2014 Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

With no Un De Sceaux, who's providing the pace angle? Has Willie been playing a game all season?

 

I just think with any small trainer, that horse would be going for the Champion.

I always wondered if Ruby was playing the double bluff when he asked why Twister wanted a pacemaker when they had UDS in the race.

Now Thousand Stars looks the only viable option and he has never made it it a mad clip.


I am hoping that with Jezki wanting a good clip, and My Tent Or Yours needing a good pace to settle off, that Jess Harrington and Nicky Henderson, being good friends, and JP McManus owning their two horses, that they agree to Jezki making it a fair test from the front.


Really concerned that a lack of pace will leave some horses in front too soon.

 

Not good news for The New One who I've been keen on ever since the brilliant Neptune win last year. He would be one who would show his best with a good pace, as we saw at Kempton he was in front quite early, and I think that was his undoing in the end, as well as the horrific blunder at the last.

Can't see them agreeing to that Toppy, Jessie would still think she has half a chance with Jezki wouldn't she? Doesn't he like to race just off it, and then try to stay / kick on home? Then again you might be right, we've no clue what conversations go on behind closed doors with regards to running arrangements for horses under the same stable / ownership.

My Tent will probably do better for a decent clip, as would Our Conor and Annie Power (if she runs), the main horse a lack of pace seems to benefit is the Fly, and he will be nigh on unbeatable in my opinion if the race is run to suit him with Thousand Stars going from the front.

 

Normally a slow pace would suit the fastest horse, in this case My Tent Or Yours, but given that he pulls hard when they dont go fast enough and already has doubts about the hill, it certainly doesnt look ideal for him. Hurricane Fly got a bit outpaced in the race last year before coming back on it turning in with 3 in front of him all out after going an end to end gallop, if its a crawl and sprint finish he will have absolutely no chance of going with TNO and My Tent in the straight, only way he will win is by outbattling those two in a war of attrition, hes got no hope in hell of out speeding them. Maybe we are reading too much into who it will suit and who it wont, false race suits only one and thats the bookies.

To me it changes nothing, its still between the two English horses, both showed at Kempton they have no problems quickening and sustaining class speed off a slow pace, and both would have no problems quickening late off a real gallop. If anything a slow pace might suit The New One, means his jumping wont be under pressure before the race really starts.

 

If it's a sound surface, horse A wins; if it's testing, horse B wins, if it runs; if it's in between horse A or horse B or even horse C wins.

Firstly I haven't a clue what the surface will be. Secondly. I haven't a clue which will be horse A or C. If it's not testing horse B will probably not run. If it's testing and horse B doesn't run I haven't a clue what wins.

Horse B is, of course, Annie.

 

Thanks for the memory jogger Oddy. If it is a sound surface Horse A is Grandouet.

Just thought I would simplify it for everyone.

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Just the eyes Oddy, I trust them.

But I do know from the sectionals lads that he ran the last 4 furlongs of the Neptune faster than they ran the last 4 in the Champion, again proving himself off a slow pace.


Also with regard to the aintree race that was 20 seconds above standard, they walked the first furlong and a half if I remember correctly.

In a game where you can stand at the start for 40 seconds before breaking into a gallop I wouldnt be looking at overall times, if you want to make cases about speed in jumps racing it has to be sectionals.

I never really got into the speed ratings and stuff, but I can use my eyes to differentiate between a fast horse and a slow horse.

Thats why I was balls deep on Treve in a race that was also "wide-open" and people where considering 4 or 5 horses to win it when I knew it was a two horse race with one of those horses much the fav.

 

What I'm having difficulty understanding is why The New One camp are even concerned about a slowish gallop? After all we're told he has electrifying acceleration/an unbelievable turn of foot etc which surely means he can quicken better than anything else if it turns into a 'sprint'?

 

Oddy I wouldn't have any faith in the going description from his Neptune. The track had frost protection covers on it overnight the first few days. I would be very surprised if it had managed to dry out from soft to good to soft between Tuesday and Wednesday. It would have been poached and very testing ground as a result of the covers. My eyes saw him make a bit of a scruffy jump seemingly in a bit of bother and then an electrifying turn of foot put the race to bed half way up the hill. I'm hoping for more of the same in 3 weeks time. As has already been said though I won't be taking 3/1 antepost as I'm convinced he'll be longer on the day as punters pile into the Fly.

 

He beat nothing in the Neptune. I agree entirely with Oddy. There are no facts that back up this electrifying turn of foot nonsense.

I watched the Christmas hurdle again a few seconds ago and I have the inkling he's not got the stamina to beat MTOY over 2 miles with those tactics. His jump at the last was from a tired animal. Sam asked for a massive jump and he barely got over the obstacle. There's loads of reasons why that happens but one is definitely that he was tired. He's supposed to be the stamina horse but MTOY was coming clear the further they went.

 

That Neptune is better than people think. Rule The World at Cheltenham is a very well tuned animal- as all Mouse Morris animals they are only at their best once in a season. Don't forget Pont Alexandre was talked of as Pegasus before that and The New One demolished him. He has a turn of foot at the end of 2 and half miles- that is the key- speed and stamina. If Tent settles he will always be a danger in a speed battle, as will Hurricane Fly, despite his age, as he has showed twice already.

Is there any chance at all that Annie Power runs in this?

 

Can I see the quotes where its said The New One has an electrifying turn of foot?

Dont think any NH horse has an electrifying turn of foot, the good ones can quicken off a slow early pace, but its more sustaining a higher speed while lesser horses slow down that gives the visual impression of a turn of foot in this game. The New One showed in the International that he does have a bit of a burst of speed which certainly gives him an advantage over most in a sprint finish, but he hes not going to quicken like that off an end to end gallop at 2 miles, no jump horse will.

Dancing Brave had a turn of foot, Treve and Zarkava have it, its a very rare quality in a horse and I dont think anyone is suggesting that The New One has anything like what they have, but in NH terms he does have that ability to take it up a gear quite quickly when asked.

 

Nothing I've seen from any of his races tells me he has a difference making turn of pace.

The Neptune was poor TC. Absolutely no two ways about it. You aren't looking at the form if you think anything else. 8 runners. He beat RTW, a grade 2 winner, by 4 lengths. Only won a grade 3 since. Pulled up against Jezki for Christ sake. He beat PA, a grade one winner albeit the weakest grade one I have ever seen. Chatterbox won novice hurdles. Nothing else. Minsk - nothing but a maiden winner over jumps. Taquin - legitimate grade one horse over both obstacles. Ubak - grade 2 winner and neck 2nd in a 3 runner grade one. Two Rockers - grade 2 winner. Shown nothing since. It seems clear Taquin and Ubak did not run their races on the day.

TNO is better than that field. Of that there's no doubt. But, how does that form make him anything other than a 8/1 shot for a very strong Champion Hurdle? Especially when there must be doubts about whether the tactics they might employ on the day leave him too knackered to fluently jump the final hurdle of a comparatively easy 2 miles?

 

Neptune form is completely irrelevant, how many times does it have to be said, they went a crawl and 6 horses where still in contention 2 out, TNO just showed again his superior speed and done well to win as far as he did considering.

You want to be more worried about Captain Cee Bee setting a real gallop and finishing on the heels of The Fly and Our Conor.

 

Stick to the flat Boris mate. You know what you're talking about in that game.

If the Neptune is irrelevant what gives TNO a chance in the race? 6l's ahead of Zarkandar? Second to Zarkandar at Aintree? Second to MTOY when the stamina horse was ****ed a furlong out?

 

You should stick to the NFL because if your reading form literally off the paper in what was a half mile sprint your in the wrong game.

Minsk was still on the bridle 2 out in the Neptune ffs, TNO ran the last 4 furlongs of a 2m5 race faster than they ran the last 4f in the Champion Hurdle, does that not tell you something about the Neptune?

If that was a championship gallop Minsk would have been out with the washing 2 out.

TNO has yet to encounter a serious championship gallop so we dont know yet if he will be even better in that situation, or if he can jump well enough, and its looking like we might not find out for a while yet.

 

See your point but I think well off the mark picking holes in RTW's pulled up performance against Jezki- he fractured his pelvis I believe.

The form is ****e, granted. However, is last years Champion holding up well? Countrywide Flame was 3rd last year FFS. A 33/1 Triumph winner in the poorest Triumph I have seen in the 3 years I've really followed. Rock On Ruby had to make his own running and Zarkandar wasn't quick enough and has since been comfortable beaten by Annie Power. Is the Supreme holding up much better (Jezki poor, Puffin Billy )? It (Neptune) wasn't run at breakneck pace, but it is the race that gives you top quality Champion Hurdle contenders. The New One was good value for his 4 length win that day and could have won by more.

This is the one race where form might not be the key and that you are placing faith in either a) potential for a stunning performance from an improver (Tent, TNO, Our Conor, Annie), or b) class (Hurricane). All of their form for me is poor. Why? Because they have yet to be in a race like this- i.e one with unbelievable depth!

Hurricane Fly is the one to beat at this stage regardless of where you sit. That's not to say he WILL be beat, and not to say he WON'T. But he has beaten the two Irish contenders and is a double champion.


I genuinely believe this is a race where there is little to analyse and much of it is based on potential, and that is why it is so frigging fascinating. Cannot wait.