The day that was Sunday 9th February

What a cluster of great races in Ireland today. You can take something out of every grade one race.

Vautour ran a steady race. Never looked troubled. Could be tremendous. He got a lb today from The Tullow Tank who did not get a great ride from his jockey. On bare form TTT has to find 2 lengths in the Supreme. It will be fascinating whether the two battle out the finish to the Supreme. Maybe Irving will join them up the hill.

Ballycasey put in a great round of jumping on another clever ride by the best jockey in racing. On his 6th ever start he won his first grade one when quite readily dismissing two excellent yardsticks in Don Cossack and Carlingford Lough. He can only improve. I see him as a strong RSA favourite.

Last Instalment won a weak renewal of the days feature but he could not have been any more impressive and is now a contender for Cheltenham. The rest have zero chance of winning the Gold Cup. The race has some much needed zip again following disappointing seasonal withdrawals of Sir Des Champs.

The one thing that I've noticed about these three performances is a) heavy ground and b) front running rides. It's a slight word of warning. They were all three brilliant on the day but that riding style on this ground can be a huge advantage.

That my take. Any views?

 

agree bob -heavy ground form is just that -no more, no less-- suits some like a glove, others like a straitjacket--so unless it comes up similar at the festival its difficult to be confident of a similar outcome...

 

Ballycasey jumped really well, I was very impressed with that aspect of his race, but he didn't look the final article and won I think because of a brilliantly judged ride by Ruby, and I wouldn't have been surprised if the JP horse had finished closer to him than Don Cossack had. I am not sure of him for a big field race like the RSA, but I do concede that the RSA might not be a great vintage this season. I would however suggest that the horse who won another small field race in the UK this weekend is a classy enough sort to be winning the RSA. Smad Place has run well in two World Hurdles and I can see him improving on two thirds at the festival in the novice chase.

Vautour was very impressive, probably the best horse of the weekend for me, and will take some beating in the Supreme, and I think he will be the one that the Irish pile into on day one. I was also impressed by Last Instalment but think he is flattered by the result, it seemed that he got an easy lead and a change of gears that the others didn't have. I guess the race revolves around how well Tidal Bay ran, and to me he was a shade disappointing as he didn't travel as well as he can. If LI gets to the festival (glass legs according to trainer after race) then he makes the Gold Cup even more interesting. I can't have him outstaying Bobs Worth up the hill though.

I will also throw in Balder Succes who was so impressive with his jumping at Warwick. He really does jump for fun, and I think he will run well at the festival.

 

Vautour for me was the weekend's highlight. Pre-race The Tullow Tank brought the best novice form to the table, winning 2 Grade Ones, and he still run his race yesterday based on his defeat of the third horse. I stuggle to see TTT reversing form even allowing that the uphill finish will suit him, the Supremes will be run 2 furlongs shorter than yesterday's race tilting the balance very firmly in Vautour's favour. I completely agree with Oddy about his jumping, it is very quick and clean whereas TTT was slightly sloppy at times I thought. I don't think the ground helped or hindered Vautour yesterday and can see Festival ground having absolutely no hindrance to his chances. The strong gallop in a Supremes will see him in a better light where Ruby can bury him in the pack and allow him to burn off the gallop and stay on up the hill to win. I'm actually extremely confident there's not a novice around can beat him and glad I took the 10s on him last weekend. The 5s and 6s still isn't bad in my view either, as we know, punters love to get stuck into one in the Supremes and I'm sure this fellow goes off around 3/1 on the day.

Ballycasey probably benefitted most from a very shrewd front running ride but as you say it was only his second chase race to date, add in the fact he's clearly had an interrupted preparation getting to the race I can see further improvement. His defeat of the Don yesterday in my view elevates him above Smad Place (and his win over Sam Winner) in the RSA and I think Ballycasey is the one to beat in it. Maybe he's more ground dependent than Vautour though, and fastish ground may be a slight worry for him. RSA winners tend to come out of this race is another positive.

Last Installment again is one should improve and his jumping is a thing to behold, at the second yesterday, he took about 4 lengths out of the entire field. Has place claims in a Gold Cup at best in my view but you can be sure there'll not be a better jumper in the Gold Cup field than this horse.

I had a very silly Rich Ricci 4 fold yesterday which I feel I must declare. Vautour, Champagne Fever (Arkle), Faugheen and Ballycasey all to win. Of course it won't happen but that lad from Nicky Henderson's with his 5-timer in 2012 probably thought that too They all look to have outstanding chances and when I saw the payout I thought, that's worth a few quid! 809/1

 

Nass, personally I’d be very wary of backing Balder Succes at the Festival. Certainly if he runs in a field of more than 8 runners – which is almost assured. I’ve spoken on here before about his record in such races and Alan King has also said how the horse doesn’t like these sort of contests as he dislikes being crowded and the hustle and bustle also associated with such a heat. This is most deffo confirmed by his record which reads since coming to the UK –

Field sizes of more than 8 runners -1FU08U554

Field sizes of 8 or less -113131F151

This field size aversion was the reason that last term the old boy ran in the cut up ‘Champion Hurdle’ as opposed to the ‘helter skelter’ of the Coral Cup or County Hurdle.

 

Vautour was brilliant, much more impressive than I ever imagined, and he would be my bet for the Supreme now, although I may have missed the boat, 9/2 now! The Tullow Tank looked slower than I thought he was, I knew he lacked a bit of zip, but he looked very badly outpaced, can't see him reversing the form. Could do with seeing Irving again before the Supreme, but not sure where he'll run.

Theres just something about the Hennessy race that doesn't sit right with me, I though Last Instalment was very impressive, travelled and jumped beautifully, but I get the impression the race was run at a crawl then the pace lifted out of nowhere with about a mile to run. I may be completely wrong, but my reasoning is that Tidal Bay was well up with the pace early on which you don't see at all, he almost jumped to the front on some occasions, then the pace increased quicker than his old legs could keep up, and he was badly outpaced between (from memory) around the 5th, 4th and 3rd from home before flying home again when the sprint down the back took its toll on some of those in front of him. If he doesn't place in the Grand National I'll be amazed, providing he stays upright of course!

Don't know about anyone else but I'll eat horse **** for a week if Last Instalment wins a truly run Gold Cup.

 

SRisky statement that Joe unless your a coprophile!

 

NASS. I wouldn't be in a rush to get on BALDER SUCCES for Cheltenham. The vibe from King pozt race was that Aintree and Punchestown are more likely targets than Cheltenham. That ties in nicely with Barneys theory. I would agree though that it was an impressive round of jumping. Perfect apart from a bit fiddly two out. I like the horse a lot despite him costing me a huge double last season. Glad to see him back to his brilliant best.

 

Last Instalment was one of the most impressive Irish Novice chasers I have seen. He looked more like a Gold Cup horse than anything else they have produced. Oddy bought my attention to him and I have to say, he looks a real out and out stayer, like Denman. His jumping makes all the difference.

For him to finish so close in 3rd against Texas Jack et al on reappearance- all solid 150+ animals, told me he retained a fair bit of ability. He was barely race fit- I was stunned he ran so well because he had at least 25% to work on if not more that day and as we saw yesterday, improved an absolute tonne for the run.

We don't know how he wil fair now until March but he is going to have a very easy 10 days or so and then they will gradually work him towards Cheltenham. With the way the weather has been here, one month out you would imagine Cheltenham will have a bit of soft in it at least so it all depends on how he recovers uyp until then. If he can get there in one piece, he is a serious, serious player in this field. They are not all great jumpers and it was Bobs Worth's engine that saw him home last season. If Cue Card/Al Ferof go they add an extra dimension in terms of speed, so the way the stayers jump will be crucial if they are to cut horses like that down late on.

First Lieutennant is ALWAYS primed for Cheltenham and always better on good ground, so that would be the one thing I would treat with caution on yesterdays form, but LI's jumping puts him right in the frame if he can stay fit and well. He will stay 3m 2f as well as anyone IMO.

 

Neither Vautour, Ballycasey or Last Instalment will win at the festival, good horses tho.

 

Ballycasey I agree, Vautour I think is actually a Neptune horse that is forced into a Supreme because of Mullins depth. Depending on that lines up I will then decide if we take him on.

Last Instalment could be anything depending on whether he can improve again!

MOG- what do you fancy for the Supreme mate? Usually I'm well versed with the pecking order but the only one I really like is Valseur Lido, and I'm not sure if he will turn up!

 

Im very keen on Western Boy, hes crying out for good ground and if he gets it I think he will have too much speed for Vautour who he gave a bit of a fright to at Punchestown. Vautour is probably going to be running in similar style to Champagne Fever and he might tough it out in front but he might also be a sitting duck going to the last. He was having his 4rth run over hurdles and Western Boy only his 2nd that day, so I think there is plenty of improvement to come from The Boy. Yesterdays race was a bit of a throw out with Ruby under no pressure from the front and Vautour is very much a chaser in the making. Western Boy is going to be much more suited to the Supreme test, I expect him to come there like Go Native and if he was with a top stable he wouldnt be 16/1 just now.

 

Vautour jumped brilliantly but lets be fair he was never hassled, Had everything his own way throughout. Was steady from the onset and quickened up as he liked in otherwords the jockeys in behind were clearly braindead on the day to allow Ruby to set his own fractions and basically steal the race from the front. He's not going to get that in the Supreme and Im pretty certain everyone will have learned there lesson from last year re Walsh/Champagne Fever. I think Vautour needs further and if he was being aimed at the Neptune I'd be very tempted but 4/1 for the Supreme doesn't interest Me not when I think Wicklow Brave would leave him for dead and he's currently trading at double that and more at 10/1 and the 8/1 about Irving could be made to look silly on the day, His form is working out well and I can see big improvement for the better ground...

Last Instalment was very impressive but beat nothing of note re the Gold Cup, Not sure I'd fancy him to beat Conti or Bob around Cheltenham either. I hope he takes his chance to just had an Irish element to the race.

Guitar Pete was impressive but you could probably stick a pin in the Triumph field and end up with the winner.

If I was to back any horse from the weekend at Cheltenham it would be Ballycasey in whatever race he goes for. He probably didn't beat a great deal at the weekend as I've found Don Cossack very disappointing since going chasing and Carlingford Lough was beat going to the last but Ballycasey is a very good jumper and as tons of stamina. The RSA or 4 miler will be ideal. Personally I hope he goes for the 4 miler...

 

Having now watched the race, I wasn't overly impressed with Vautour. I'll probably be proved wrong but I'm finding it difficult to understand the enthusiasm for him re the Festival.

 

MOG: This is your Go Native / Hurricane Fly moment repeating all over again! Western Boy isn't going to reverse form

 

The difference being, I didnt think Go Native would reverse the form, and I was on him at 50s for the Supreme, only got 20s Western Boy.