MITO's Block of Four...

Astro, what I am saying is exactly that. Things have changed dramatically since we played the first half of the season and they will change again at Easter.. I totally understand your 2 points and 2.5 goals calculation. What I am adding is that it is no indicator at all of what may happen over the next 13 games. For a number of the clubs we play you cannot even point to the results that we have achieved in our head to heads.

Neither I not saint are challenging the statistics, we are contesting their usefulness in predictive terms now that the universe has changed. Remember your trends and avarages are based upon a universe of 38. What we now face is a universe of 13. It's a totally different matter. That leaves aside any of the psychological factors that effect us and our opponents. In the first half of the season a loss was not nearly as serious as it may be for some of our opponents.

 

Anyone explained this to DR yet?

 

Give it time, he's only just learnt about cucumber, Coventry and third person

I gave up trying to teach him how to drive a F1 car

 

I understand the argument that we now have "13 cup finals", but the rest of the season is still the best indicator we have. Will relegation teams facing us be motivated to stay alive, or write off the game and focus their resources at easier grounds like Old Trafford?

Anyway, MITO and I will keep making the graphs until the end of the season so whatever happens we will see if there is a different trend in the last 13 games than in the first 25

 

Look, I'm not arguing this any further. Mathematically I believe its now a flawed system. So what there aren't really any other mathematical systems out there that are any better. Add to that I have enjoyed using it up to this point. Now we differ - so what. End of the day we all want Liverpool to achieve the highest points tally that it can.

 

very true

 

Keep 'em coming. I especially enjoy looking at the points comparison between this season and last.

 

Right we need to have a serious discussion in light of this chelsea result.

in the past two weeks, pre CL too boot the top 3 have been really throwing points away. we could now be only 4 points off the top with 12 to go tonight!

So..... looking back over the last 10 years the LOWEST points tally for 1st occured

89,89,80,86,90,87,89,91,95,90

so honestly that one outlier year if 80 points intrigues. That year utd won the title by 9 points on only 80...

surely this isn't going to happen this year is it? there are the big 3 scrapping away all year yet... it's possible to be a low total. I thought up to chelsea game with city that they were simply a juggernaut rolling towards the title easy.

now.... are we looking at mid 80s, low 80s, 80 points, 87 points. I don't know.

 

Quite simply we need to put a run together. You look at our next 4 games and any of the 3 above us would get 10 points at the least, if we're serious about challenging we have to do the same, and there will be times when we won't be at our best and that's when we need to grind out the result.

I think the last 6 games of the campaign is where we will come unstuck.

West Ham (A) is never an easy game. Man City (H) speaks for itself, Norwich (A) again, no easy away game. Chelsea (H), speaks for itself, Palace (A) away. Newcastle (H) potentially problematic.. Will certainly be interesting.

 

I would have to agree that our next games would.... on average win those.. now irght now as of today any of them could frnakly lose a couple it seems but generally speaking they would.

Norwich away = hat trick.
west ham away is unknown if they get safe i think we can win if they need a couple of points fat sam will park the bus.
palace away is a big one and a dog fight
Newkie will have nothing to play for on the last day so it'll be a 4-3 classic
the two big guys in the middle are huge games.

I'd quite fancy a.....

cancel city cos we are in cup semi. then play city for the title and fa cup.... #twohistoric wins... no but seriously.

the chelsea and city block is one where we could easily drop points to west ham and pick them up v cheslea. god knows but i feel we need to have put spurs away by then, we should be going in with nojthing to lose and a great thing to gain I hope.

 

MITO, the possibilities and permutations are too big to grasp. Whilst it's exciting it's also frightening. It's almost too much to cope with. So you know what I'm going to say - but it's the only way to help keep my sanity!

 

I think we would win the league if we won 10 out of the remaining 13 games. That would require a significant increase in our form.

 

thats only be 80 points. And it would require a significant increase in form or in other words a 2007 like run of ten games won in a row type of thing.

unlikely but you just never know

but again win tonight and we could be 4points off the top.

 

You only need to put a run together if you have a run of bad form too. ATM, we have steadily picking up points on a consistent basis. I'm happy for this continue for now. Any aspirations for the title would require a good run though.

 

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good result last night. fought for it seriously... defensive gobshites..

 

3/27. So far, so good, MITO.

 

Two wins from two in this block means we only require two points from the Southampton and Swansea games. Great opportunity to put a excellent block in though

 

This is the first time since Block 1 we've won the first 2 games. Chance of a perfect block...

#****ingswanseaandsouthamptonlasttimetoo

#nojinx

 

arsenal away first... looking forward to a game with a bit of spice to it. would love a cup to go with the league title