I come across many posts and articles about adding to our squad, transfers, loans etc. I see it a bit of a pointless exercise, since the next transfer window will hinge totally and completely on whether we'll have made CL or not. So, I rather we focus on discussing the players available until May and the game tactics, i.e. the relevant. However, here I'll go against my own preaching this time and make an article about this uncertain future. Why? Because whether we get CL or not, the long term future of Liverpool under FSG will have this very consistent vein transcending all circumstance: FSG believe in an aggressive youth-oriented recruitment policy. Something which deserves a large scope forum discussion. Let's recap a few things: FSG knew nothing about "soccer" prior to the takeover, but had infinite knowledge about baseball. They appreciate the value of how a 'farm system' sustains a pro baseball club. In addition, Henry had openly professed his admiration for the moneyball concept, Nate Silver, Billy Beane and Wenger (yes him). His decisions to remove Kenny and Comolli were quick and unrepented, rooted in his clear belief that they had betrayed the club's new vision. And since one can't have their cake and eat it too, this vision shall mean that as we move aggressively in the youth markets we will have therefore naturally less appetite for diving into the 'proven players' transfer markets. Should this preference sit well with us? Do you think this vision will lead us to the promised land long term? Will time show FSG are geniuses in applying their baseball 'farm system' concept? Or do you think that they will break with their vision when hard practical realities come athreatening (hard for a proud American to do)? I'm adding this below as it's handy to have. It shows how much youth we have and growing (italics) compared to proven players. Whether this youth will harden to form the solid foundations FSG sees in them, that's up for debate. GK: Mignolet, Jones, Reina, Ward LB: Enrique, Cissokho (loan), Flanagan*, Robinson, Brad Smith. *not player's primary position RB: Johnson, Kelly, Flanagan, Wisdom CBs: Agger, Skrtel, Sakho, Toure, Kelly*, Wisdom*, Ilori, Coates, Sama, McLaughlin, Lloyd Jones DM: Lucas, Gerrard, Coady CM: Henderson, Gerrard, Allen, Alberto, Rositter CAM: Coutinho, Alberto, Texeira, Suso, Brannagan W: Sterling, Ibe, Texeira*, Assaidi F: Suarez, Sturridge, Moses (loan), Aspas, Borini, Suso, Ibe, Texeira, Yesil, Sinclair, Adorjan
I think FSG have given up on Moneyball. The way it worked is that Kenny and Comolli were given criteria that the player had to fulfill (certain stats). They then made a list of players that fit the bill. Kenny was asked who he wanted, and Comolli was given the task of buying them and dealing with the financial aspect of the transfers (which is why I don't blame Kenny for the overpaying). I dont think they were replaced for "failing at the new vision". They recognized that the new vision failed and a new direction was needed. Kenny was sacked for choosing the wrong targets (Adam, Downing and Carroll). Comolli was sacked for basically spending 3 seasons worth of cash in one go to get these players. After this FSG clearly gave up on moneyball but continued a transfer policy of mostly young talent. Which is fine by me - they can go out of the norm (Aspas) or stay within it (Henderson). BR looks to have control over what he wants. I personally think we need to spend big bucks on a 24-5 year old midfielder who is either a rising star or established as solid. I'm sure FSG will let that happen - nothing is set in stone.
Don't see any indication they have. On the contrary, moneyball was invented to pick, buy and leverage youth and cheaper targets, LFC's preferred target range post-Comolli so far. Conspicuous inflated home buys for 22 and 35 mill are anything but moneyball. Downing, Adam, and Carroll were amongst the least leverageable players in recent history. I agree though that they used one moneyball concept - stats & simulations - and probably agreed on some idiotic scenario like ... Downing would cross 20 crosses a game of which 20% would reach Carroll's lofty head, of which 20% would be end up in the net. Bying Adam, ditto re his left foot strike rate. He's not even chief in the 4 man committee While nothing is set in stone, appetites for youth impinge on appetites for mature (as Zingy may well attest).
We've become smarter with our transfers. We're no longer relying on stats - we're relying on the judgement of some fantastic scouts and negotiating aggressively for them. Quite simply put. And I am in favour of youth policy - we should be looking at players around the 23 year old mark. These are players who should have had significant experience by this age but have not yet reached their potential. And I would disagree that Rodgers has control over who he wants - there are strong rumours that he wanted the likes of Ashley Williams etc but the committee overruled him and got Sakho instead. I think there are other examples but I can''t think of them now.
Negotiatiating aggressively? If a committee does something is remove nerve. Post Comolli, FSG moved Michael Edwards, a young graduate in informatics from the University of Sheffield, class of 2002, from his position as Head of Analytics to Head of Performance and Analysis and gave him a key role in the selection of transfer targets and a permanent position in what is now the Transfer Committee. Where else in PL or other top leagues do you have a statistician yielding so much power? Nowhere, as far as we know. That tells you smth about FSG's modern approach. On the other hand, our chief scout, Barry Hunter, who oversees the work of our extensive scouting network, is NOT on the committee, indicative perhaps that he gets directives from and answers to Dave Fallows. Will see how it goes. One thing I'm sure of is FSG will not change their vision, as what I get from Henry is clear convinction. I like the guy - nevertheless his is an unproven way of doing business in football.
polls rather pointless. so let me rips this to shreds first. GK: Mignolet, Jones, Reina, Ward... first is ok but average with ball at feet. second is terrible. third is being sold to reduce cost nothing more and fourth isn't even good enough to play championship LB: Enrique, Cissokho (loan), Flanagan*, Robinson, Brad Smith. ..f first is a decent player but not top 4. second is terribly poor, third is average. fourth needs review post loan to see if he's figured out where to stand. and smith is not good enough for prem. RB: Johnson, Kelly, Flanagan, Wisdom ... dear oh dear. johnson we all know. kelly looked unfit and not up to it, flanno is average (again) and wisdom is a decent young talent.. we bought.. need i go on? Coates, Sama, Lloyd Jones, coady, alberto, brannagan (way too soon to put his name down),Yesil, Sinclair, Adorjan just what is the point of naming so many reserve level players that in all likelihood aint even rpem standard at the end of the day. further we've not even seen a scraping of FSG strategy here. we've seen a) wage reduction b) gambling on very average talent (aspas, borini et al) c) not that much youth spending compared to rafa... in fact comolli probably bought more into academy that the rodgers era has. Our true successes have been buying players others are tossing aside from big clubs.. coutinho, suarez and sturridge... even sahko fit this.... if you made a list of players vital to lfc right now skertl and gerrard would be the only two added to those 3 plus henderson.. who is the ONLY kid bought for big money we have as an example. Our buys of alberto ilori and aspas this year, borini and allen before that have been bad... lesson? go buy off city, cheslea, real and the like as they shed players in FPP era... its not scour the earth for ukrainian sheep herders with dogdy agents and tax free incentives. Don;t buy those in demand, buy the cast offs who've not just gone for the moeny but have also not been given the chance. Chelsea have 26 players on loan. I'd predict 24 of them will be sold within 2 years
That's not moneyball, that is simply a youth based transfer strategy. Many clubs do this. Don't forget Aspas was 26 when signed, Sakho 23. etc. These are "younger" but more close to their prime than undeveloped youngsters. Agreed and we haven't seen many of those buys since have we? BR will have approved all names on any list ever compiled by the committee. To do otherwise would be idiotic and risk a long term project. He may not have financial say but his targets are all hand selected by him. This is common sense and rumours about Williams are just that - rumours. I agree to a point. We can't go full Arsenal (though they sign mature players as well). But I would rather have a decent base for the future than an aging united-esque squad. All I'm saying is that other than in the first season with sabremetrics under Kenny, we haven't seen pure moneyball. We've signed Toure, Mignolet, Aspas, etc who are "mature". We've avoided the Hodgson and Purslow era acquisitions of late 20's-30 year olds. Could we do with a 26,27 year old star? Sure. But until we get CL there isn't much we can do. In the end Rodgers has a plan and it isn't FSG calling those shots. They've shown their trust in him and I fully believe this is the way Rodgers wants us to conduct transfers.
Patience fella not all threads take off straight away. GK: Mignolet, Jones, Reina, Ward - With Reina on his way out and Jones not good enough we could do with strengthening here straight away it goes against policy as we need a Mark Schwarzer type player as cover for Mingolet. No point even talking about youth keepers. In defence when everyone is fit we have options and an every improving Ryan Mcglaughlin should be added to that list, players like Kelly and Wisdom need to be patient as they are center backs and again this is a position where experience is essential. CM/DM is the area where we need a player and not a youngster but someone who can come in and play now, Gerrard is still brilliant but is getting older and there are times where we need his physical presence of old the midfield of Lucas, Allen, Hendo did well when needed but we shouldn't be tied to that, we have young players who could come in but what we need is experience. AM Wingers - We potentially have a lot of very good options Coutinho, Suso, Tex, Sterling, Ibe, Sinclair etc we are covered no need to do anything here. Strikers - Covered imo Studge and Suarez plus cover if needed from Borini and the younger players, we'll be very unlucky if Studge and Suarez are out together long term. We ave a young squad with plenty of talent and potential all over the squad and in the academy, we should not buy to their detriment but should buy experience where needed. IMO we should buy 1 or 2 players this Summer and they should be of the right quality and ready to go we don't need more potential.
telling it like it is. we have a squad. those reserves are likely not that good, we've a few simialr kids in the squad.. lots of RBs, suso and teix are very similar really and ibe and sterling are too. In short there's just rossiter as a midfielder really. and thats a sixteen year old not someone we can say in 2 years will be good enough for u21s really, he looks good enough but he could plateaux for all we know... so its not a bloody conveyor belt. Its rodgers throwing them in and seeing what sticks which is far better than f'n rafa's i aint picking a kid attitude... plus rodgers SEEMS to be actually trying to use the loan system positively. BUT I am right our best players were all f'd out of their last clubs (foolish clubs) and so we need to be looking for real talent wasted elsewhere not hoping some numbnuts form ukraine (or spain) sticks when you give them a huge lift in level to play at. WHEN not if we are in the CL. We need to focus on improvement of the first 11 as rodgers said... not forever buying for the future. that was wenger's failed motto after all. now he's buying big and buying experience... cannot say their best players (cbs, carorla, ozil etc are not bought, giroud... )
One of the things we really need is a link to a club or clubs that have a similar playing style and that plays at the required level that will improve our loan players, Almeria is a good example and if we can build on that relationship I'd be very happy.
the polls we added for effect, ok. Danilo says we haven't done 'moneyball' since comolli left. Whilst I say FSG sacked Comolli for not doing 'moneyball' the right way. 'Moneyball' or 'statistically-informed youth/growth strategy' or whatever you want to call it is being applied at LFC more than at most clubs, and tentatively I'd say we're leading the way. The fact that Michael Edwards, this computer lad, is part of the 4 who decide on transfers is very telling. FSG has had success with it in baseball where players contribute individually and where performances are thus much more graspable by stats. In football, an infinitely more fluid game, stats can confuse you, as they will always show a small part of the picture. Hence if naively applied, this strategy could make a football team end up with 1) one-dimensional players 2) over-hoping on growth 3) lack of cohesion or leadership due to both preceding points. This article has nothing to do with our bright present or short-term future, where multi-dimensional complete footballers like Gerrard, Suarez, and hopefully Coutinho lead the way. I'm debating the long-term merits of such strategy. Maybe I should have name the article "Recruitment: Stats or no stats?", as I know many posters here are very wary of them.
Agree with you there, mito. I'll add a couple of other squad building options and make it complete... (1) 0 - 3 mill : a young home-grown academy player (2) 3 - 15mill: a young player excelling in one or two things at an lowly/average club or a U21/23 national team (3) 10-15mill: a young/ish player past their youth phase getting little game time/falling out at a big/biggish club (4) 15-20mill: a young/ish player excelling in one or two things at a low/mid BPL team (5) 15-25mill: a young/ish player excelling and leading the line at an ok club outside the top leagues (6) 25-99mill: a proven top league player in his prime We've gone for 1 and 2 recently and last summer. We had success with 3 last January. 4: Henderson, Mignolet, Allen. 5: Suarez and we flirted w mikhi, willian, salah, konoplyanka. 6: Pony and tail. I rather we were not as halfassed on 5, and also tried 3 more at the expense of hanging so much hope on 1 and 2.
you are not wrong. in short... option 4 is a very risky business. that is indeed the price, minimum for a british player in the prem.. joe allen for example. I feel throwing 5 options 1s at the reserves (sterling ,wisdom, ibe, teixteria, yesil) and seeing one come though is the way to go there. so fine aggressive youth policy. the option 3 is where the value has been for us and honestly we've tried to get an option 6 but will not get one unitl we are CL. and only then when the big big spenders are not in. so.... aspas doesn't fit your categories but honestly downing and carroll are proved to be away over priced for the age or acheivements which is a decent sanity test of the options.
