I think there are 2 things to mention about HFs defeat at the hands of Rock On Ruby in the 2012 Champion Hurdle - firstly, HF missed his traditional early season engagements that season and was not seen until the Irish Champion Hurdle at the end of January. He won that well enough but I think his lack of preparation told at Cheltenham. Secondly, Ruby rode him as he had always ridden him, namely held up off the pace and ready to pounce with his turn of foot. Crucially (and cleverly) Noel Fehily had blunted his turn of foot that day with the brutal early pace and HF couldn't land a blow up the hill. Ruby learnt a lesson from that and made sure he was closer to Rock On Ruby coming to the foot of the hill in the 2013 renewal. Ruby was after HF at the end of the back straight that day, and I remember Simon Holt saying he wasn't really travelling. But I think this was just a case of Ruby asking his horse to close up on ROR and he duly did this, sweeping past him on the final bend and bounding clear up the hill. A masterful ride by Ruby and revenge over ROR. I saw an interview with Ruby recently where he said "If I'd rode him differently that day he'd already be a triple champion hurdle winner". You can't under-estimate the Ruby effect here - he knows the horse so well, knows Cheltenham so well, he is worth half a dozen lengths at least IMHO.
I very much hope you're right Oddy. And, despite having backed Hurricane Fly at stupidly short odds many times in his career, I must confess that my opinion is probably affected by the fact that of Hurricane Fly's 3 Champion Hurdle runs, I have backed him only the time he didn't win. And, it's definitely true that the Ruby effect is a big factor - but Ruby is always on The Fly, so you have to think that Ruby has been a contribution to the Fly's career to date - it's not like we can say 'Hurricane Fly has done all this, but Now he'll have Ruby as well'. At the end of the day, you're probably right. I'm probably trying to find an angle where non exists - something I'm guilty of more often than I'd like. And if you are right, there'll be no one more pleased than me to see HF hack up.
Regarding the 2012 season, Hurricane Fly's very laboured win over Zaidpour at the Punchestown Festival confirmed to me he wasn't right that season. I therefore very much doubt he was at his best at Cheltenham that March.
Nigel Twiston Davies and Nicky Henderson spotted after watching Sundays Irish Champion Hurdle. please log in to view this image please log in to view this image
Love the discussion on this thread. Hurricane Fly comes in as the Irish favourite, beating Jezki and beating Our Conor. Dessie Hughes says Our Conor is still improving and wont be cherry ripe until March. Willie says HF did his worst ever piece of work last week- and still won. My Tent Or Yours has beaten The New One, but the fact TNO got within less than a length of him at Kempton- a track tailor made for a speed ball like The Tent, actually puts TNO in an amazing position come March IMO. I dont see how a hill is going to allow Tent to ever outbattle The New One as long as Sam Twiston Davies doesn't commit too far out. I think the Champion is between 3- The New One, Hurricane Fly, Our Conor. I just want them all to turn up. Would be amazing if Annie Power and Un De Sceaux came into this too. It would for me be the best spectacle since the 2011 Supreme Novice.
Decent summary this. I would only add that but for making an absolute horlicks of the last TNO beats the MTOY lto. A couple of things regarding last years Neptune form. Easy to dismiss the race as poor but Pont Alexandre was a lot of shrewd judges idea of the Irish banker of the meeting. Been off the track since. Also history would judge Istabraq and Hardy Eustace's novice wins at the festival as not being up to much if you look at the subsequent achievements of the vanquished. If TNO can brush up his scruffy jumping he'll take all the beating IMO. A cracker of a race and only 6 weeks to wait!
The stamina from the Neptune-esque races seems to be a very good tool in a future Champion Hurdler's locker. Istabraq, Rock On Ruby, Peddlers Cross, Hardy Eustace all either ran well in or won that race before posting super Champion Hurdle efforts, whilst Brave Inca, Hurricane Fly also proved they could stay 2 and a half themselves prior to winning the blue ribband event. One thing I noted was that out of the multiple winners (Istabraq/Hurricane/Hardy Eustace)- they were all horses who proved their stamina. An interesting idea might be that all out speed horses, who only win at the 2m minimum trip, might be worth taking on after their first Champion Hurdle win. I'd be interested to have a look back through time
Toppy, you're mostly right. Most Champion Hurdle winners had the stamina to win over 2.5 miles, although some would question the stamina required to win over that distance in the Aintree Hurdle. Thinking back, however, I don't think successive Champion Hurdle winners, Bula and Sea Pigeon, won over 20 furlong hurdles. There are probably others. As far as I know, the Champion Hurdle, Supreme Novices, and Neptune, have always been run on the Old Course which is more demanding than the New Course for hurdlers. The latter only has 2 hurdles for the last 7 furlongs and isn't as demanding, jumping wise, when the tap's turned on. It's a real enigma, though. A 20 furlong flat horse can win a Champion Hurdle (Magic Court) but so can a six furlong sprinter (Anzio). As I see it, the big tactical question is how far out you commit a horse. Horses can lose at Cheltenham through 'disappointing them,' but they also lose through going too early and getting caught up the hill. In my opinion, this year is a no brainer where Annie Power is concerned. With the mares' allowance, she should take her chance and make use of her stamina. The sketchy form line with Zarkandar gives her a chance anyway, given her weight pull. She is obviously improving and has scope to do even better. There's loads of World Hurdles and Mares Hurdles in the future, if she's not up to it. I'd love to know what Ruby Walsh really thinks of her chances. I also think Our Conor ran really well last weekend, given the historical poor performance of past second season/ 5 year olds. He has a shout, undoubtedly, and seems to be going the right way. You have to feel that he and Annie are the ones with most scope in the Champion field.
At least Annie has proved she has the speed to win at 2 miles and the stamina to win at 20f. I don't think she has proved she will stay 3miles. Someone (Joe I think) mentioned Annie would be Timeform top rated. Given she is improving she has to have a great chance in the Champion, especially if it comes up soft. On a sound surface she might be tapped for toe.
Re old boy Hurricane Fly there are 2 ways of looking at his form this term: (i) he has twice beaten the ‘star’ novices from last term Our Connor and Jetski and this shows that he not only has the ability to defeat the established animals once again but also the up and coming young brigade, or (ii) he has regressed big time of late. In November he struggled to beat the 138 rated Marito (by 1.25 lengths off levels) and the 147 rated Mikael (by 2 lengths off levels). Meanwhile, in 2 subsequent runs against the 149 rated 13YO Captain Cee Bee off levels he has beat him respectively 9.5 lengths and 2.75 lengths. The reading of these formlines proves nothing but regression. It is upheld, or at least, made to look respectable by him beating both Our Connor and Jetski. But are these no more than former ace novices who look good bullying young novices but can’t cut it in the ‘big league’?!? I’m personally tempted to go for option 2 rather than 1, people.
Check my post further up this thread on the times of his Irish Champion Hurdle wins Sir Barney - that tells exactly the opposite story. Lies, damned lies and Statisctics with a capital "S"
Of course Hurricane Fly has regressed, hes 10yo and he was all out to beat Captain Cee Bee 3 lengths at the weekend. Hurricane Fly is unlucky that injury has stopped him from winning 3 or 4 Champion Hurdles, he should already have equalled the record, but his chance is gone. Just look at Istabraq, I dont think Hurricane Fly is a pulled up job but he wont be winning, I know that. The real Hurricane Fly would not have had to come off the bridle to beat Our Conor round leopardstown, its as simple as that, you could see in the Champion Hurdle last year that he had lost the zip, of course he is still a high class and brave horse but as ive said all season, he is going to be made to look very slow now by the two English horses. Hes 3/1 just now, if I fancied him I would wait till he gets a reminder at the top of the hill when TNO and MY Tent are pulling trains and back him at 14/1.
Your comparing two staying chasers to a 2 mile hurdler. Knockara Beau didnt step onto a racetrack until he was 5yo and according to the handicapper only ran to his usual mark anyway. Kauto won two races as an 11yo because of his superior jumping, he was pulled up in the gold cup and I dont think anyone would argue he was anywhere near the horse he was as 8/9yo. Jump bred staying chasers probably dont peak for those races until they are about 9yo, history shows that horses are at their most effective for 2 mile hurdle races when a fair bit younger.
So if we use Captain Cee Bee as a yardstick Hurricane Fly has regressed 6.5 lengths in a month and 32 lengths in a year. Using the same yardstick (Captain Cee Bee) the young and improving Our Conor, who was badly in need of the run over Christmas, has also REGRESSED by 2.5 lengths in the same month between the Ryanair Hurdle and the Irish Champion - finished 3.75 lengths in front of Captain Cee Bee in the Ryanair but only 1.25 lengths in front of him in the Irish Champion Hurdle. All I can conclude is that Hurricane Fly and Our Conor were out on the piss together last mid-week. And whilst Hurricane Fly is regressing, we hear from pundits galore that Our Conor put up a much better performance this time around and he is SURE to like Cheltenham better than the Fly because Our Conor slammed a crap Triumph Hurdle field whereas Hurricane Fly has only won 2 Champion Hurdles there Stands to reason. As does the fact that The New One, who has lost 2 of his last 4 races, is home and hosed in the Champion Hurdle. Ah but there were excuses last time cos it was a flat track which suited MTOY better and yet when TNO slammed Rock On Ruby at Kempton he was the next fecking Pegasus. After the way MTOY failed to get past Champagne Fever up the hill last March I will also show you my arse if he wins a Champion Hurdle. So that's already Annie Power and MTOY I'm showing my arse for I may add The New One when he gets beat at Wincanton
2 10yos in the history of the race, Sea Pigeon and Hattons Grace who are both also the only 11yo winners, they are exceptions to the rule, look at the vast vast majority of the great 2 mile hurdlers and you will see 5/6/7 is when they won their champions. Hurricane Fly would have been good enough to win Champion Hurdles as a 5/6yo if he wasnt injured, which Sea Pigeon wasnt, and im assuming Hattons Grace wasnt either, if Hurricane Fly wins this years race as a 10yo you can probably say there has never been a better 2 mile hurdler because he could quite conceivably have won 4 already, and hypothetically would have been top of the 2 mile division from 5yo to 10yo which has never been done before apparently. IT CANNOT BE DONE
If you use Captain as the yardstick then either last years novices were crap with a line through Jezki and the juveniles not much better or they've all regressed or Captain's improved. If they're all crap TNO is also crap through Jezki and MTOY. If they're all crap, all regressive or all underperforming we've got nowt to look forward to and if we have nowt to look forward to why are we all posting so much about the race?
