I always start to look at the Football365 Run-in table at this time of the season. It has been very accurate for us over the past three seasons. On season-long form it has us finishing 12th; on recent form 10th, above both Villa and Hull. I tend to look at this rather than try to predict what will happen each game and add up points; we all know that very strange results happen. Of course it's not fool-proof, it has Swansea going down based on recent form which won't happen. But overall, it's a great way to avoid getting dragged into the 'sky is falling down' reaction to individual results.
OK a slightly different take on the fight at the bottom.I wasn't sure whether I should have posted this on "It's a numbers game" thread. Those teams on 18 points now need 5:5:6 to reach 38points.Now given that all of them will still have at least six of the nine teams that are not involved in the relegation battle and can't expect much from those it means that the five wins and five draws really need to come from the teams currently ranked 11-20.In other words every game against those teams is a "must not lose" match.Clearly this isn't possible.The only way they can get draws is if those games yield a point each which cuts down on potential three point hauls and doesn't help overall.For this reason I now think that 36 may be the survival mark. Of the teams involved the spread of games to points is this: Villa +2,Hull,Norwich +1,Stoke =,WBA,Swans -1,Palace -2,Fulham-3 and Hammers,Sunderland,Cardiff -4.So if the bottom three avarage a point per game,rather better than they have to date the bar will still be set at 35 for survival. One final point on our run in.It is quite possible that by the last few games the season will be over for these four sides.Title either won or lost,top four either in the bag or out of reach.On the other hand it may not be over for a whole clutch of relegation threatened sides.There could be some pretty desperate fights involving those who were not reckoned on being anywhere near the fray when the season began.
CT, forgive me for not fully understanding this, but I simply can't see how your analysis, and particularly the spread, comes to 36 required for survival. At the current rate, it can't be much more than 32 points (with a good goal difference) or 33 without, if taking "just above" West Ham as the target for survival. I appreciate that one out of the three current relegation candidates is likely to do well, possibly even two, but that will come at the expense of teams just one, two or three points ahead of them. For survival to require as much as 36 points, by my estimation that would require two teams out of the bottom five or six increasing their points per game by over 30% (getting 17 points instead of their current form of 13 from the remaining games)!! I suspect that a couple of the teams will do well, but at best I feel that points for survival will be around 34, unless the top teams suddenly start dropping lots of points (note that each of Everton, Liverpool, City, Chelsea and Arsenal are very rarely dropping points other than against each other, and the likes of Tottenham, Newcastle and Man U are not dropping points like their equivalents last season). Am I missing something?
rob, it's looking like that isn't it, unless as you say some of the top half teams start losing games to teams near the bottom. Given the amount of teams involved in the bottom half, there are going to be a lot of six-pointers left.
I was thinking similarly on this CT, and I suspect the discrepancies will widen as the number of games left drops. I suspect this will squeeze the bottom 5 quite severely and from those at the moment I would choose Fulham, Sunderland and Cardiff to go down with Palace next favourite. If City can pick up points against Newcastle and Cardiff the situation could improve dramatically. Next week's matches: Crystal Palace v Hull City Manchester United v Cardiff City Norwich City v Newcastle United Southampton v Arsenal Swansea City v Fulham Aston Villa v West Brom Chelsea v West Ham United Sunderland v Stoke City City's game against Cardiff in two weeks will be a key match
Towards the end of the season you do tend to see some unusual results re: top teams vs bottom teams, purely based on teams at the bottom scrapping for their lives... So whilst it looks like a low survival points tally is enough to survive at the moment, that might not be the case come the end of the season. 32 would be remarkably low and if such scenario occurred I would suggest that a number of teams will be on the same points tally - maybe a repeat of survival day (back in 2005?) As CT remarks on our run in... it depends what the stakes are as to which teams turn up. Too early to tell right now, but could swing either way...
Judging by current points tally and all other factors, it does seem to me that 2005 is the best analogy for the season so far
Sorry, missed this. Yes, exactly. My other reason for feeling a very low point tally is on the cards is exactly because of all the six-pointers remaining. That might sound odd, but my point is that these games are very tight and both teams will be happier to settle for a draw rather thanwanting to risk a loss - we so easily could have drawn against Hull on Saturday. Draws reduce the overall number of points on the board, so lowering the totals. With 11 teams in the mix for relegation (though I actually think that Villa and Hull are close to safe), there are a lot of teams who will not be willing to lose. It is very tight and because of that, I feel it is likely to remain tight
An interesting one that. By my calculations I'd say they only really need another 11-13 points from 16 games to survive, which you would think is pretty likely. However, I'm assuming that you are basing this on the fact that they have played the entire bottom half excluding West Brom and Swansea at home? And those two teams are no mugs. Given current away form, you would say that Hull might be doomed, but then equally their away matches have all been against top half teams. I would say their performance at ours on Saturday suggest they will pick up points away from home, but that's no guarantee if they get into a rut of losing at home too. A tricky one! I feel like they only really need to win two away matches against the bottom half teams and they will be safe.
I certainly don't think they're anything like doomed, and chances are they probably will have enough points on the board by the time May comes round, but I still have an inkling that the wheels are going to come off at some point. They've got a massive month coming up with games against Palace, Sunderland and Cardiff looking like the proverbial six-pointers. I hope Hull stay up as I've always liked Stevie Bruce and because I think they have done brilliantly thus far, however I've seen a lot of people ruling them out of a relegation battle already which is ludicrous as for me the big test will be how they fair without Huddlestone and how they get on as they start to pick up injuries in their relatively small squad. Not entirely convinced £15m on their two new strikers is particularly good value for money either if I'm being honest. 6/1 just looks massive to me, especially with so much of the season left to run.
I agree, it loks incredibly generous, especially when you consider they are still involved in the FA Cup and Europa League, two potentially undesirable distractions that might come back to bite them. They have had a poor run recently, though to be fair they have had some tricky games, I think they'll have enough to get over the line. They need Michu back and soon
I do fear for them Tony, the curse of the Europa League strikes again maybe. The old adage "Too good to go down" might be tested here and it could be a South Wales double because I don't fancy Solksjaar one bit.
Just had a look through some of the forthcoming fixtures - Sat 29th March looks interesting. 8 of the teams in the lower half of the league are playing each other Stoke v Hull Sunderland v Hammers Swansea v Norwich WBA v Cardiff
o/t but not worthy of a seperate thread, with no game for 10 days, i wonder if the players have gone away for some warm weather training. Certainly Newcastle have done it.
Rob, I certainly would not rule out the survival mark falling,it's just that I don't now think it will exceed 36 simply because of the number of sides involved.But I was allowing for that occasional upset.Hopefully when Citeh come to Carrow Rd! Let's be 'avin em!
Ah, I see, so your prediction is based on the "upper end" of the probable points needed for survival then? I suppose that's a safety first approach!!
I'd be willing to take an evens bet on City finishing above Hull. I always feel that the second half of the season is hard for newly promoted teams as the initial enthusiasm begins to run out. As for us, as RvW finds some form and others return from injury, there should be far more scope for improvement.
