The last decent race before Cheltenham and for many a shot of bulking out the betting fund. The market has formed today with Regal Encore a strong favourite at 10/3. I'm surprised how open the McManus clan have been about how well handicapped they think he is. The Champion Bumper 2nd just a year ago, this horse could be literally thrown in off 130. I don't know what I'll back yet but thought some of you will have looked at the race and have an opinion. Any opinions gents?
I agree that he looks thrown in, but as a horse who has been ridden off the pace, will he struggle to make ground up if its heavy and testing? I note he hasn't been tested on heavy yet, and that is a major reservation I have. I like the Pipe horses, both have run on heavy and both have improvement in them, Swing Bowler ran well enough in the Betfair to demand respect in this. I am off to Sandown, hopefully conditions will improve before the weekend, if it does, then I am with Regal Encore.
Can't be having Regal Encore lads - I think he's been a massive disappointment this season, and the one race he has won looks a woeful one. You can't take Seeyouatmidnight as a form guide as that one has been a revelation since being upped in trip, and the horse that finished 3rd in the Hexham race is rated just 117. Regal Encore a 130 horse? I'm not convinced. Fourth Estate and New Years Eve my 2 against the field at this stage.
I've no idea if he's a good horse or not but given connections and his bumper form I can't believe he's not got the ability to run higher than the current mark. Whether he'll win on Saturday however is a different matter.
I saw HARRISTOWN work at the weekend and I have to tell you he just keeps getting better and better both in the way he moves on the gallops and his physical appearance. He really is starting to man up! I couldn't say in all honesty that he is thrown in but with some appreciable give in the ground he really will relish this test. He is only four and therefore will receive the WFA allowance that the boy Pipe has used to his advantage in the past. The yard won this in 2012 with PAINTBALL so Charlie knows what it takes to win the race. I expect if they go here Kielan will get the ride and that is another 3lb to factor in. Remember he didn't claim when they won that very good race at Huntingdon. The big question is how good is he compared to the favourite and we lets face it this is the worst kept secret in handicap hurdling but our boy is improving and we cant say that about the other fella with any degree of confidence. As Regal Encore is 100-30 and Harristown 20-1 I know which one I would rather be on! Annoyingly the weather is set fair for the rest of the week but its Heavy there at the moment so praying for a few showers as we really don't want the word GOOD in the going description.
As Nass says above, Swing Bowler catches my eye in this. If it comes up good to soft I would say she has an even better chance. She is still entered in the Mares race at the festival and the county hurdle. According to Pipe she is stronger this year.
New Year's Eve lads. About time he wins a big pot since shining behind champagne fever 2 years ago. Got act together on last few starts
I'll probably lump on Regal Encore at 3/1 and then lay it off over the next few days as he'll probably dip under to about 7/4 on the day.
Exactly ROTO. I just have. Tom Scu very confident it's 20lbs well in. Seems like an open secret. I'm laying off at 6/4. Letting it ride otherwise. Honeyball's poor form is a concern.
As I said yesterday afternoon on the ‘daily thread’ I can’t believe how few entries there are in this heat, at this stage, this term Just 19, I say, nah-nah-nineteen! The media are certainly of the opinion that Regal Encore has already won this and then followed up at Cheletenham. Meanwhile, that 20 pounds+ ‘well in’ comment revolves around the fact that off levels, in December at Hexham, Regal Encore gave 7 lbs to Seeyouatmidnight and was beaten 2 lengths. Seeyouatmidnight is now perched on 155, Regal Encore 130! It’s very hard to see beyond Regal Encore on this formline. Mr Henderson though has a entrant, namely Fourth Estate. Although he’s 8 the old boy has only run over hurdles on 4 occasions and a mark of 124 doesn’t look excessive at all. Maybe the forum’s favourite could give Regal Encore the most to think about. His sole run of the term, back in November, certainly hinted at promise.
What about his form from Aintree with Garde Victoire? Surely that suggests that he is worthy of a mark in the 130s? The fourth home that day was Silsol who was competitive off a mark of 121 when he went into handicaps and the fifth is rated in the 120s too. They were well beaten, and whilst that form was early season, I think he has enough in the book to suggest that he is worthy of his mark. The thing that interests me about Regal Encore is how easy he travels through races, I think he is the sort who will relish a proper pace to run against and will be suited to big fields (ala Cheltenham bumpers) and I also think he has been given some very interesting rides this season. The fact they didn't push him clear at Plumpton suggested to me that they thought he was possibly a horse for handicaps rather than the top novice races, and they gave him plenty to do at Hexham, and whilst he didn't get to the winner he was giving him weight and a soft lead. I really worry about the heavy ground though, because it will make it harder to make up ground on the field.
Harristown declared in this, but I get the feeling that its coming a week too late for him, as the weather seems to be picking up and the ground is improving all the time. I really think that things are set up for Regal Encore now, and I will be going with him to win the race. If I owned a bit of a horse that is good enough to run at the festival, I would be gutted if that wasn't the route taken.
He is indeed going to run in this Nass. Agreed it would have been better if the ground was heavier as his WFA allowance would have had a bigger impact but he is no mudlark and will go nicely on good soft ground no worries. The ground may be tacky and hard to jump out of which would work in his favour. In his first race at Newton Abbot he beat Abracadabra Sivola (now rated 141) on good ground 9 lengths without being asked any questions. That form says he could be even better on this ground!! He missed work before Warwick with a niggle and then at Market Rasen gave the field a tow round into a fearsome headwind (racing was nearly cancelled because of the wind) and set it up for the others. It wasnt an easy decision to go this route. What swayed it was that we think hes got a good shot at winning the Imperial and 4 year olds historically have done well in the race (especially lightly raced 4 year olds). Regal Encore is there to be shot at. Would you really take 11/4 about a horse whose trainer is 0/17 this season and whose 2 of last 3 runners have been pulled up and the other one beaten 38 lengths? Even if he is 20lbs well in a virus is a serious thing to overcome and the horses jumping has serious question marks. Im not saying Regal Encore wont win, im saying as an owner/trainer hes one to take on. A big scalp like his would be headline grabbing (and have JP reaching for the wallet ???!!!). The Fred Winter will have some horses in it which are ridiculously well handicapped and have been 'plotted up' for the race. I can see a few lurking in there. Its also a big field with numerous dodgy jumpers where anything can happen. While the trip and track would suit him perfectly we feel we would be running for a place at best. He will be an even better chaser and we are super excited about him for next year. He was a late developer but he's growing fast now and a summer in the field should see him fill out nicely. He will run in the festival in the future injury permitting so we are playing the patient long term game.
Good on you for going for what you think is the best route, as stated, I would be going to Cheltenham over Sandown (bare in mind both horses who won the IC as four year olds were plotted by mssrs Pipe and both ran exceptionally well the week later at Cheltenham). My rationale would be that the Imperial Cup is against older horses who are better (on ratings at least) than what you would meet in the Fred Winter, and I think its tougher to win against older horses than against your own age group, regardless of WFA (bar probably Group races on the flat). I would take 11/4 about a horse in Regal Encore, who looks ridiculously well handicapped, and I would say looking at his bumper form and first runs over hurdles, he is a better 130 horse than your lad is (please take no offence, I like Harristown a lot and would be very happy for you if he wins), and open to as much improvement from that mark as a result. The form with Abracadbra Sivola is strong (as I think the form of the last run will be) and you look to be very nicely handicapped for a race like the Fred Winter. Its just a shame in my eyes that you are going just Sandown, and to me it looks more like the trainer has done it because of his record in the IC and bad record at Cheltenham. I hope I am wrong but thats where I would stand on it.
Totally agree with alot of that Nass. Imperial isnt that easy to plot historically as often 4 year olds havent got in after their AFW. If the top weight hadnt been withdrawn and a the usual numbers had been entered we wouldnt have been in. I didnt say Regal Encore wasnt well handicapped. Absolute opposite, i said he was possibly 20lbs well in. I said I wouldnt back a horse with a trainer in that form at 11/4 no matter how well in i thought they were. By definition a horrendously out of form trainer has some well handicapped horses! Trainers form at cheltenham is obviously a concern although Harry has the right profile and charlie will be winning his first at the festival this year and the horse happens to be in the stable next to Harry!! I never said 'just' to Sandown 1 year from now will will be talking about him taking his chance at cheltenham as a chaser and i think the Imperial is the right call.
