Cheltenham Day 4 Daily Racing Thread

Briar Hill lads. Briar Hill.

The price is now frankly ludicrous and as much as I think he'll win it is very much a case of will he stay? If he stays he'll win. If he doesn't I'll be cursing him for a long time!

Away from the Albert Bartlett I've backed Bobs Worth at 13/8 which I think is massive. Silviniaco Conti is decent but this fella will power up the hill and I really fancy him to do the double.

Minellaforu has been a pet project of mine all season and I've taken the 10/1 in the County. I put him up every start of the season. LTO he ran in a grade 2 under a ridiculously weak ride. Some could even say that the handbrake was on. 10/1 tomorrow. He's going to be punted (I think) and if he handles the track I can see him challenging for the win.

Forgot - Caid Du Berlais in the 4.40. Nicholls said this has a great chance. I got 25/1. He backed it at 33/1. It's fav now. Bonkers!

What does everyone else think?

 

For whatever reason i seem to do best on day 4 so hoping it continues tomorrow.

1.30 - Rutherglen / Royal Irish Hussar - never seen a horse so green yet win so easily than Rutherglen
2.05 - Lac Fontana - Smart course form and still way ahead of the handicapper in my opinion
2.40 - Briar Hill / Deputy Dan
3.20 - Bobs Worth
4.00 - Harbour Court
4.40 - Caid Du Berlais - Nicholls won it last year he was been campaigned over chases but that is perhaps to protect his hurdle rating. He ran Jezki to 3 1/2 lengths in November.
5.15 - Next Sensation / Anquetta

Got doubles and a treble on Briar Hill, Bobs Worth and Harbour Court

 

1.30 TIGER ROLL


Ran a blinder on first start for Gordon Elliot and I think there is a real chance of turning around the form on Guitar Pete, especially on the stiffer track. Has improvement to come- just his 3rd start over hurdles. Interesting type.

2.40 MOSSPARK 20/1

Briar Hill and Kings Palace rightly head the market but they are cornering it to leave value elsewhere. Mosspark has doner nothing wrong over hurdles, and looks like it needs this 3m trip. To have won by forging clear over inadequate trips is good and a better clip in this can see him in an even better light to mount a surprise challenge.


3.20 LAST INSTALMENT

If he runs, he wins in my opinion. Haven't seen anything jump like that since Denman.


In the Grand Annual, I have no idea how they have managed to get Ned Buntline a mark of 138- he should sluice in under a motionless Paul Carberry but Noel Meades form is HORRIFIC and I will play small stakes only.

 

Easily my worst ever festival. No w nners or even places but, in fairness, have only had small bets so losses have not been big. As a consequence though it's very small fun bets as the order of tomorrow on a few outsiders in the handicaps rather than try to claw it back as in years gone by!

County hurdle - Lac Fontana - backed him last three times so won't desert now.
Martin Pipe - Art professor has come back into a bit of form, has a win at the course and the ground shouldn't be an issue
Grand Annual - Changing of the guard. I already had this ante post - and the performance of Pineau de Re would inicate that the yard is ready to be competitive for these big handicaps

Of the other races it's impossible to see past briar hill, I can't pick between bobs Worth and Silvinacco on sentiment as much as anything else but if pushed would got for Bob to get his double. In the Triumph Rutherglemn looks interesting having not been beaten yet even if it is a big step up in company.

Anyway - it's been good on here as always and hope you all have a successful day tomorrow.

 

Nicholls said the same about Sam winner last year.yard hasn't been in form this week so I would look else where

 

RE: Last Instalment:

We'll have a look at the ground on Friday morning. As long as the ground is safe we'll run. It depends on the ground," added O'Leary.

"He's nine. It's unlikely he'll survive another season. Any day he runs is probably a bonus at this stage.

"Philip's done a remarkable job to get him back this year but he's been out of training for two years and each of his two front two legs have suffered tendon problems.

"If the ground isn't safe, we won't risk him because the horse has two glass legs, so safety first."


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Interesting that they have considered that this might be the last chance saloon for him because of his fragility.

Hopefully there is some good to soft in the description tomorrow to keep it on the safe side.

 

My hedging in the AB frankly looks ridiculous when I write it down but after my smoking burnt fingers on Annie Power I'm glad I'm fence sitting

Briar Hill e/w @ 4/1 ante-post.
Quevega / Kings Palace 8.5/1 double.

I know it's not really helpful is it?! BUT I definitely think it's much, much closer to being 50/50 than the current odds suggest. KP impressed me massively. The Pipes are flying. I think it's heavily down to the ride Scu gives him. He'll want to go hard to get Briar Hill at it behind but too hard and he may lack enough if Briar Hill can stay strongly up the hill which I've little doubt he will. A battle of jockeys???

The splinters in my arse are fecking great

Gold Cup:
Quevega / Bobs Worth ante-post double 10/1. Not hedging here. Happy that the ground won't suit Silvi, or Last Installment who won't run I believe.
Lord Windermere 25/1 ante-post. Had given up hope on this but see J Culloty has had a winner today. I'd be pleasantly surprised by this one.

Calipto in Triumph. Nicholls horses form is suspect for sure but the forms in the book.

 

Can't see Bobs Worth winning purely because only real great horses regain gold cups and he's a good horse but not a great horse. Last Instalment all the way for me, although wouldn't surprise me if there was a shock winner like Teaforthree

 

When he wins tomorrow will we be calling him a great horse then?

 

I was close to the rail at Leopardstown for his Lexus win and I've never seen a horse finish up that straight like him it was spine tingling on the day and after that I was convinced he will win the GC again this year and I really hope he does. Not a flashy horse but he look's an absolute battler with a heart as big as they come.

 

It's hard not to like little Bob

Whether he is a 'great' horse if he wins tomorrow I'd have to give him that. Two festival championship races puts him alongside Hurricane Fly, Kauto Star and Moscow Flyer (off the top of my head) and what a little bunch they are

He HAS to do it tomorrow though!

 

The only horse we've agreed on all Festival?

 

I wouldn't consider Best Mate a "real great" and he won three CGC's.

He had the fortune to be around when there weren't a great bunch of staying 'chasers in training.

The form of his third Gold Cup win,when he scraped home from SR and HP,is frankly rank...BW already has a higher OR than he ever achieved.

Better put some protective headgear on!

 

Can someone help me understand the support for Briar Hill? He's been backed like he's unbeatable but i've just watched a couple of his races from this season and his jumping doesn't look great and has made hard work of beating what shold of been vastly inferior rivals. Heard one of the Mullins camp say he doesn't do anything too flashy at home so what am i missing?

 

Plenty of 2/1 around for BW.

 

Only because you don't have a cuddy worth a mention LOL

 

Tomorrow is a real make or break day, I like horses in nearly every race (probably not the Foxhunters). After saving my day today with Roberto Goldback, its all to play for on the final day.

Go on the Bob!!

 

William Hill going 4/1 BOBS WORTH for a tenner only sadly but too good to miss. From 10am tomorrow!

 

Apparently so.

 

England's T20 team are woeful.