please log in to view this image If you're not interested look away. This is what looking at average points per game gained over the number games played versus the same method applied over games remaining. It's not an exact science, but you tend to find it is very difficult to massive change the points per game total. So, based on that I have West Brom, Cardiff and Fulham going down.
3 wins for sure will keep us safe. But i hope for 10th spot. As things stand Wba look like joining Cardiff and Fulham in the championship. imo.
I respect your views but I will throw this one in. Some teams have much harder games (norwich the last 4 games) than others. therefore, you would expect their averages to drop. I will counter-act that by saying "how do you determine a hard game, they are all hard in my opinion" eg the palace games we dominated but yet still lost. Anyway, your system is far superior than that one yesterday about winnable games FFS. At least you don't have two teams winning the same match. I think I could have accepted what he was trying to say until he put a league table up.
This just averages their points per game, assume most will have hard games already included in games already played, s it will take something spectacular to change current fortunes of the bottom 5 or 6.
I agree, but there is still 20-25% of the season to go. That is a lot of games and those averages will could mean diddly squat in the remaining games.
As we've already played 3/4 of the season, those averages give a fair representation of realistic totals - given all clubs have played each other at least once. It would need a huge shift in fortunes and performances, which I can't see happening. It is interesting to see all 5 of the bottom clubs changed managers during this season.
I take your point about performances. However, players managers and clubs are all under pressure to stay up. Therefore, clubs can suddenly find that extra something when it is needed. EG Fulham with Bullard a few years back. Seemingly, they were dead but won 4 out of the last 5. Likewise, clubs can collapse under the pressure eg Fulham this year (3 managers is it now)
If you just multiply all the remaining games by the average number of points everybody stays in the positions that they are now. Apart from the teams with games in hand obviously. It's not the best system, it's not really even a system.
I see West Brom and Fulham going down, and either Cardiff or Sunderland joining them. Norwich won't be gathering many points from here on out, IMO, but I think they'll have enough to survive.
No they don't. Sunderland who are currently in the bottom 3 aren't in the bottom 3 come the end of the season
