Definitely longest odds. I have been tracking them as I'm trying to hedge the compilation of bets I made against my Villa mate, which have been looking dodgy!
Everybody mentions our last four but Sunderland Have six of the top seven left Palace can't score and Have some tough games left Feeling more positive tonight
it's still touch and go. I think we need at least 4 points from the next two. My hope is Arsenal are safe in 4th and make the cup final
Until today I had felt that Palace would probably go and sunderland would hold on by the skin of their teeth, which would be impressive given their start, their games in hand look hard but they have winnable home games before the end of the season. I think now that the fight is between Sunderland, Palace and WBA for that third spot and it is pretty impossible to call.
Last week I said Stoke had taken themselves out of contention for relegation and today I think that Hull have too by moving on to 33 points.Theoretically we are still in the mix,but only just.Fulham and Cardiff both need four wins from seven games to make 36 and 37 points respectively.I am pretty certain they wont do it.Sunderland still have ten games starting with Liverpool mid week.They need three wins and three draws or four wins to make 37.The other candidates Palace,West Brom and Swansea all have fewer games remaining.Its difficult to see outside the bottom six now.
I'd say it very unlikely anyone above us goes down and I feel we're now on the cusp of feeling safe. It really couldn't have been a better weekend for us. I can't see the swans going down although under Monk they may well run close hopefully they give us some help next week. Gun to my head I'd say Fulham, Cardiff and Palace. When it comes to it I don't think palace has a good enough squad.
Totally agree Kent. There tital challenge is all but over & if the they are in the cup final the following week wenger will be resting players & others won't be going in full throttle for fear of injury or suspension. That's the one for me where we might get e result.
Surprising season for you Phil.How much effect has the Europa had? I suppose missing Michu hasn't helped.I think Swansea have enough though to stay up.Your neighbours upcoming fixtures against WBA and Palace will have some say.I can't see Sunderland getting above you.You wanting Cardiiff to win though?Must Be a bit like us wanting The Binners to win and I suppose if they won both they would be on 31 and in with a shout.
Sunderland's games in hand have to be their hope, but on yesterday's performance I can't see them getting many points away from home against Liverpool, Spurs, ManCity, Chelsea and ManUtd. That leaves 5 games at home against West Ham, Everton, Cardiff, WBA and Swansea. The last 3 games are winnable and possibly a point or two from the others but that would leave a maximum of say 36 points at the expence of Cardiff, WBA and Swansea also down at the bottom. The number of games between bottom teams will limit the opportunities for points right across the bottom 6 teams, which will help us. A draw against Swansea and a win against WBA would be enough for us to be confident of survival with 36 points and 5 games left to pick up some odd points.
I just hope we can beat our Fulham hoodoo this time, they are so poor, we would nail their fete and ours in just one game!
I think if we beat WBA, and take a point or more from the two away games, we should be fairly safe. Fulham are 8 points behind us with 7 remaining, although Everton and Spurs are their only really tricky fixtures left. They've only taken 5 points from their last 10 games though, so to go from 0.5 ppg to 2 ppg in order to overtake us is quite the ask. Cardiff again have some reasonable fixtures, perhaps 6 they could potentially take something from, but only two of them are at home. Cardiff have the worst away record in the league (6 points from 15 games). They have to beat Stoke and Palace at home or they're done for. Sunderland I thought stood a chance of surviving until yesterday, they just looked hopeless. 10 games left, but away days at Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea, Man City and United aren't great fixtures. Final 3 fixtures are home to WBA, Cardiff and Swansea though, so their fate won't be sealed until late on. Add in to that Swansea's recent form, Palace appear to have run out of steam and WBA with just one win in 10, I think the teams below us will take enough points off each other for what could be a record low number of points needed to survive.
I think that is the key and also why it's so much better to have the points on the board rather than games in hand.
I just think Cardiff and Fulham have left it too late.For teams with six and seven wins respectively it's a massive ask to take twelve or thirteen points from their last seven.It requires the kind of form possessed only by those clubs in contention for Champions League qualification.We had a good game yesterday admittedly but for long spells,especially in the first half Sunderland looked out of it.At one point we had 81% possession.As much as I hate to say it because I like Sunderland their fixtures just look too tough to take much more than a point a game.So the only other possibility is a truly massive collapse by one of the clubs between us and seventeenth.
Indeed it has, too many battles on too many fronts, and one of our worst injury seasons has all conspired to clobber us, but our performances are improving, and I see us getting at least 3 wins from our final 8 games, which should be enough to keep us up!................
