There's been 6 seasons in the eighteen year history of the twenty team league when at this point in time (post matchday 26th) the 4th place team was 10 points or less removed from 1st (i.e. tight races) Out of those 6, two were freak seasons as the run-away winner snuck up from behind with hurricane vengeance: In 2002, Arsenal was fourth and put together a run of 13 winning games, and in 2000 United was second and put a run of 12 wins and 1 draw, to close their respective seasons comfortably ahead with 90+ points In the other four such seasons, winner's final point totals were much lower than average: In 1997, United won the title with 75 points. Liverpool came 4th with 68 points. In 1998, Arsenal won the title with 78 points. Chelsea came 4th with 63 points. In 1999, United won the title with 79 points. Leeds came 4th with 67 points. In 2011, United won the title with 80 points. Arsenal came 4th with 68 points. So, bar a crazy run from City, Chelsea, or Arsenal, 80 could be enough to win it all. I don't see any of them go on that type of run tbh, unless it is us who do it! We sit at 53 with 12 games to go, on pace for 77. If we win one more than our current trend (and that could be the City or Chavs game) 80 could very well win it. In the above four seasons, 68 was enough to get fourth: that is a mere 15 points (W4-D3-L5) from our remaining 12 games. Also to keep in mind that in all these 18 seasons (and probably before them too upon adjusting): A team with at least 73 points has never failed to get 4th place. and... A team with a goal difference of at least +30 has never failed to get 4th place ever.
Thanks, mate. Other disclaimers for the touchy ones: hope not assurances, history is not future, one game at a time, no guarantees, Spuds will not go away cause history says so.
Interesting stats, only thing is there are more teams than usual in and around the hunt for fourth/the title since it has been such an unpredictable season with lots of inconsistency from all teams at the top end. Certainly a chance to pull the title off though. COYR.
A lot of those teams still have to play each other too. We are fortunate that all but one is at home for us.
in fairness the more recent history of 2011 is a huge outlier and in the 1997-1999 period we must see that honestly utd were without rival. in 1998 wenger came in and took the title surprising utd who were all about CL wins cos they couldn't get it right. this year there are 3 equal teams (though city should be far in advance) for the top thats going to push the points total on. I would be a little surprised if 80 is as low as the title goes to. 85 would be kind of my thinking right now... though city again really ought to get the thing But again look at the tables those years for 4th. nobody was close a lot of the time. i think with spurs pushing hard with us and everton falling back we could have a two horse race shortly. everton have to do something to get back up here and time might run out.... I think 4th will need 73 points. I really think it could be a record year. 80 points though for the title... yeah it could happen but the reality is 1st is 57 points so 23 more = 80. 23 = 7 wins out of 12 plus one draw. I think someone will win 10 out of 12. who is the question... city have done it this year.
I could see the race getting all swampy, lathery and foggy like UIR's basement and we sneaking in first by a snout. What's more, I saw it in Gerrard's eyes after his euphoric jump at Fulham that he believes it's all there for the taking... and he packs enough personality to make it infectious. Contrast that reaction to his cold, almost annoyed, response at scoring in the FA cup - he seemed he couldn't care less, his eyes solely on the league, CL and perhaps the title. It's justifiable IMO as bar 2002 when Arsenal then went on that famous winning run, he has never seen the forbidden fruit hanging so low. Not even in 2009 where by this point we were 7 points behind United.
maybe... though i think we need to aim for 84 points. = 31 points. from 12 games that is 10 wins and one draw... and like i told UiR utd sure as hell aint doing that for mata's delusion so with our fixtures i think it is unlikely we can do it having to play spurs, chelsea and city alebit all at anfield. start with swansea as my elders and betters have said on this site.
at this poitn the title was lost in 2009 btw due to wigan and middlesboro. we sold keane and stuck babel up top and lost 0-2. if villa had have hung on for 2-2 and macheda not had is one career bright sport who knows but in the end it takes more than gerrard pushing and believing. Yes he is all about belief and it shows big time when he doesn't but that alone can't drag us through... neither can SAS up top. the defensive side needs to improve 50%. in 2006 we won ten on the bounce and had ten clean sheets under rafa. we are not that type of team this year under rodgers... more up front but the door is always half open at the back. aim for 84 min as a requirement in my view. start with swansea win (hopefully)
We need to aim to win every single remaining game, that's what we should expect as fans, that's what the players should expect from themselves.
true nobody but the small minded like allardyce go out to draw a game. but real belief when chelsea, and city... and tottenham come is required. I think we alwyays try but actually doing is the question.
Planning and expecting to win through proper training, preparation and tactics is one thing yes, self-belief is quite another and impossible to learn or teach, has to come from within each player and then be the foundation of the team, hopefully it's there.
i would hope so too... as you are right really. going and then looking round after 10mins and no longer playing the same pass you would have against a lesser side is what usually happens. It's like utd at old toilet now. they look nervous they don't play he same passes, each player is an individual etc.
