Apologies Nass, I thought it was a Grade 1 he won in France over 19F, but only a Grade 3. Ruby admitted he didn't have him close enough to the pace behind ROR in 2012 - witness the 2013 renewal where he was after the Fly along the back straight to keep him close enough to the leaders. He came back on the bridle at the bottom of the hill and was able to use his turn of foot to sweep past ROR. In 2012 he used his turn of foot to close the gap but was too far away to get past.
I don't think he lacks for stamina. A beating of the World Hurdle winner over 2.5 miles in soft ground suggests this to be the case. If he's beat it's for a simple reason and that's his age. EOS!
Hard to say and a little unfair on the new challengers- you'll never know what would have happened if he faced these horses in his 'prime'. He hasn't looked bad so far this year- winning much more competitive renewals of races he has otherwise cantered against Thousand Stars et al! It looks set for a good race. The Supreme novice disappoints me this season. Usually a good number of nice types in the field but the antepost market doesn't impress me much. I suspect this crop of Champion contenders will dominate next years Champion Hurdle too.
I think its bollox. He has beaten the best in Ireland in his two prep races. Top class opposition and nailed last seasons easiest Festival winner. He is in great nick and has pretty few miles on the clock for a ten year old. IF he gets beat I can only see it being by one of Englands young pretenders (I cant see Annie lining up) but don't detract from their achievement if they beat him. We know he is class on soft. Frankly he is a horse that doesn't need excuses and has rarely required one but age certainly has not caught up with him!
There will have to be a reason he loses because he's 175 and the rest aren't. If it's not age it will be a bad jump, crowding, tactics...
He never runs to 175 at Cheltenham and he hasnt run anywhere near that in Ireland this season, its bad to say a horse like that will get found out, hes already an all time Champion but what he is just now will get found out in a real race at Cheltenham.
So you agree if he loses it's age? He usually runs 3lbs below at Cheltenham. That's 172. The rest aren't 172. Point still stands.
His 175 rating has been earned in his last three runs. The handicapper believes that he is better than ever. That's not my opinion that's the official handicappers stance and if you are quoting 175 then that couldn't be more current.......so.......your argument does not hold water!
Am i missing something? I think he's 175. So do you by the looks of things. Do you think whatever wins will record 175 or higher? There is no way on earth TNO or MTOY are capable of 172 let alone 175+. If nothing in the field is capable of 175 apart from the Fly but he loses there must be a reason why he doesn't achieve that. Age is a reasonable explanation.
Yep. The Fly is widely accepted to have run below form that day and was under a cloud that entire season.
My point Bob is that his last three runs have been 175 - 175 - 175 is age going to catch up with him six weeks after his career best equalling performance? No! So ridiculous to suggest that age could possibly be an argument IF he gets beat. This debate will probably only convince more people that he is the bet of the week.
His 175 was earned at Punchestown last season, there is no way he could possibly have earned 175 beating maarito 1 1/2, then jezki and our conor who are around 160 with 148 Captain Cee Bee not far away. Could only rate him about 165-167 on this years run and even that is debatable, still a high level but there is nothing more to come and taking into account his running below his best at Cheltenham, if anything runs anywhere near 170 they will win this. TNO, My Tent and Our Connor have improvement in them I think and The Fly might have to settle for 4rth.
Even after all this vehement support of the Fly I've not had anything on him for the race yet apart from a little accumulator.
It's hardly 'bollox' to suggest a 10 year old can't be at their peak. If horses peaked at 10 we'd have had a plethora of winners at this advanced age! The simple fact that we've had TWO 10 year old winners says it all Hurricane Fly comes into this race at a huge disadvantage due to his advancing years against horses who should be approaching their peak. It will be interesting to see how many of this year's contenders are still competing at the same level as Hurricane Fly is at the age of ten. History won't judge any of these horses simply based on this one day and it's important people remember that
BEEFY, the horse ran supposedly the best race of his illustrious career six months ago so I really cannot see age being an excuse if he gets beaten. We are in for a cracker and hopefully there will be no hard luck stories and the best horse on the day will be victorious.
Interesting debate on the ratings. My take on it is this - a horses official rating is what that horse COULD run to. I fully agree with what Boris says above about HF's beating of Marito - that run in isolation would put him at about 150. Clearly HF doesn't run to 175 every race - he's not a machine - but he doesn't have to, he runs to what it takes to win the race. Recent years have shown us that age is no barrier to success at the top level in the sport. Add to that the fact that HF is one of the greatest hurdlers we have EVER seen and I have to say I'm very happy with my 13/2 ante post ticket.
You know what, i think this has turned out to be one of the best ever horse races, if not THE best and thats before it has even been run. There are so many top quality horses set to line up, everyone has a completely different opinion and everyone is so confident and behind their own selections. The debate really is fascinating. I have been firmly in the camp of The New One all year, in a truly run race i think he can unleash that turn of foot up the hill and take this however im now starting to have my doubts. There is no doubting the class of Hurricane Fly, you dont win as many grade 1s as he has without being good. Yes a fair few of them have been irish egg and spoon races but you can only beat whats put in front of you and he has regularly beaten the best that has come up against him. My Tent Or Yours is the one that i really cant figure out. He has the form to win this but i just cant see him being strong enough up the hill to fend off most of these. I was so impressed with Our Conor in the triumph last year and have been slightly disappointed by him this season. That is until his last run in Irish Champion. He served it up to the Fly in his own backyard in conditions where the fly is nigh on unbeatable. I was equally not so impressed by him last season until the triumph. I think he is a horse that gets better as the season goes on and i can see him being absolutely 100% at cheltenham. On slightly better ground as well then i am convinced he will turn the tables on the fly and i am really starting to think that Our Conor may be the one to be on. As for the others i cant see Un De Sceaux winning, i think he will get found out at the top level and just set the race up for the finishers. I have said elsewhere that i think the 25/1 on offer for Melodic Rendezvous is an insult. I have backed him at 25s as i think he should really be around the 14/1 mark. I think if the ground stays heavy then he could have a place chance. As got Jezki, i dont think he is good enough. He will run his race but cant see him challenging. Having been with The New One all season i now cant decide between him and Our Conor. But then two or three others could also win. The beauty of this race!
http://www1.skysports.com/horse-rac...-sounded-a-note-of-caution-over-un-des-sceaux Willie Mullins has sounded a cautious note about a potential Stan James Champion Hurdle bid for the exciting Un De Sceaux. The unbeaten six-year-old has won his five Irish starts by an aggregate of 117 lengths, and made all in the Red Mills Trial Hurdle at Gowran Park on Saturday. Speaking at Navan on Sunday, Mullins said: "He's good, he came out of the race fine. It took a fair bit out of him. People think it is easy but galloping two miles in that soft ground still takes a fair bit out of them." Asked about Cheltenham, for which Un De Sceaux is a 10/1 chance with Sky Bet, Mullins said: "I just wonder if he needs that at this time in his career, taking on those fantastic horses. "Obviously he is hugely talented for the future. We were happy to keep him under the radar and that's where I'd like to keep him."
