5.00 Meydan Educate 11/1 Very much looking forward to the return of one of my favourite horses in Educate tomorrow on what will be his Dubai debut for UAE native Ismail Mohammed and I definitely think this 5 year old can leave his mark on the Dubai Carnival. Very progressive last year, he started off last season by winning the Spring Mile at Doncaster off a mark of 88 and ended it with a brilliant victory in the incredibly competitive Cambridgeshire under a big weight off a mark of 104 which has already been franked strongly several times since. With regards to tomorrow's contest, Educate faces his most difficult task to date stepped up into Group 2 Company for the first time and he may well need the run but there is no doubt in my there is more to come from him. William Buick is an eye catching booking with Johnny Murtagh not over in Dubai and he's drawn well in stall 2 which should give him plenty of cover which he'll definitely need. All in all, I'd be more hopeful than confident of Educate's chances tomorrow given that Ismail Mohammed isn't in great form in Dubai at the moment and with another 2 months of the Carnival left I'd be pretty surprised if he was 100% wound up for this. With some very decent horses in opposition, including the race fit favourite Mushreq, Educate will need to put in a career best performance if he is to land this but at 11/1 he's definitely worth a small play. Given that Ismail Mohammed was leading trainer at the Carnival in 2007 with 16 winners, he clearly knows how to campaign his horses to great effect and at the very least I expect to see an encouraging performance from Educate on what I think will turn out to be a very successful campaign in Dubai.
Meydan 2.40 Masamah 7/1 3.15 Intrigo 6/1 3.50 Flotilla 5/2 5.00 Mushreq 4/1 NAP (Jailcase - Shrewdies on at 5s, should be no bigger than 9/4)
I'm looking to the 14.10 Wincanton where the current odds offer a risky hedging bet tomorrow. Ainsi Fideles 2 points at 9/2 Shantou Magic 1 point at 6/1
Mireya 7/2 Thurles 3:35 put this one up last day where the trainers daughter gave the horse an absolute shocking ride which was subsequently looked into. Now she is jocked off I think this horse will take all the beating if rode nearer the pace, the extra 2 furlongs ought to help and conditions are ideal. Big run expected and i'll be bitterly dissapointed if Mireya can't win this.
14.40 Meydan- Merhee- 4/1 Abit of a gamble these sprints but Merhee looked ahead of his mark for much of his reappearance last week. He travelled very powerfuly when second to Jamsie last week, but now this over the grass he will have come on for the run last week and looks to go one better and claim the gold.
I like SHANTOU MAGIC tomorrow Ron. Will handle the ground and has only been beaten by very good horses when losing!
2.10 Wincanton VEAUCE DE SIVOLA 8/1 Heavy ground and a fair pace on should see this horse in a much more positive light and off a mark of 114 is vastly underestimated by the handicapper. It ran Seventh Sign (now rated 130ish) to a neck on debut when an unlucky loser, and had Captain Cardington 4L back in 3rd, who was rated 122. With improvement to come (VDS was very green), I would say this horse is a stone well in with the possibility of slightly more when reverting to chasing. Tailor made action for testing ground- I'd be extremely disappointed if this can't go close.
With the going at Wincanton tomorrow likely to be on the boggy side of heavy I'l have a little dabble on Bertie Boru @ 6s in the 2.40. Brian Boru progeny do seem to appreciate some give in the ground and there will be plenty on offer tomorrow. Good luck all having a go.
Can't really see it to be honest. Venetia has gotten him only 4lb above the mark he won the Byrne Group Plate last year and he took this contest in last year as a prep to that (pulled up in this last year). Surely another underwhelming performance would get him dropped another 1lb or 2lb and give him a belting chance at winning it for the 2nd year running. Venetia wouldn't ruin the handicap mark of the only horse that provided her with a Cheltenham Festival win last year?
Master of glesga/meydan same place nearly. Ive made a $ or 2 from your pickings like sticks i will follow u without question. BUT!!!!!!! Did anyone else want to acknowledge my 1st ever advised treble jokin aside genesis sky arts worth a wee download
5.00 Meydan Trade Storm @ 7/1 Third behind the best miler in the world in Wise Dan at Woodbine. His recent Meydan form is superb where he was a fast finishing fourth in the Dubai Duty Free(G1) Should have too much class for this bunch. 30Mar13 Mey 9Gd G1 1840K 9-0 4/14 (2¾L Sajjhaa 8-9) 4/1F Jamie Spencer 116 02Mar13 Mey 8Gd G2 92K 9-2 1/8 (1½L Musir 9-2) 5/2 Jamie Spencer 112 14Feb13 Mey 9Gd Hc 64K 8-9 1/12 (3¾L Anaerobio 8-6) 9/1 Jamie Spencer 104
Surely 2.00 Southwell Gebayl 20/1 is worth backing purely from a back to lay perspective. Priced up at 20s with Bet365, this is in stark contrast to other bookies who go no bigger than 7/1 and it seems inevitable that the horse is going to start a single figure price. Additionally, this 4 year old doesn't look a forlorn hope either off a mark of 57 on her first start for Roger Ingram. When with James Tate, she showed some excellent course form with a record of 2-2-2-1 which included a nose 2nd off a mark of 60 to Apache Rising who is now rated 17lb higher having scored comfortably at Southwell twice subsequently, a 2nd behind the higher rated Fraserburgh, 2nd behind the well handicapped Ivy Port before winning a very poor Maiden and its clear that she acts very well on Southwell's fibresand. Having left James Tate, Gebayl had 3 utterly abysmal starts for Olivia Maylam which have seen her fall to a career low mark of 57. If the switch of stable, 91 day break, the application of a first time tongue tie and return to Southwell's fibresand see her return to form then she could run a huge race here. I've had a decent bet on at Bet365 as they have completely priced her up wrong at 20/1 and I fully intend to lay off my bet for what is hopefully a lovely free bet. I wouldn't be anything other than hopeful but I'd be utterly stunned if I can't lay my bet off at a single figure price.
One thing that amazes me about Pricewiseâs ante-post portfolio for the Festival this time around is that in nominating Rule The World he has for the second time in the matter of less than a month tipped something that his âstablemateâ in the Weekender has tipped in the same race, and at a bigger price, a week or a fortnight before. Really does need to change his old moniker if someone in the same building has already put up the same horse at bigger odds! There really does look little value in the âWorld Hurdleâ at the minute as currently you have the remarkable occurrence of 7, yes 7, animals being quoted at single figure odds!
Extra card added on Saturday, people – all-weather fixture at Wolverhampton. Plus, I see that Sandown Park are very, very fearful re their ability to stage hurdle races on Saturday and so 3 extra chases now added to their card. It’s expected if they do race it will be chases only that day. Not good news for dear old Pip Hobbs who had hoped to get Fingal Bay back out over hurdles.
Its the usual story - just had the tip from a friend - seems the trainer cannot see this out of the frame ... and may well have progressed enough to win ? currently 5/1 so a tiny bit of cover for the e/w thieves .. good luck ... ROTO .. you are the Irish form master .. any thoughts ?
ROTO, Educate actually ran in the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood, under Hanagan. I feel certain he is upto that level and was ultimately only beaten 4 lengths in that Group 2 and you can argue he improved in winning the Cambridgeshire. The race in Meydan today features a few of my favourite horses from last year, including Maputo and Educate. Steeler was also coming along very nicely before the MAZ scandal. Looks an awfully difficult race, that is open for winning. I'll probably have a little go on Maputo and Educate, Steeler certainly has a big chance on the back of his return to action.
