MITO's Block of Four...

not in one block of 4... you not see citys form? I only need to point to them having onw 11 out of 12 previosu to the last two results with one draw to show they have run at that form


finally if rodgers can talk about blocks of 5 and taking 10 out of 15 points for 2 points out of 3...

well i aint that mad am i?

I put this out first in 2011 and the fact is the system works.

 

BR is your acolyte.

I think Chavs' average runs out at about 85 or 86 at the moment. Everyone else is obviously correspondingly lower.
There's a good chance no-one will hit 90 this season.

 

If you're talking about the titlr then yes, the blocks are redundant. However, this thread is about monitoring our progress in the race for top four.

 

MITO, just like Horace Batchelor you should learn that no one analytical system works in such a dynamic environment. You have to go much wider.

 

As the 2 objectives are directly related then I still think that the 4 block analysis now causes more problems than before. Its already leading MITO to make some indefensible claims about points performance for other top 4 candidates.

However, I will accept that I am promoting both a psychological and myopic approach - this laso has its problems

 

Ha sthe latest block of 4 finished? Someone please post it. thanks.

 

are you saying that city have not hit 10/12 at any time? really?

i suggest you just look back at the results frankly

the whole POINT is to stop guys running away with themselves negatively when we lose a game. I have pointed out 3 things

1. the top team will be around 90 points... yeah maybe it'll be less we'll see.

2. 4th will be about 70 points

3. Good teams can lose a game and frankly respond (the new arsenal mantra it seems today) that means go win the next 3 or 4. correspondingly good teams don't go lose 2 or 3 on the bounce and expect to stay in contention.

it is therefore absolutely valid way to look at things, see where we are going and how to get there. Further the villa and west brom results were looked at in context here... without over reaction.

Rodgers is busy doing his sums right now. he wants 2 out of 3 points. if he wanted that at the start then to say it'd be too soon for CL then either he's onyl aspiring to 60 odd points this year or he's sand bagging.

Next 3 games are big ones for me.

Cos you know i do actually agree when there are 10 games left you really start to sort the men form boys. Every game is must win, the pressure comes on. they are all cup finals and you are pushing and trying to get over the line. SO do you: a) panci when a bad result happens or b) react to that result positively.

I look for positivity.

So this system does work and it gives a trend you have to match... so far we've done so.

 

MITO, saint already pointed out the error in your calculation so I think you should refer back to that. Now if you want to attack my approach then do so on the basis of its strengths and weaknesses.

I stated clearly that I believed that more pressure will be added if players and coaches focus upon anything more than the next match. This is particularly true for Liverpool. If you watched the Spurs v Everton match you would have seen just how close it was between winning and losing. From now on its a complete dogfight for both those at the bottom and at the top. Therefore trends, based upon what has happened earlier in the season are nigh on useless as predictors.

 

you seriously want me to show where city have got 10 out of 12 points in any blocks... or arsenal or chelsea. It is obvious that not team has consistently hit it but all teams have ran on that rate for blocks.

Do i really need to go to the bother of looking up all their results graphing them and showing you? seriously? do i?

c'mon guys on its face it is obvious teams have done it.

in any event i suggest this thread has gone on for 25 round and you guys start questioning now.

your approach is predicated on 3 factors IMO.

1. you wish teams now to not pursue a target but to go try in every game. that on its face is perfectly reasoned as it it obvious. everyone tried to win every game.

2. You wish us to improve our form, go for the jugular, not look too far head, concentrate on the sharp end. thats fine. on its face going all out to cross the line is what every team does.

This method is simply a method of looking at results over the period of time. Back in 2011 I looked at the thing like this;

1. there are some very clear totals that teams get in different league positions. For example 1st, 4th, 17th by looking back 10-15 years you can see only a couple of outlier years.... ie most of the time to winners get x and the 4th place guys get y and the relegated teams get x.

2. Then try to related those x,y and z totals to a number of points per game.

3. make that points per game total "more real" I found out of 3 games was too short and meant nothing but taking games in a block of 4 meant more as it was usually over one month, it related to achievable points totals... i.e get 8 points out of very 12 and you will get 4th.

So its as simple as that. If you've been tracking all along towards 4th that what you do. If you track towards 1st you head for 90 points, 4th is 70, safety is 40.

In the end any one of the 4th (chortle) teams thinking 4th is possible could go on a run of championship form. over 5 games thats possible.

But i'll say this. when the city and chelsea games come back around those not seeing the trend will probably explode if we lose, 4th will be impossible and all that... now of course you guys being experienced fans will just look for the next game.

The method is simply a means of relating a points per game requirement to the fixture list and give an indication of whats required to achieve a certain tally.

whether rodgers uses 5 games or i sue 4 the target is 2 out of 3 points. .. you can't get 2/3 in one game....

Its that simple.

Several managers set objectives for themselves. infamously allardyce would class games and not bother to turn up against utd for example. yes winners will win, yes its a dog fight, yes winning the next game is all that matters.

However that doesn't make the maths any less real. LFC have been trending toward 76 points. Knowing this gives confidence to certain of us so why poo poo on it?

I mean a guy lacking confidence could look at the spurs and everton rather strong lineups and then take rodgers at his word of how young our team is and crap himself someone else could take SAS and say why are we not winning the league.

If its just some peoples way of keeping cool and looking forward then its just as valid a method as not looking forward pas the next game

 

I said that no-one has averaged 10 per block, not that no-one had ever achieved it.
Chelsea are top- extrapolate their average to the end of the season it's about 85.

 

I think it still gives perspective, especially after results like the WBA one.

 

Arsenal was the first game in block seven

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fine. but my claim is not indefensible. its patently obvious teams have done it and quite a lot.

90 points falls between 9 and 10 points out of 12. nobody is thus far on for 90 points this season but it can easily happen still mathematically.

how a claim can be indefensible when its patently true i don't know.

Averaged is one thing... a clubs trend compared to TARGET is another. some clubs have trended very close to 10/12. city were well off at the start, then actually topped it for a good while and right now have dropped 5 points in last two games. they could well look back at this period and say thats where they lost it.

it is still valid to state: day 1... 70 points is what we need there or there abouts to get 7th how do we go about that... or you know what with city and chelsea in the league to win it we need to look at about 90 points.

 

Your trying to use trend. OK then why not use more sophisticated statistical techniques? The truthful answer is that more accurate techniques give you no more reliable information. It does not mean that trend is in any way an accurate predictor. It may make a good discussion basis but a bloody awful management tool as it cannot look forward. So that's why I'm saying that the point has come in the season where any usefulness it had has now past. What we may have achieved will in no way help us determine what will happen or what the target should be for say Group 8.

People think Mourinho is playing games when he says that he'll consider the title when a top 4 place has been secured. I don't think he is. Until top 4 is secured he'll face every game one at a time - after all it is all that he and his team can actually do!

 

I'd just like to point out that I didn't mention the word "indefensible".

I'm discussing, rather than arguing, the point. Your original assessment of the finished points required for each position is fine at the beginning of the season, but as the season wears on predictions need to be tailored according to experience and observation.
At this stage, it looks unlikely that anyone is going to get up to the 90 point mark, though Chavs are looking pretty strong. I can't be bothered to research it, but I think that in most recent seasons one or two clubs have opened up a considerable gap by now, and they are the ones that end up with that high points total.
This season the points have been more evenly distributed amongst the top 6 or 7 clubs, and although they're starting to string out a little bit now, there's still nothing bigger than a 4 point gap until you get down to 9th - 10th place.

 

I used the term indefensible in relation to the claim that trend info continues to have validity at this point in the season due to the reasons we have both identified. But if it annoys MITO so much I'll withdraw it.

 

FFS, can't you guys do small comments

 

Is 2 lines too much for you?

 

It was two and a half and yes, that one was just about right

 

Brain hurting?