You need to change your name to Mystic Munky ? As you know the future hows about letting a few of us in on this weeks lottery then ?
To be fair Chippy, I did the predictor calculator, and the only way I could get safety being 39+ is if all teams in the lower half take a lot of points from the top five or so. Being reasonable, the highest I could get for safety was 37 points, and that required two teams to be cut adrift and completely collapse (no sign of that yet) as well as a lot of big results against the top teams. You only have to look at the table compared tot his time last year or the year before to realise safety is going to be low.
Well if 37 is the highest expected total then we have to aim to get those 13 points from the next 10 games. I can't see that happening so I think we will need at least 2 points from those last 4 to be safe going by that. That probably won't happen either Our saving grace will be other teams, Hull seem to be regressing as the season moves on, Swansea could well be shooting themselves in the foot, Fulham are all over the place and I just cannot see Cardiff doing anything because we bossed them for virtually the whole game (and thats something we never do). I also think we have a better squads than many of the sides down there, particularly Hull, Stoke, Cardiff, Palace, West Ham and Sunderland. Unfortunately I think we have (in terms of developing confidence and positivity to get out of a rut) the worst manager of the lot, and by some distance. Of the managers at the bottom in terms of who I think would get the best results out of the squad theres really only OGS and Meulensteen I'd rate worse than Hughton. But I do think we will stay up because I just don't rate Cardiff and Fulham as being able to turn it around (although someone nearly always does) and I think Hull are about to enter a mass panic and will disintegrate once they are visually just above the relegation 3.
I think the turning of the price into a percentage is a bit meaningless. The bookies have us as 4th likeliest to go down - in other words, we will just about survive and I think that is probably about right.
Very much agree with this. If we dip into it on more than just goal difference, I can't see us pulling ourselves out again. I don't think enough of the squad have shown the fight/desire to do so. Saying that, I do think we'll survive, but it'll be nervy for a long while yet. Fulham's fixture list is a horror show: Man Utd (A), Liverpool (H), WBA (A), Chelsea (H), Cardiff (A), Newcastle (H), Man City (A), Everton (H), Villa (A), Norwich (H), Spurs (A), Hull (H). If orange is a point, and green is three, then they'd add 10 points to their total, finishing on just 29. I don't think that's too unrealistic a prediction either, even if they win every game against opponents outside of the top 7 they're still only going to make 18 more to finish on 37. Cardiff have slightly easier fixtures but not the squad strength to me, West Ham are now missing Carroll for crucial games against Villa, us and Southampton, getting him back for a tough looking March. Palace despite their resurgence are still only a point above the relegation zone, and Swansea may well have just thrown themselves into the mix too.
Players play like they don't have faith in the manager, most of the crowd don't have faith in the manager, manager is tactically inept, Other sides strengthened while we bought in another ageing loan player. Can we fluke another survival? Slim chance, but we are arguably the worse team in this league, we don't deserve to be here.
I have a really really weird feeling that we will beat Man City at the weekend, we are well overdue one of our surprise scalps thus far.
I'm not either, but I'm going to put a bet down having seen their recent form. Looks like I can get 9/1 and I am positive that if we played them nine times at home, we would win at least one of them, so that looks like value to me!
Personally I think we will finish 14th-16th, now that Pilks and Tettey are back we should see things improve. I think it will take them a few games to get back into their stride though.
Decent piece here (although not really anything we didn't know before): http://espnfc.com/blog/_/name/norwichcity/id/1545?&cc=5739 "City have a hellishly difficult run of league fixtures against the title principals during the final month of the season but before then they play seven of the current bottom 10. That brings Hughton and the Canaries into direct contact with rivals who have opted to plot a different course and embrace managerial change. The outcome of such battles will decide who adopted the right strategy."
