It's a great card in Ireland at Leopardstown where 4 grade ones are contested over hurdles and fences. I thought there'll be a few interesting views on the racing so no time like the present to get the discussion started.
I'm rarely around for Sunday racing, but I've had a little tickle on Last Installment in the Hennesey. I wouldn't go as far as saying he must win here to have any chance at Chelts, as we don't know how far on he is, but having had a little ew on him in the CGC I'd be gutted if he won this without any "help" from me
Only 7 run in the big one and although some decent pundits say 6 can win I honestly see only First Lieutenant, Last Instalment, Tidal Bay and Lyreen Legend as likely victors. If Tidal Bay won as a 13 year old it would be disappointing to say the least. I love First Lieutenant and would love him to win but at 2/1ish I don't think he's any value given how often he finds one or two too good and the fact he's better on nice Spring ground. Surely it won't be that tomorrow. Last Instalment ran a great race on reappearance. He'll turn round form with Texas Jack but whether he'll produce enough to win is a real piece of guess work. Lyreen Legend will run well on the ground. From what I can see he's the only one who has frequently run on and won on heavy. Having said that though is he really good enough to win a grade one against fair opponents? 11/2 best price. I've looked long and hard and genuinely think this is a no bet race.
It is a no bet race Bob but Tidal Bay has got the biggest balls (pardon the pun) by a mile and will have too much in the locker for this lot, especially with Ruby doing the steering.
Tullow Tank 1/1 for me should take a lot of beating with everything looking in favour for him and have been mightily impressed by his attitude thus far. Ivan Grozny 10/11 is another I like, was a bit guessy at some of his hurdles when he last met Plinth but looked much better last time and I'd expect him to win here with a clean round. A double on these two, by no means retirement money but if the two can win I shall be happy!
Ive backed Vautour for the Supremes so obviously hope he can take down The Tank. I'm hopeful he can but better judges than me fancy The Tank. There'll be a Supreme market shake-up after this. Tidal Bay could well fly home to win the Hennessey but its a watching brief for me. This card last year produced FIVE festival winners by the way so it's well worth noting... EDIT: Originally thought it produced FOUR festival winners. I was wrong it produced FIVE !
The winner of the juvenile race has a great recent record in the Triumph. Grozny beat nothing LTO albeit impressively. Evens is a bad price. Will Plinth confirm form with the fav? I don't see why not. You could argue the horse has loads of flat ability and ran his best race on the level on heavy at Galway in a €60,000 race. I took 7/2 during the week for the horse and I'm happy with that win or lose. 2/1 currently still shouts a bit of value given who's favourite and the last run.
The novice hurdle looks a match between the Tullow Tank and Vautour. I'm on The Tullow Tank for the Supreme and was very taken with his run LTO. However, he's even money tomorrow and don't see the point in backing him. At the end of the day Vautour is rated very highly by a yard that know their onions and have many yardsticks to judge him. He could be brilliant. What we know is that TTT is an excellent horse with a massive engine and a kick so whilst I think TTT will win tomorrow and firm up for Cheltenham I won't be surprised if Vautour wins and at the prices what's the point in betting.
In the novice chase Carlingford Lough hasn't proven he'll love the conditions and lost to the Don when they last met so he's dismissed. Don Cossack will relish conditions, trip and the small field is fine. He's a worthy fav to my mind and could grind Ballycasey down but 6/4 looks like there's no value in him. Ballycasey simply must have been hard to train because a horse with his reputation should not have only run 5 times. If he's right he's a bet at 2/1 IMHO. We know the Don will run to low 150's. I think there's every chance Ballycasey can perform 10lbs better than that eventually. He'll have learnt from the last run both because it was his chase debut and because it was only his 5th run. He's a horse with serious scope. Conditions are fine and my usual jumping concerns with Mullins horses aren't there because the ground and small field should lead to a more sedate pace.
It's a while since I seen the figure I think it was 16/1 but don't hold me to that as it may be different. EDIT: Just googled it there he's 10/1 ..not for me.
Come the festival isn't it getting increasingly like they will struggle to get good to soft ground for it? Forecast is to stay pretty much as it was up until middle of this month at least and the ground there has been fairly bad the last two meetings.
there seems to be alot of people who think that Harry Topper has no chance in the gold cup-i beg to differ--although he will need to jump better-he has been doing that this season, indeed you have to give credit for winning the charlie hall with such poor jumping. Today he was more fluent , again getting better as the race went on--i agree the ground favoured him more than any of his rivals--but he doesn't need it bottomless, his freaky engine is without doubt his greatest asset -but at only six you would expect his best years are ahead-if the ground is any way testing you would have to give him a serious chance --but i think next year will see him blossom--his trainer knows whats required to win the GC , and he makes no secret that this horse has the potential to be the best he has ever had .
Interesting entries for this fellow should he take up either before the CGC Top weight in the Ivan Straker 3m2f at Kelso giving 10lb to Long Run possibly and alternatively top weight in the Grand National trial, 3.5m at Haydock where there are so many entered it's impossible to say where the dangers are. But giving lumps of weight in distance handicaps doesn't seem like ideal prep work?
kelso was where he came a cropper last year iirc- i suppose the horse will tell them --but that run in the argento was his first visit to prestbury -jumping adequately for the most part--we all know the gold cup is an acid test of jumping and stamina--at pace-he certainly has stamina -and guts -jumping is improving --but he's only had 14 races -so lots more to come--i think that next year is more feasable for a serious challenge --but connections will keep their options open naturally , in case it comes up testing this spring .
Chocala at Exeter and Noble Citizen at,southwell -a double for me. Pay the Greek runs on the fibre sand for the first time -his sire has excellent stats on this surface .there was a lot of money for this horse lto-may get compo today.
Doesnt appear to be much value in the two big novice races unless you got on antepost, Vautour was 3/1 and Don Cossack 5/2 a couple of days ago. The Tullow Tank will take all the beating but hopefully Vautour runs a race to hold up the Western Boy form. 3 runners in the chase looks a sore head, guaranteed false race and Ballycasey might be the one to benefit, although I still wouldnt mind being on Don Cossack at 5/2, of the 3 I think he is by far the most likely to win at Cheltenham. First Lieutenant really ought to be winning but he is a bookie horse and 9/4 is probably about right. I backed Lyreen Legend in the Lexus and he ran better than it looks on paper, he will come on plenty for the run and he might just be the main danger to the fav, 5/1 looks about right for him too. One I do think is a bit of value tomorrow is Guitar Pete 7/1 in the first, hes got form in the book and could still be improving, I wouldnt be interested in falling for, or taking the prices on any of the front two and I think Pete is way overpriced here. 20/1 for the Triumph is worth a punt too.
