzhlinin - again a 7 year old so no chance
Twirling Magnet - err no thanks - wont be good enough.

I cant totally dismiss the others to line up .. They all have a squeak - just look at the shock winner last year!

 

I see that in the last 17 years only 3 GN winners had run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival and that stat makes even worse reading for those who fancy one who ran a couple of weeks ago in Gloucestershire over the conventional fences as 2 of those 3 winners had come from either a hurdles heat (Don’t Push It) or the X-Country (Silver Birch).

Quite damning stat that – only once in the last 17 renewals has a GN winner run at the previous months Cheltenham Festival over conventional fences.

 

I would be against MONBEG DUDE for the simple fact that this will be his first run at Aintree