Cheltenham 2014 Day One Daily Thread - Tuesday 11th March

I too like Fruity O'Rooney for the 2:40. Good previous record in the race/course form. Also like the look of Alfie Sherrin too though. McCoy onboard, good course form, previous winner of this race, in cheekpieces. A low-key hurdle race is it's sole start this season. Cheekpieces reapplied for tomorrow. I sense a McManus plot? I reckon this will get lumped on over night and the 8's about it will disappear.

 

1.30 Irving
2.05 Rock on Ruby
2.40 Wrong Turn
3.20 My Tent or Yours
4.00 Quevega
4.40 Suntiep
5.15 Persian Snow

 

Evan Williams has just two runners tomorrow, Buywise and King Massini so i've had a small ew double

 

Irving
Rock On Ruby
Golden Chieftain ew
The New One
Highland Retreat ew
Foxrock
Pendra (a stone better than anything else in the yard and getting weight off two of them here LOL)

Bob is looking for five, I am looking for eight!!!!

 

Good luck everyone

especially those of you backing the same ones as me!

 

A stone better than your mare stick?

 

I am struggling to comprehend the price of The New one In the Champion.

Hurricane Fly
Won this in 2011 and 2013, Won four Irish Champion hurdles and 19 grade 1's in total. Ridden by Ruby Walsh, beaten three of 5 main market rivals twice already this season.

The New One
Has won one grade 1 and only beaten one opponent in the field before which is the 100-1 shot Grumeti. Ridden by STD

Some bookmakers have them 5-2 the new one 3-1 Hurricane Fly and I simply do not understand why he should be favourite, to my mind we should be speaking of him as a 7-1 each way bet that could nick it if a couple of others fail to perform rather than the favourite and one to beat.

Hurrican Fly
Our Connor

My Tent/ New One/Jezki for third

 

1:30 Wicklow Brave
2:05 Trifolium
2:40 Ackertac, king massini
3:20 The New One
4:00 Highland Retreat
4:40 Shotgun Paddy
5:15 Ahyaknowyerself

GL all

 

Is Charlie confident of a win for Pendra stick now the trip is right? Be good for him to break his duck there after a promising few seasons now.

 

The Liquidator
Champagne Fever (NAP)
Hadrians Approach
Our Conor. No, wait. The New One. Actually, no. Our Conor. Or maybe The New One.....ohhhh ill go for a dead heat between the two!
Quevega
Suntiep
Pendra

Have fun everyone!!

 

Let the Guinness flow and the horses fly -especially Our Conor ;-)

 

1.30 Cheltenham

Wicklow Brave 7/1

Firstly, whatever you're backing in this race, you'd be crazy not to use Paddy Power's offer of money back if your horse is 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Cheltenham opener. Normally a race I have a fairly strong opinion on, I've found that this year I don't and am plumping for Willie Mullins' rapidly improving Wicklow Brave who I think comes here with an excellent chance at a decent enough price. Having taken 3 starts to record his first success in bumpers, Wicklow Brave followed up that maiden victory by landing two more bumpers (particularly impressive giving the re-opposing Western Boy 10lb and a beating on final run in a bumper) and his progression has showed no signs of stopping switched hurdling and he is 2-2 in this sphere. Having run away with a Maiden Hurdle at Cork at long odds on back in January, Wicklow Brave was stepped into a Listed Hurdle on his final start where he ran out a very impressive winner last month to stretch his winning sequence to 5. Despite being keen throughout and not the most fluent in the jumping department, I was very impressed with the natural speed he possessed as he cruised into contention and despite making an utter horlicks of the last he still won with plenty in the tank against the useful Lieutenant Colonel (has an each way chance in the Neptune for Dessie Hughes). Although jumping errors in a race like the Supreme would normally flag up a big concern for me, I'm actually not that worried about it as I think his jumping will prove massively for the better ground and frantic pace and I think he's got an excellent chance of winning. Although Ruby Walsh rides Vautour, he was never going to get off a Grade 1 winner to ride Wicklow Brave and Paul Townend is a very capable deputy and certainly deserving of a chance to land a big race at the Festival and hopefully he starts the meeting off to a flyer for last years winning trainer.

2.05 Cheltenham

Trifolium 9/2

This looks a far from vintage renewal of the Arkle and although the record for Irish Arkle winners to follow up at Cheltenham is poor I think if Trifolium puts in the same performance as he did LTO then I think he'll take a lot of beating. A horse I've always liked since his hurdling days, I think he would have gone very close to winning the 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle but for slipping going around the home turn and after a disastrous 2012-13 season where he was plagued by wind issues he's come back to his best this season as a Novice Chaser. Having won on chasing debut in impressive fashion, Trifolium probably went off a bit too hard in front when being comprehensively beaten by Felix Yonger on his 2nd start over fences but he came back to run a fine race when 2nd behind Defy Logic (would have been a leading fancy had he made this race) in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown at Christmas (wore cheekpieces that day that Byrnes thought caused him to run a bit too freely). His final start was undoubtedly his most impressive to date as he ran out a very ready 9L winner of the Irish Arkle when emphatically reversing form with Felix Yonger and I think a repeat of that performance will see him very hard to beat. Although his wind issues and his tendency to throw in a shocker are still outside possibilities, I think he's the most reliable horse in the field as most of his rivals have question marks to their names. Both Champagne Fever and Rock On Ruby look priced up on past Cheltenham success as opposed to chasing form and with the last 10 winners of this contest having at least 3 runs over fences I think both are very poor value in the market. Dodging Bullets has yet to prove he's a spring horse whilst Grandouet has not convinced over fences and apparently did not work very well last year whilst Valdez does look overpriced at 10/1 and is probably worth a saver. With Charles Byrnes' having a good record at Cheltenham with a small enough amount of runners, I'm confident of a big performance from his sole runner at this years Festival and hopefully Bryan Cooper can make it 3-3 on board this 7 year old.

2.40 Cheltenham

Muldoon's Picnic 40/1

It's very difficult to weigh up Kim Bailey's improving 8 year old's form from a handicap perspective but I'm hoping 135 underestimates him and with him getting his desired good ground and off a nice racing weight of 10-10 I'm hoping he can surprise a few at a huge 40/1. A decent enough hurdler, Muldoon's Picnic fell on his first two starts over fences back in late 2011 but since resuming his chasing career in October 2012 he's been progressive over the larger obstacles. After two good placed efforts, he scored at the 5th time of asking over fences when overcoming a bad stumble on landing to win narrowly from Well Hello There (rated 124). Muldoon's Picnic then won a 3 runner contest comfortably in a race that hasn't worked out very well at Southwell and brought up his hat trick on handicap debut off a mark of 132 but he was completely gifted that contest. In the 4 runner race on soft ground he would not have liked back in October, Muldoon's Picnic had joined the front running Strongbow's Legend at 2 out but the latter unfortunately fell and was fatally injured (also unseated the beaten Ballypatrick) as Muldoon's Picnic was left a country mile clear of the only other finisher. Although it can't be said for sure, I'm fairly certain Muldoon's Picnic would have beaten the unfortunate Strongbow's Legend and on undesirable soft ground over 3 miles at Huntingdon it would have been a good performance.

Raised 4lb for the run to a mark of 136, Muldoon's Picnic's final run came back in January when beaten less than 5L at Leicester over just shy of 3 miles in ground Kim Bailey said "he couldn't cope with" and all in all it was a pretty decent effort. The winner Edmund Kean has subsequently given The Romford Pele (who had some fine chasing form to his name) 7lb and a beating so it looks pretty decent form. Dropped 1lb to a mark of 135 and kept fresh for the last 63 days, I think it's pretty damn hard to quantify how well handicapped (if at all) Muldoon's Picnic is off his current mark but this represents his first start in a handicap on his favoured ground and unexposed over 3 miles I'm hoping there is quite a bit more to come. With Jason Maguire unfortunately suffering terrible injuries, Muldoon's Picnic will need another jockey but I'll be absolutely shocked if Nick Scholfield doesn't get the ride having won on him before and he’d definitely be a jockey I’d be happy to have on board. It’s definitely a selection that I can only be optimistic about as opposed to being confident about but at 40/1 I definitely think he could certainly outrun his odds and it would be terrific if he could come home in front for the Kim Bailey team.

 

3.20 Cheltenham

Our Conor 5/1

What a mouth watering contest we have in store for the Champion Hurdle and although it would be terrific to see the 10 year old Hurricane Fly win his 3rd Champion Hurdle I'm very sweet on the chances of Our Conor who I think can overturn Leopardstown form with the reigning champion. Although beaten twice by Hurricane Fly this season, he showed a drastic improvement on his 2nd hurdling start outside of his novice season and although I actually think he needs to make up more lengths than the bare form with Hurricane Fly on their last run (HF was well in command at the finish) I think he can do so for a number of reasons. Firstly, Dessie Hughes will have him utterly spot on for the first time this season at Cheltenham and you only have to look back Hardy Eustace, who was beaten all 4 prior starts the season he won his first Champion Hurdle, to see how good Dessie is at peaking his horses on the day. Secondly, I think Cheltenham is a big leveller for Our Conor against Hurricane Fly and I think the course alone would give him every chance of overturning the Irish Champion Hurdle form. Finally, I hope Our Conor is ridden differently from a tactics point of view as well. In the Irish CH, Our Conor came there swinging at the last and he was completely out-battled by the tenacious champion who was not for passing. I would hope that they send Our Conor to the front sooner and have Hurricane Fly try to come from behind as if HF hits the front it will be incredibly hard to pass him. Looking at the other contenders, The New One is currently battling it out for favouritism but I just don't think he's as good as everyone is making him out to be. Dessie Hughes came out with a brilliant comment in a preview night that Champion Hurdle winners just don’t make mistakes and that has to be a huge negative going into the contest for the Twiston-Davies charge as he certainly wouldn’t be the best jumper in the field. I still don’t think any of his form is up to Champion Hurdle standard and I’d personally be quite surprised if he wins. I’ll certainly hold my hands up if he does and applaud the horse but I definitely won’t be backing him. My Tent Or Yours is a horse I’ve never warmed to and I don’t think he’ll win and I actually think Jezki will probably finish ahead of him in the contest. Although I'd much prefer Bryan Cooper in the saddle to Our Conor, I think he represents a superb each way bet at 5/1 but I firmly believe this 5 year old will be crowned the winner of the Champion Hurdle.

4.00 Cheltenham

Quevega 5/6 (will to see if I can get evens)

Short and sweet but Quevega won’t be beat. I think she did incredibly well to win despite nearly falling over in last year’s contest and I don’t think there looks to be any new emerging threats to her crown and will be hoping she hits evens tomorrow (which she normally does) before unloading a big bet. Probably the banker of the Festival.

4.40 Cheltenham

Foxrock 9/2

Not a race I've got too strong an opinion on but I think Foxrock rates a great each way bet. Having looked like a stayer with endless stamina thus far, I think Foxrock brings excellent form to the table having won a couple of Grade 2 Novice Chases over 3 miles on his last two starts and although he'd probably prefer the ground on the slower side I don't think it will be the difference between him winning and losing. With Katie Walsh riding for her father Ted, I'm surprised to see Foxrock as big a price as he is and I think he's got a very good chance of keeping this race in Ireland.

5.15 Cheltenham

Present View 9/1

With 9lb separating the whole field, this looks a typically competitive handicap on paper but I think the progressive Present View still looks well handicapped off a mark of 137 and I think he has a great chance of overcoming a recent 11lb rise to give Jamie Snowden his first Cheltenham Festival winner. A P2P winner who fetched €40,000 at the sales, Present View progressed over hurdles without winning and made his chasing debut in a handicap over fences off a mark of 118 at Kempton over 3 miles back in November when a 5L beaten 2nd (probably just didn't get home) in what turned out to be a ridiculously good race for the grade. The winner Annacotty (then rated 123) has since come out and easily won the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices Chase (Feltham) and lines up in the RSA on Wednesday whilst the comprehensively beaten 3rd home Off The Ground has won both subsequent starts and is rated 26lb higher and looks set to line up in the JLT Novices Chase. Off an unchanged mark of 118 two weeks later, Present View bolted up over an extended 2m6f at Market Rasen before probably once again not getting home over an extended 3 miles at Bangor in dreadful conditions off his revised mark of 125 when beaten a little over 1L in 2nd. Raised 1lb to a mark of 126 and dropped back this trip of an extended 2m4f at Kempton last month, Present View scored impressively by an easy 10L from Ballinvarrig (had won both previous starts) and although the handicapper had just cause for raising him 11lb to a mark of 137 I still think he looks on a very favourable mark. With trainer Jamie Snowden stating he thinks he'll improve for the better ground and a stiff extended 2m4f looking ideal, I'd be very surprised if Present View is out of the first 3 but I strongly fancy him to score at a 9/1 price tag that I think represents excellent value.

 

Nightmare. Only day one and already I'm in far deeper than common sense would ever allow. I just kept nibbling at The New One on Betfair, and the bastard layers kept matching my stakes. All bloody night this madness went on.

What to do now? Start frantically laying some off? It can be done, with minimal damage, at 4.3. Or stand up and take it like a man? Maybe start chasing before the tapes even go up for the Supreme. That's it, back Arsenal to win at Bayern (17/2!!!).

I'm in the grip of a punting frenzy and the sun hasn't even come up.

 

It certainly looks like "Bookmakers' Benefit Day" at Cheltenham. They really are taking the mickey with those Champion Hurdle prices, not to mention the Arkle Chase.
Personally I think the Supreme Novices and Champion Hurdle are races to savour- and leave alone from a betting perspective.
How do you compare Irving with Vautour and Wicklow Brave? They've all been impressive in their own way. Irving would be my pick, but I just don't know about the strength of the Irish.
In the Champion Hurdle, both Hurricane Fly and Our Conor have a date with destiny- the former to try and win a third Champion Hurdle and the latter to try and emulate Katchit as only the second horse since Persian War in 1968 to win a Champion Hurdle in his second season as a five year old- quite a tall order! I think one of these two will prevail.
For betting, my fancies are as follows:

2.05 Arkle Chase.

Champagne Fever has to be an emotive choice- on the back of his previous Bumper and hurdling exploits at Cheltenham.
For my money, the best novice chase form has been shown by Dodging Bullets. He jumps and travels well, and I feel he lost nothing in defeat last time.
At 6/1 (Paddy Power), I feel he offers the best value on the festival's opening day.


2.40 Baylis Luxury Handicap Chase.
I've always preferred to back improving horses- as opposed to ones which have deteriorated and dropped to favourable ratings.
However, I do feel that Time For Rupert has an outstanding chance off his current mark of 138, 23 lbs less than his high of 161.
Ironically, I feel this former top class staying hurdler prefers today's better ground over fences, although he acted on the soft over hurdles.
He ran a decent second last time and has a good chance.
Time For Rupert . Best price 14/1 (various).

5.15 Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase.
Here I like the chances of lowly weighted King Vuvuzela, ridden by Paul Carberry.
He's done nothing but improve all season, culminating in a good fourth in the Leopardstown Chase.
Paul Nolan's charge should give a good account of himself, and is a sporting each way bet.
King Vuvuzela. Best Price 22/1 (Various)

 

first bet on horses for some months, Just the two for me today

Valseur Lido - ew
Green flag - ew

Good luck all

 

Finally the day is here...although I'll be at work and forgot to sky+ it this morning before I left!!

Anyways my selections for today:

1.30 Western Boy
2.05 Rock on Ruby
2.40 Wrong Turn
3.20 The New One(ante post at 8's)
4.00 Quevega
4.40 Foxrock
5.15 Pendra (win) / Close House (ew)

Good Luck all !

 

Pricewise has gone for the Tent then in the Champion Hurdle... bang goes any value that might have been available this morning then!