12.40 Cheltenham: RONALDINHO 22/1 e.w Alan King had an outsider run really well at big odds today at Huntingdon and he feels much more positive about his string now. Ronaldinho has hopes at big odds for a few reasons. Firstly, his debut, on 28 December, was at a time where Kings horses were well out of form. Add in to the fact that juvenile hurdlers improve from nowhere from first to second start (Vicenzo Mio, Zarkandar, Grandouet), as well as being sired by last years Triumph winning sire, JEREMY, and we have an interesting one on our hands. King is traditionally a trainer who holds some nice juvenile hurdlers and it is interesting that this one gets pitched into the hottest juvenile race seen in the UK this year. I hope we can get a run for our money at some rewarding odds. 1.50 Cheltenham: OUR MICK He runs off 5lb lower than last year when bang in contention prior to a mishap 3 out. Ignore a poor run at Aintree- a course never likely to suit him- and he can bounce back in first time blinkers at a track he runs well at. 2.25 ROCKY CREEK 6/4 Looks a lovely jumper of a fence and didn't lack stamina in the Hennessey. He ought to relish the stiff test here and looks a worthy favourite. 4.10 Cheltenham: LAC FONTANA If we put a line through his last run, there are some nice performances to take encouragement from for Lac Fontana. He runs off a perch of 127- totally underestimating him in my eyes and he can exploit that by going very, very close at a potentially fair price. Ruacana is top weight and it is a big ask for him giving LF a stone, whilst Amore Alato might struggle to guts this one out up the hill as he did when making all at a flat Kempton. LAY BETS: (Rule is that I never lay anything above 4/1- meaning that I can get 1 in 4 wrong and the worse case scenario is breaking even) REVE DE SIVOLA 7/2- If he beats Boston Bob I would be stunned. If he beats Big Bucks as well then a large picture of my nads will grace the forum at around 4pm tomorrow. And by the way- Boston Bob will be a MAJOR nut to crack tomorrow for Big Bucks and if he does beat him on reappearance then that will confirm his wellbeing. He has a bloody good engine and is a seriously interesting recruit to the World Hurdle for owners that won this with Inglis Drever- but Big Bucks has a better cruising speed if he retains all of it. VICENZO MIO 7/4- He improved form his first run but he beat absolute trees at Kempton. He has work to do to turn form around and there are one or two in here who can improve also.
I really like Jonjo's in the first at HQ tomorrow Toppy - pulled like a mad thing on debut, jumped sloppily and yet still won. Goodwood Mirage. I the 1.50 I really like the booking of Barry Geraghty for Ulck Du Lin. He's dropped to 137 for this which is just 1lb above his last winning mark. Stonking e/w bet. Rocky Creek and Big Bucks double looks like a good thing if you're betting - I'm not, I'm keeping my powder dry for the festival. In the Neptune trial I would dearly like to see Red Sherlock win in the David Johnson colours.
There is a lot of love for Goodwood Mirage on this forum Oddy and undoubtedly he possesses ability. But Jonjo winning a Triumph? He will have to jump a lot, lot better too on the day, although improvement with that is certainly not out of the question! What do you think about Big Bucks mate? Also- Hurricane Fly has suffered a bruised foot this week when putting in some poor pieces of work, but Mullins lets him run: (Source: ATR) Hurricane Fly will have to put a late scare behind him when he bids to claim an historic fourth successive victory in the BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday. The record-breaking 18-times Grade One winner put younger rivals Jezki and Our Conor firmly in their place with a typically brilliant display in the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival, and now aims to join Istabraq by winning this prestigious prize four times. However, the 10-year-old's preparation suffered a minor setback earlier this week because of a bruised foot and with Jezki and Our Conor back for more, trainer Willie Mullins admits his superstar will have to be right on his game if he is to make it eight wins from as many starts at the Foxrock track. "He worked poorly during the week and it turned out he had a bruise on his foot. He seems fine since, so we'll see how he goes," said Mullins. "We could have taken the easy way out and not run, but at the end of the day it's the Irish Champion Hurdle. Sometimes athletes carry bits of injuries into games and we're happy to let him take his chance. "I think he will need to reproduce his best form to win as I would expect both Jezki and Our Conor to come forward from the run at Christmas." Reflecting on Hurricane Fly's Christmas triumph, Mullins added: "It was a fantastic race and tactically it was a great spectacle. Plans A, B and C went out of the window. We didn't envisage we were going to be last jumping the second hurdle and Captain Cee Bee would be 25 lengths in front jumping the third. "It was a real cat and mouse game and Ruby (Walsh) was very cool. As good as the horse was, I thought Ruby was very good on him. He kept a very cool head in the circumstances. He is used to it I suppose." The same trio do battle again, along with admirable veteran and likely front-runner Captain Cee Bee, but this time on a tighter circuit than the one they faced over the festive period. Walsh feels the switch of track could play a crucial part in the outcome of the race. He told Racing UK: "He hasn't won 18 Grade Ones for no reason. He's won them because he's a very, very good horse. On Sunday in Leopardstown we'll be on the inner track, which is a sharper, speedier track. If you look at it coldly, it probably suits me a bit better. You'd be hoping Hurricane is going to hold them off again."
Big Bucks wins, no doubt. I'm self-excluded from betting at the moment which is doing me good but 10/11 about BB tomorrow is just screaming to be backed - he should be 1/4. The Fly is Ok I reckon, they wouldn't risk him otherwise. Wins well Sunday I reckon. Also hope Defy Logic can win the Irish Arkle - lovely horse.
A bruised foot can be quickly cured and have no affect on his running. Whether he missed vital training would be more of a concern.
Very very tricky tomorrow, but here's what i'm going with: Chelts 1240- Le Rocher 150- Wishfull thinking 225- Rock creek 410- Amore Alato 1255 Don- Rock On Ruby 240- Timeremembered 325 Leo- Snake Eyes
12.40 Cheltenham - Goodwood Mirage 9/2 - Showed his class in the last race, pulled like a mad man, jumped like a dog but his flat speed showed on the run in to get up in the shadow of the post. That run would have helped a ton and hopefully they have schooled him a bit more. Kentucky Hyden has been very consistent but seems a little short of grade 1 class. Beat absolutely nothing on his sole victory and then finished close 2nd twice on final 2 runs behind 2 re opposing rivals, the form doesnt look top class though. TC made a good write up on Ronaldinho and ill have a small saver on him. 1.15 Cheltenham - Renard D'Irlande 8/1 EW - The Venetia Williams/Coleman partnership is on fire at present with another double today. Her horses seem to love testing conditions. Renard D'Irlande finished 2nd although by 19l to Vino Griego in this race last year and arrives here just 3 lbs higher than that run. Last years renewal was very hot and countless winners have come out of that race including Battlegroup and Johns Spirit who are now rated 150 and 148 with the winner upto 157. Made an appearance 2 weeks ago when well backed but unseating after the 6th fence. They will be looking for some compensation today. 1.50 Cheltenham - Shangani 6/1 2.25 Cheltenham - Rocky Creek 6/4 - Its impossible to go against Rocky Creek here. Is 2lbs worse off from Houblon Des Obeaux for 15lengths in the Hennesey which shouldnt be an issue. Beat the same horse in a grade 2 off level weights at Ascot at 3 miles and the extra 2 furlong again will benefit Rocky Creek more. My main danger would be Harry Topper, however the horses jumping can seriously let it down at times although there is no denying he is very good. Beat Rocky Creek at level weights last year but has to concede 5 today and would need a foot perfect round of jumping to win here. 3.00 Cheltenham - Regal Diamond 12/1 EW - He ran over course and distance last time out against Aubusson and looked to enjoy the step up in trip. Jumped a few of the hurdles pretty poorly particularly in the beginning of the race but started to jump with more fluency as the race went on. Stayed on gamely throughout and was only beating 2 lengths. Meets Aubusson again 7lbs better off and that alone should put him in the mix. Rathvinden was struggling a fair bit out before tipping over against Deputy Dan and would need a big improvement to mix today. Red Sherlock could be anything, hard to judge the form of his 2 runs so far and im willing to take him on. 3.35 Cheltenham - At Fishers Cross 7/1 EW - Conditions will be pretty tough again here and i can see Reve De Sivola attempt to make all like his win in the Long Hurdle to try take the sting out of the others in particular Big Bucks if he is not quite 100%. AFC has had his problems this year there is no denying it, his jumping has went from decent last year to terrible in his 2 runs so far this season. They are blaming it on an issue with arthritis which they hope they have managed to at least ease with treatment recently. If you watch his last run he was slow/niggly at most of the hurdles yet he was still tanking away behind RDS and only started to struggle with a couple to jump. The ability is clearly there and if he is back to the same horse as last year then this could be 1 of the races of the season so far. Boston Bob albeit a brilliant horse will be done for pace here and they should have went for the Gold Cup in my opinion. Big Bucks of course is the hero, we all wish he is still the same horse as old and would not surprise me to see him bolt up in this but i cant be backing a horse after over 400 days off with injury on his comeback run. 4.10 Cheltenham - Lac Fontana 7/1 - Was tried in the Triumph last year only to struggle 1 out to finish a tired 8th however every horse that finished ahead of him is now rated 140 or higher and the handicapper seems to have let him in lightly here off a mere 127. Didnt run his race against the liquidator last time out and that run can be forgiven. 12.55 Doncaster - Valdez 7/2 - Cant be having Rock on Ruby at 6/4 in this. The prices definitely reflects hurdles rating, he jumped quite nicely apart 1 fence on debut however the proximity to the horse who finished behind doesnt suggest to me it was a very fast pace, however his jumping will definitely be tested here and im taking Valdez, who has already proved to jump very soundly to get the better of the former Champion Hurdler. Im not sure why Fox Appeal has been dropped in trip as he has been running superbly at 2 and a half and would have aboslutely no chance at 2 miles here especially given 3 lbs away to his main rivals. 2.40 Doncaster - Urban Hymm 10/3 - Steps up to 3m for the first time along with a few others in the race. Was beaten 2 runs ago by Spirit of Shankly and he has since come out and ran a stormer in the Lanzarote Hurdle. 3rd that day has won since also. Urban Hymm has the same sire as Sir Des Champs and the step up in trip shouldnt be an issue. Demolished the field in his last run at Haydock and also receives a handy couple of Lbs from Timesremembered. 3.15 Doncaster - Mart Lane 9/1 EW Snake Eyes is a handicap plot waiting to happen and he runs 3.25 Leopardstown, maybe today is the day?
Ridiculous, I can't believe its odds against, something has to go seriously wrong tomorrow for it not to win
Here's my initial selections for tomorrow, excluding the Skybet, for which I'm waiting to see what Brough picks (he's sneaky, that Brough Tiger, and wants the top slot back!) I won't be backing all these (probably ) but I seem to have gone for a few that have already been given the nod on here. Chelt 12-40 Goodwood Mirage 13-15 Samingarry 13-50 Shangani 14-25 Rocky Creek 15-00 Regal Diamond 15-35 At Fishers Cross Leopard 15-25 Snake Eyes Don 12-25 Hidden Justice 13-30 Bellenos 14-40 Urban Hymn Snake Eyes is a bit of a leap of faith, inasmuch as the forum's favourite trainer must have sent him there for as reason, and I'm hoping it's because he is going to win! I am also risking that Hidden Justice in the 12-25 Don will return to form with a bang, 12-1 currently At Chelts I too think that Rocky Creek is a wheelbarrow job and although I'm sure that Big Bucks will be fit and ready to run, I might take a small punt on At Fishers Cross showing some improvement and getting back to his best. I acknowledge the respective chances of Red Sherlock and Rathvinden but I think that Regal Diamond has been overlooked to a degree. He has a 15lb turnaround with 3rd fav Aubusson and at 12-1 could be good ew, albeit only 7 runners. Oddy - kudos to you if you manage to maintain your equine celebacy - I'd be fidgetting like a schoolboy if I had to watch the racing without taking part EDIT: You posted while I was still typing Wardy - I'm not sponging, honest! Re: that turnaround between Regal Diamond and Aubusson - I was including the riders allowance last time ..... otherwise - great minds and all that
2 fancies at Donny tomorrow - Arnaud in the Grade 2 Novice Chase and Cantillon's Elegant Stride in the bumper.
My thoughts this evening 12.40 Vincenzo Mio - travelled really well at HQ on penultimate start before not getting up the hill. Tomorrow he has fitness and I think he will win quite convincingly. The worry for me might be Goodwood Mirage if that horse has learn't how to hurdle. 1.15 This could turn into a war of attrition, and I think experience could prove invaluable and staying power too. As such I really like Ohio Gold, who is quite similar to last years winner Vino Griego, second season novice who needs everything to fall into place. I think they will go quick enough and he could stay past all of these. Samingarry would be the danger for me, but I hope he gets overbet with AP onboard. I am hoping for a drift on the selection with a few of these being horses that could get punted. 1.50 Torn on this one, already backed Our Mick at 8s, and I really like the chances of both Tap Night and the old boy Wishfull Thinking. I think a bet on Tap Night might be in the offing if he looks well, and I would love to cheer a Lucinda Russell winner again at Cheltenham. She does have great hair too. 2.25 If he jumps, and that is a big if, The Giant Bolster will take a hell of a lot of beating, and I really like him tomorrow. He loves a battle up that hill, and 15/2 is a bit insulting against that field. 3.00 Its all about Rathvinden. The fact that Willie states that its to see how he likes the track with March on the radar is enough of a hint. 3.35 Big Buck returns!!! He surely will go off odds on? If not, I will be putting some of the earlier winnings on him 4.10 Nesterenko - First time Barry has been on him. He will make up for the shocking ride the horse was given last time 14/1 is a cracking price
Evening ladies- Pricewise Selections for tomorrow 2:25 Cheltenham: Restless Harry (16/1 Corals) 2:50 Leopardstown: Talbot Road (8/1 Betfred, Boyles, Ladbrokes) 3:15 Doncaster: Unioniste (11/2 Boyles) 3:15 Doncaster: The Druids Nephew (10/1 Corals) 3:25 Leopardstown: Sullane Chief (22/1 Bet365)
Could the bookies know something that we don't? They could be on a recovery mission after Wednesdays bashing.
Said on Friday's thread Big Bucks looks a serious bet at odds against. He's surely going to win this well?! Crikey how many odds against horses do you see with eighteen 'ones' against there name...Staggering.
Evenin all Off to Cheltenham early, so a few selections for me 12.40 Ronaldinho ew toppy with you all the way 13.15 its between Dark lover or Renard D'irlande 13.50 Our Mick backed it last year so the kiss of death Toppy 14.25 you might think I'm a nutter but pigeon Island ew this race doesn't look strong to me and with the heavy rain forecast who knows 15.00 Aubusson cd 7lb claimer say no more pipe horse could be dangerous 15.35 Quartz de Thaix ew 16.10 hartside ew just a feeling good luck.
