REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL, PART 1. GUARANTEED TO MAKE YOU FEEL HAPPIER.., Please trust me, continue to read this and you will feel a lot happier as a Jack Bastard. I, Swimaway the keyboard warrior apologies, but the following is a plagiurised and amended statistical analysis of relegated and promoted teams in the Premier League over the last 18 seasons. Bottom line is, the following is FACT. All stats below go back to the beginning of the 20 team era in the Premier League, which began with the 1995/96 campaign. Pertaining to this season it makes worrying reading for Palace, West Ham, Sunderland, Stoke, Fulham, Norwich and particularily CARDIFF fans. On average, relegated sides during this period have finished with 37 goals scored, 67 goals conceded, and a goal difference of -30. The most goals ever scored by a relegated side were Blackpool’s 55 in the 2010/11 campaign. The fewest goals conceded by a relegated side were Birmingham City’s 50 in the 2005/06 campaign. In contrast, 17th placed teams averaged 39 goals scored and 60 goals shipped. The most ever scored by a 17th place team were West Ham’s 47 in 2009/10, the fewest ever shipped were Bolton’s 51 in 2002/03. Statistically speaking therefore, if a team can score 40 goals, while conceding no more than 60 or thereabouts, they are a good bet for survival. SO WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE US?? We have already scored 29 goals and just conceded 33, with 15 games to go. These are games when we are meeting teams within the lower echelons....AND WE ONLY NEED TO SCORE 9 GOALS TO SURVIVE!! DONT GET CARRIED AWAY.., Feel sorry for the side that, according to the science, is guaranteed relegation because of this. After 2/3 of the season gone, poor Cardiff have only scored 17 times (just 22 goals to score in the next 15 games then!). Unfortunately, they also have conceded 40 goals MAKING A MINUS 23 goal difference, which on a pro rata basis means...... .... THEY ARE STATISTICALLY f**kED!! I IMPLORE YOU NOT TO USE THIS REALITY TO WIND UP OUR NEIGHBOURS.. PROMISE*
I have to be honest, I cannot see them surviving at all. They just ain't scoring goals, and if your not scoring goals, your not winning games. They have also had the luxury of bonus points, wins against City, draws v Everton, Man Utd, so 5 points which should have been written off pre season, so they have only taken 13 points against teams around them. That's not good enough. I can only see them picking up 12 points from their remaining fixtures too, which would leave them on 30. Which would be on par with their current average actually. Which is 0.78 per game, with a total of 29.74 points. I think they are screwed. Along with Sunderland and West Ham, think those 3 will be the ones going down (maybe fulham for west ham) but Sunderland and Cardiff are my definite choices. As Sunderland have to play 9 (current) top half teams in their final 15, thats a horrible run for them.
A lot can change after the transfer window closes. With Zaha and Kenwynne Jones coming in that can make a huge difference with pace out wide and a decent target man to get on the end of productive balls should surely improve their goals scored by seasons end. Its just so tight down the bottom 1 or 2 wins on the bounce can make a huge difference. Apparently they did ok at OT last night against lesser teams they just might do ok. Look at Palace who would have thought less than 6 weeks ago they would be looking at a mid table finish. Its all about momentum from this month onwards and I think its too close to call!! That said I think it will be between Stoke, Fulham, Sunderland and West Brom. Cardiff haven't got a bad run in compared to those.
It's all very well basing relegated teams on goals scored, goals conceded and goal difference (and I'm not disputing your figures) but it's points that count. Palace have become quite adept lately of winning a game 1-0. That's 3 points in the bag and it doesn't matter if they get stuffed 0-5 the next game against a big team which means they don't score many, have a poor goal difference yet still rack up points
This is looking like a freak season and impossible to call (just) yet. As Bap says, I thought Palace were gone, end of, but now look like they'll stay up. It's going to be fun! Especially as we won't be involved
I think Cardiff will get relegated, but too early to get too smug. Looking better than before the Fulham match though. Regarding stats, there's a first time for everything. The past is often no guide to the future.
It's all still in the melting pot. Any of the teams below us could go on a run and there is often a team from the middle that goes into freefall. We have a lot to do to be safe ourselves and any team that is in the bottom half right now is pretty vulnerable. We need to keep notching the odd win and draw (away) to put a decent gap between us and the relegation spots and I won't be happy until we get at least 38 points under our belt.
I tend to agree , I did say we need at least 5 more wins imo and we have Cardiff, Palace, West Brom, Norwich and Villa at home and Sunderland away, as the last game of the season . These are winnable and hopefully will see us safe.
Past performance or statistics can only be considered as a guide at this moment in time, while Cardiff are propping up the table with some convincing stats against them, they have strengthened well in the transfer window, and if they can get an early win to build on, then things can change quickly, just look at Sunderland now picking up results with Poyet? The way I see it, there will be quite a number of teams in the mix right up until the last game of the season, going to be really difficult one to call this season!..................
Yep, they really are doing well in the transfer market... http://www1.skysports.com/football/...andreas-cornelius-set-to-rejoin-fc-copenhagen
It's looking like Michu might play a part in the derby game which, if nothing else, will create even more of a buzz for us. Seems Lukaku's "out for weeks" now, so surely will miss the FA Cup game hopefully (no offence). Everton away's not looking as bad as I first imagined. This win over Fulham could well be a turning point when we look back at the end of the season.
They rolled themselves. Now FC København can get the powerful goals from this rough diamond Again...
nice bit of profit if you can get it.....Tan is an idiot and im just waiting to see who gets the sack for this.. Another two losses and oly could be on his way as tan has brought back DJ into the fold as an advisory...
