[video=youtube;q0Z8t8X2KCo]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0Z8t8X2KCo[/video] THURNBY whisper words of wisdom..#BE
I concur [video=youtube;b3tnw4GJmDo]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3tnw4GJmDo[/video] The same people just doing things to succeed ... RBF take note..
Not a chance I'm afraid and I put the blame squarely at McNally's feet for not having the balls to sack CH sooner i.e before Christmas. McNally has done wonders for our club but this time he has well and truly ****ed up, we need at least another 15 points to survive and there's not a cat in hell's chance of us getting them. You know what? I think deep down all of the 'Hughton inners' probably believe that too. With Citeh getting beat last night by Chelski, we can now look forward to a cricket score on Saturday
You really think 39 points is the absolute minimum for safety this year? Really??? Shows just how much you know I'm afraid, 36 will do it this year.
Realistically I think we'll end up with 34-36 points. 34 won't be enough. 35 probably won't be either. 36 might be enough.
I agree that it will probably be close, but it's ridiculous to suggest we will definitely go down with lots still to play for. I'm sure there are pessimistic fans at about ten clubs who may feel it could be them - we just have to finish above three of them.
34 is the worst case scenario imo, as would represent a prolonged drop in results. we currently have 24 from 24 - to end up with 34 would be 10 points from 14 games. safety would involve both turner and howson back in the next couple of weeks, hughton being able to motivate Wesley and picking up a flukey win, hopefully at Villa
?? I want Hughton out, but this post is just illogical KIO. Let me pose a few questions: (1) Where did you come to the conclusion that we need at least 15 points to survive? CT does a pretty thorough analysis which over a couple of years on here have been proven to be quite accurate. CT is usually "conservative" (i.e. suggesting it is harder to stay up than it is) and has consistently lowered expectations. Just because one weekend out of nearly the whole season there were two or three freak results which went against us, doesn't mean that they will all go against us from now on. That is completely ridiculous. Personally, a glance at each team's fixture list means I think 11 or 12 points will do it. We're currently in 15th with 14 (fourteen) matches to play for, so there's definitely a cat's chance in hell, and a damn sight more. In fact, I'd go as far as to say I am 80% positive we will survive even keeping Hughton and I don't think our chances, at this stage, would necessarily be better if he was replaced. (2) I assume "not a cat in hell's chance" was just for effect? Because that's just not true. (3) Do you really believe that before our team sets foot on the pitch we will have definitely lost against Man City by a significant margin? If that's the case, no wonder our team is doing badly! Don't get me wrong, I think we'll lose, and there is a very good chance we will lose heavily, but the idea that this is our "destiny" just doesn't stack up. We have conceded three goals at home only twice this season - once in an unfortunate loss to Chelsea and the other time in a spanking of Bury. We've only conceded two goals twice - once to high flying Everton and the other time to Fulham from two screamers. Man City have actually had a mini dip in form - if you watched their matches against Watford or Tottenham, you would have seen that this Chelsea result was likely. Outplayed by a mid-table Championship team for the first half, an extremely bad offside call followed by an implosion by Tottenham belied the fact that Tottenham were the stronger team at the outset. Don't get me wrong, I think we'll lose, but I see plenty of reasons to think if we play well we could keep damage to a minimum and even give ourselves the chance of nicking a point. (4) looking at the chart above, do you really believe these Hughton inners are lying and think we will survive? I'm not an inner, and I can see plenty of votes saying we will survive. Apart from having watched our performances and looking at this so-called "nightmare run-in", the stats are against those who think we will go down. Look at the teams below and around us to see what fixtures they have - we have far from the worst set of fixtures. And the run-in is undoubtedly dreadful, but equally that means we have easier matches earlier, and as last year proved there is always the chance that one of those teams will be "on the beach" - so if anything it could well be the best time to play them! Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that we'll definitely survive, but I think you are massively panicking and desperately need to calm down. The last person that needs to be blamed is McNally and I think you're making a big mistake there, though. I don't imagine you know the realities (and costs) associated with firing Hughton - McNally has shown himself a shrewd operator. There is nothing to suggest he has made a mistake yet. I think he should have fired Hughton in December, but I'm conscious that my knowledge is limited and it is certainly far too early to tell if this is the case
Put it another way, if people want encouragement... Let's check out remaining fixtures of other teams and assess where they are likely to be: (1) Fulham have a horrible set of fixtures between now and the end of March, followed by a series of "nicer" fixtures. Unless they seriously pick up in form over the next eight weeks, I can't see them getting more than 14 points, the vast majority coming in those final few matches. My guess 31-33 points. Best case scenario: 36 points. (2) Cardiff have a real mixed bag - nice fixture followed by nasty fixture for basically the rest of the season. They need to get points on the board fast though, because other than a flukey win against us, they really haven't got momentum. They've got a reasonable run of fixtures in February and April, which is where the majority of their points will come from. My guess: 32-34 points. Best case scenario: 36 points. (3) West Ham have their best run of fixtures over the next couple of months, with a run-in nearly as bad as ours, rescued by a home game against Palace. Unfortunately, the one player to seemingly make their team tick has got himself suspended for their next three matches. My guess: 34-36 points. Best case scenario: 39 points. (4) Hull have a horror show of fixtures for the rest of the season. Their best hopes of multiple points are at home to West Brom, Swansea and Southampton, none of whom are pushovers as we know. Away games will be crucial for stopping other teams get points, particularly their competitors (which doesn't include us due to having played them twice). A bit of momentum with an away win might see them over the line, but I strongly doubt it. My guess: 31-33 points. Best case scenario: 37 points. (5) Sunderland have an unpleasant ride for a few weeks after Saturday's home game to Hull and in April, so keeping the board ticking over during those tough runs will be essential. Performances have been there and Poyet has got the team playing again, but heads could drop again easily, though I suspect they won't. Let's not forget the curse of being a cup winner also must be a concern, should they by some miracle beat Man City next month. My guess: 37-39 points. Best case scenario: 42 points. (6) Palace have a mixed bag of fixtures with a tough run-in where there is real potential for survival matches v West Ham and Fulham. Results have really picked up, but they will need to continue to play there hearts out and get a bit of luck. My guess: 34-36 points. Best case scenario 38 points. (7) West Brom have possibly the best run of fixtures and while they have three of the top six or so in their last five matches, there are plenty of other opportunities to pick up points unless it really does go terribly wrong. They are also the only club in the bottom half who have managed to pick up points against the top half on a reasonably good basis. My guess: 40-42 points. Best case scenario: 44 points. (8) Swansea have a run of fixtures almost as nice as West Brom, though they do have Europe to contend in which would be a concern. There biggest problem, though, is current form, which must be close to the worst in the league, and internal strife. If they can pick this up, as long as they gain points over the next couple of months to keep themselves in the mix, their run-in should mean they are comfortably safe. My guess: 38-40 points. Best case scenario: 45 points. (9) Stoke have some tough fixtures left, with a few over the next couple of weeks and again in April. Their form has been mixed too, but a fantastic win at home to Man U in terrible conditions belied the fact that they are not a cohesive squad. Keeping Begovic fit is a must, and it says a lot when your key player is your goalkeeper. That being said, if they can take heart from the Man U win and carry that over the next few matches, they should have enough to get them over the line. My guess 35-37 points. Best case scenario: 40 points. I won't assess ours as that would be too contentious(!) but the key thing to remember from the above is that if just one team achieves the "best case scenario", that will be assuming they beat two or three of the others on here, which will prevent them from getting their "best case scenario". It could therefore, oddly, be in our interests for Hull and Cardiff to get their best case scenarios. Basically, I can only see six of these nine teams getting more than 34 points, and possibly only three getting more than 36 points. I think if we can manage 37 points, we will be around 13th or 14th, possibly higher.
interesting Rob. if you look on the hull board there is a thread on who goes down, nearly all predict us but only one or two them.
Had a quick look and a surprisingly high number do vote us, probably more than half. Most of them cite bad form and bad manager, but funnily enough we're actually 14th in the form guide, and 12th for both away form and home form (our form is strong over the last twelve matches!!). Given that this was immediately after our ****show against Cardiff, that's hardly surprising that their fans are quick to go by what they have recently seen.
But if KIO considered all those factors he wouldn't be able to spew over the top hysteria about how we are the worst team to ever play football, Hughton couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery and McNally has actually been undercover, getting our hopes to the highest they have been for many years before making the malicious decision to keep Hughton on so he'll take us all the way down to the Conference!
maybe the tide has turned, some good news (although harsh on carroll, funny nontheless) http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/26039222
Ladbrookes offering 7/2 on city to go down? Easy money for the serious punter. Please note I have not taken this offer..... Yet
So basically Ladbrokes are offering a 28.6% chance that Norwich will go down. But the bookie always wins, so presumably they are calculating even less chance than that? And yes, yes, I know that odds are about who is betting on it, not what the actual chances are, but we shouldn't lost sight of the fact that they still remain a pretty good general perception of what the chances are.
I tell you this chippy, I can ALWAYS pick the winners out at the bookies until I actually put money on, then they ALWAYS lose! I think I'll have a punt on City to go down!
